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Man of the Hour: Grand Final Spectacular

Hello everyone and welcome to the Man of the Hour: Grand Final Spectacular. I am Brodire2012. So unless you haven't been following this sub (or don't watch the sport news/Nine at all), you would know that this weekend is the Grand Finals for the AFL and the NRL. Of course, we are here to talk about the better of the two sports... the NRL Grand Final. This year we have the nearly unstoppable minor premiers, the Melbourne Storm taking on the JT-less underdogs, The North Queensland Cowboys. Today, we have a big post. I will start by giving some history on the grand final itself and then we will have an indept look at both teams. Of course that's not the only game we have on tomorrow. In the final Holden Cup match we will ever have, the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles hosting the Parramatta Eels and for State dominance we have the Penrith Panther's team from the NSW Cup taking on the PNG Hunters from the QLD Cup... Well, I guess that makes sense. I was going to look at those other two games but I ran out of time. So with that being said, let go over some history first.
 
If you remember seeing the 1908 grand final live as a kid. You're a fucking liar because you would be over 110 years old, unless you found immorality than in which case... well done. For the rest of us non-immortal souls, we can look at the history books... or in my case, Wikipedia. 1908 on the 29th of August at the Royal Agricultural Society Showground. The two remaining foundation teams, the Rabbitohs and the Roosters (back then Eastern Suburbs) were the first combatants. It was a close game, no thanks to the Rabbitohs 5/8th and goal kicker Arthur Conlin when suddently from a scrum, Rabbitohs Lock Harry Butler scored to give them the win. The final score was 14-12 in front of a crowd of... about 4,000. And here we thought the Roosters have bad crowds now, it's always been a problem. 109 years later and 96 grand finals later (12 years were either forfeited or had no final) we are here. Since 1908, the Rabbitohs has recieved 21 titles, the most in the history of the competition. The St. George Dragons are up there with 15 titles, the Roosters with 13, Balmain Tigers with 11 and the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles are leveled with 8 titles. In terms of runners up, the Roosters takes the pole position with 15 GF losses, the St. George Dragons and Rabbitohs are tied with 13, Manly are next with 11, Bulldogs with 10 and Balmain have 9. When the competition changed to the Australian Rugby League (ARL), we had three different winners, (Bulldogs, Manly and the Newcastle Knights) taking the trophy, meanwhile Manly also had 2 GF losses with the St. George Dragons having 1 loss. The Super League War than happen with the Brisbane Broncos winning the only GF over the Cronulla Sharks. Finally in the NRL era of the game, the Broncos have the most titles with 3 wins, the Storm have 2 wins (4 wins but two were taken away due to salary cap issues), the Roosters and Manly also have 2 wins and everyone else (The Bulldogs, Penrith Panthers, Knights, West Tigers, St. George Illawarra Dragons, Rabbitohs, North Queensland Cowboys and the Sharks) have 1 win.
 
In terms of locations. The grand final happened all over Sydney mostly. We started with the Royal Agricultural Society Showground in the first few matches. The SCG hosted a few in the earlier years, the Sydney Sports Ground hosted a few as well. Starting from the 1952 GF to the 1988 GF, it was exclusively hosted at the SCG. From 1988 to 1999, the GF was changed to Sydney Football Stadium (Allianz Stadium) except for the Super League GF between the Broncos and the Sharks, that was played at QEII Stadium in Brisbane. Then from the start of the new millennium to now, it's been played at ANZ Stadium. With ANZ getting some renovations in a few years, the final will once again have a new home. Starting from the 1986 Grand Final, the Clive Churchill medal has been awarded to the best player on the ground. Clive was one of the original legends of the game playing for Souths at Fullback. Played for a NSW representative team and a Queensland team, coach Souths with a 64% win rate and was named Fullback in the NRL's Team of the Century and is part of the ARL Hall of Fame. There has been some legendary players to win this award like the first winner, Peter Sterling, Alfie Langer, Darren Lockyer, Andrew Johns and Cliff Lyons.
 
Ok, I think that's enough history. I think now we can look at the teams... But before we do, I need to do some house keeping. During the week, I sent out a survey about the Grand Final. We had a total of 104 people do the Survey Monkey one (this was before I realised you can only have 100 viewable answers with a free account so 4 people's answers aren't counted). And I also had three people message me privately because the survey wasn't working for them/I shut down the survey. I just want to point out the fact that I could only see 100 answers so all the totals will be 103. I asked for the reddit username just because i was curious and thank god no-one had an issue with this. (Tho, I did get a funny answer saying 'Anon, this isn't the marriage survey'), others skipped that question which was fine. So we start with Question 2. "Who are you going for in the 2017 NRL Grand Final and Why?" From the first 100, we have 98 answers. (Thanks u/ohhh_j and other person). From the 101 answers, the Storm recieved 26 votes or 25.74% of all the votes with the Cowboys getting 75 votes or 74.26% of all the votes. I wasn't too surprised by this due to the fact that fellow user u/N3GNK doing his own survey asking "Which team do you hate the most?" With the conclusion of that survey having the Storm on top and the Cowboys being 3rd last. There was a total of 60 comments on the survey page. A lot of them were people saying "That's my team." A lot saying "Fuck the Storm." People were making comments saying it would be good for Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk to finish with a win, others saying they want them to go. Quote a lot of comments pointing out the underdog nature of the Cowboys which i'll talk about later. u/ttdlxgreg saying he was going for the Storm because "Have them in a sweet 5 leg multi." which was the most unique answer so well done and I hope you go well with the multi. So I guess as far as NRL is concerned, the North Queensland Cowboys take the points.
 
NQL +1
I'll explain the points in a moment.
 
With this chance, I decided to ask about the other two games as well. Question 3 asked, "Who are you going for in the 2017 NYC Grand Final and Why?" With the options being Manly and Parramatta. It was sad to see that out of the 100 people who did the main survey, 7 people skipped the question. From a combined total of 96 answers, the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles got 21 votes or 21.88% of all the votes. Parramatta got 75 votes or 78.12% of the votes. Again, this wasn't a surprise. People hate Manly with a burning passion, not as much as the Storm but it's still up there. This time we only have 49 comments... and most of them just say 'Fuck Manly." u/Yew420 said "So I can say the Eels won a premiership." Which isn't wrong at all. u/Funztimes voted for Manly because "Two teams winning from 8th would be awesome." Which is also a fair statement to have. Finally we have u/Cheesepenis who voted for Manly becauuse "I am Jason Taumalolo." Can't argue with that.
 
Finally, we have Question 4 that asked "Who are you going for in the 2017 Interstate Clash and Why?" The two options were the NSW Cup Penrith Panthers team and the QLD Cup PNG Hunters team. To my surprise we actually had a 100% of answers on the survey which was nice to see. From 103 total votes, the Penrith Panthers got 17 votes or 16.5% of all the votes and the PNG Hunters getting 86 votes or 83.5% of the total votes. The odd thing is, the votes for the Hunters were not because of hatred for the other team, the votes are for the Hunters. Lemme explain. From the 42 comments on the survey, a lot of votes are saying because it's the 'QLD' team in the game but more are voting for them because it would be a good story for the PNG community. And I 100% agree. PNG is the only country that has Rugby League as its national sport and for them to win this match would be fantastic for them. Not really any joke comments in this one (expect for Jason 'Cheesepenis' Taumalolo) which was nice to see. Thank again for everyone to participated in the survey.
 
Okay, so I better explain the point system from two paragraphs ago. This will help to determine who 'Man of the Hour' pick is for the Grand Final. There will many chances for both the Storm and the Cowboys to get points. I will keep a tally and there will not a draw (hopefully). So the Cowboys get the first points. The next set of points will be based on the tipping of different media sources and the team that gets tipped the most gets a point. Starting with NRL.com, they have 18 tippers and 4 of them has tipped the Cowboys with 14 tipping the Storm. So the Storm get a point.
 
MEL: 1|NQL: 1
 
Theroar.com has an article by Scott Pryde where he goes over key players. He comes to the conclusion that the Storm will win so chalk another point for the Storm.
 
MEL: 2|NQL: 1
 
Fox Sports... doesn't have any tips as far so no points for anyone. Same with Big League, they usually have tips but I don't have this years copy so again, no points. NRL HQ on the Syndey Morning Herald website does have tipping and while at this point in time not everyone has tipped, 7/10 has tipped Storm so I think its safe to say they get the point.
 
MEL: 3|NQL: 1
 
Looking at the betting sites. Sportsbet, Ubet and Crownbet each have the Storm as the favourites so that's another point for the Storm.
 
MEL: 4|NQL: 1
 
So currently the Storm have a 4-1 lead. But that can change and I have something special for the GF post. We will have our first guest writer in the series (first guest to send content for this series at least, i'm not including the survey or the updates to other posts or the quotes on the Steve Menzies post). We are going to go over some instresting facts and stats coming into this match. Now unfortunately I don't have the budget to get David Middleton to do stats for a shitty little web article on reddit. And while I would have gone to NRL's own stat man, I decided to go with someone who recently popped his head out in the community. So, thanks to u/SpoontangWild for your work and do you thing.
 
Thanks to Brodire2012 for the heads up on this. As always, doing these stats is a fun thing for me to do for /nrl and the fact he saw this and wanted my input to compliment his awesome work was validation in knowing what I do is appreciated. So cheers for the request and it's been fun my dudes.
 
We still start off with some stats about the Grand Final itself. This is the first Grand Final between the Melbourne Storm and the North Queensland Cowboys. This is the second GF in three years and the third GF overall to not feature a NSW team but this will be first time there will not be a single NSW rep player in either teams, the closest will be Jordan McLean who was 19th man for NSW in Game 1. Including 18th man, 11 QLD players will be in the Grand Final. 7 from the Storm (Will Chambers, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith (c), Billy Slater, Tim Glasby, Cameron Munster [18th man in Game 2, started Game 3] and Felise Kaufusi was 18th man in Game 3) and 4 from the Cowboys (Justin O'Neill, Michael Morgan, Gavin Cooper and Coen Hess). This will also be the first time the minior premiers will take on the 8th place team in a Grand Final. The last time a 8th place team made the Grand Final was in 2009 with the Parramatta Eels and they had to take on aMelbourne Storm team as well, (except this time the Storm are legal). The Storm are looking to win their fifth NRL title overall and their third legitmate title. This will also be their first Grand Final since the 2012 GF against the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs. The Cowboys are looking to win their second Grand Final overall and their second in three years. Of course that Final was against the Brisbane Broncos in 2015 (This is Brodire stepping in, Idk what Spoon is talking about, there wasn't a Grand Final in 2015 but whatever). A suprising fact, the Cowboys will be considered the away team for a third time in a grand final. The Cowboys will have a little advantage as they have two former Melbourne Storm GF players in their team, Justin O'Niell who is in the centres and played with the Storm in the 2012 GF and Ben Hampton on the bench who was with the Storm last year. If the Cowboys do win, they will be the first team to win from 8th and the first team to win from outside the top 4 in the NRL era. The lowest ranked winner in recent memory was the Bulldogs in 1995 when they came from 6th. They will also be the first team since the Roosters in 2002 to play and win all four games during a finals series.
 
Let's move to facts about the teams. The last two meetings in a finals series were both played at AMMI Park. The Cowboys won the 2015 Preliminary Final 32-12 to make the grand final that year and then the following year, the Storm striked back with a 16-10 win in the 2016 Qualifying Final. The Storm's record at ANZ Stadium in finals games is currently at 5 Wins, 0 Draws and 4 Losses. Their last win was in that 2012 GF. The Cowboys currently sit at 4 wins and 3 losses with their last win being against the Eels two weeks ago. This will possible be the final time that the big three (Billy, Cooper and Cameron) will play together with Cooper having one eye on retirement and the other eye on Tara, Billy might follow suit and retire after this season as well. Cameron will still be playing next year and possible years after.
 
Time for points. Overall, the Storm and the Cowboy have played 35 matches against each other with the Storm winning 25 game to the Cowboys 10. But in finals games, there has been three games with the Cowboys winning 2 games to the Storms 1. The first match was in 2005 with the Cowboys winning 24-16. The Storm has won both of the clashes this year against the Cowboys. The first one was in the Origin affected match in Round 15 when they won 23-22 in Melbourne thanks to a Brodie Croft Field Goal and then again in Round 22 when the Storm won 26-8 in Townsville. On top of that, it has been since that 2015 Preliminary Final game that the Cowboys last beat the Storm. Cooper Cronk is the most experienced player on the ground... in terms of grand finals with him playing in 6 other Storm Grand Finals since 2006. Also under the new NRL Final System (from 2012 to now) (And yes, there is no creative name, it's just called NRL Finals System). All winners have come from the top 4. Hell, since the start of the NRL era, no winners have come from the bottom half of the top 8. Finally looking at GF experience. The Storm have more total games experience with 27 GF games compared to the 14 from the Cowboys but the Cowboys have more players with experience with 13 players compared to the Storms 12 players.
 
To the actual game, it's the best team over 26 rounds versus the best team currently. My mind says Storm but my heart says Cowboys so hopefully for you Cowboys fans, it's a repeat of 2015. But I'm seeing the trophy head south so Melbourne by 10 with Cam Smith getting the Clive Churchill.
 
Thanks Spoon, it was a pleasure working with you. Let's count those points. The Storm will get points for winning more games than the Cowboys, winning both games this year, being inside the top 4 and having more GF experience. But the Cowboys get points for more GF players and more finals wins against the Storm. This makes the score...
 
MEL: 8|NQL: 3
 
We will now go into a bit of an indepth look at the two teams. Now, here's a disclamier. I'm not a genius. I don't have stats on every single player with every single thing they did this season. This is as much in dept that I can do and I want to do. With that said, let's start.
 
VS
First, we will compare every player in their position in three stats. 1 point per team for every win so there are 17 points up for grabs. What stats are they? If you guys remember earlier in the week, I had two surveys, one was the one I talked about earlier, the other one was asking what were the most important stats in every position. I got six responses and I picked the top picks/one's I could find. We are going this by comparing postition and number. Aka Fullback on Fullback, Winger with 2 on the back vs Winger with 2 on the back, like that. In terms of the bench players, I tried my best to compare similar players in terms of positions. So for reference, i'm comparing Slade Griffen and Ben Hampton as Hookers, Kenny Bromwich and Corey Jensen as Locks, Tim Glasby and Coen Hess as Second Rowers and Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Shaun Fensom as Props. Another point to note. Another note, games and grad finals do not include tomorrows game and finally, the stats will be averages for this season to make it fair to compare, expect for the Tie Breaker, that will be done in full numbers.
 
VS
1 Fullback 1
William ‘Billy’ Slater Name Lachlan Coote
34 Age 27
Innisfail Brothers Junior Club Windsor Wolves
298 Total Games 155
4 Total Grand Finals 1
0.8 Linebreaks 0.3
29.9 Kick Return Metres 31.6
0.8 Try Assists 0.4
2 Score 1
2 Wing 1 2
Suliasi Vunivalu Name Kyle Feldt
21 Age 25
Saint Kentigern College (RU) Junior Club Norths Thuringowa Devils
45 Total Games 72
1 Total Grand Finals 1
0.9 Tries 0.6
0.8 Linebreaks 0.5
132.4 Metres 124
3 Score 0
3 Centre 1 3
William Chambers Name Justin O'Neill
29 Age 26
St. Joseph's College Junior Club Hughenden Hawks
165 Total Games 137
3 Total Grand Finals 2
0.3 Tries 0.1
127 Metres 90.5
0.3 Try Assists 0.1
3 Score 0
4 Centre 2 4
Curtis Scott Name Kane Linnett
19 Age 28
Cronulla-Caringbah JRLFC Junior Club Port Kembla Blacks
14 Total Games 174
0 Total Grand Finals 1
0.4 Tries 0.2
121.6 Metres 125.7
0.3 Try Assists 0.1
2 Score 1
5 Wing 2 5
Joshua 'Josh' Addo-Carr Name Antonio Winterstein
22 Age 29
Le Perouse Panthers Junior Club Logan Brothers
35 Total Games 197
0 Total Grand Finals 1
0.8 Tries 0.2
1 Linebreaks 0.3
137.7 Metres 107.7
3 Score 0
6 5/8th 6
Cameron Munster Name Te Maire Martin
23 Age 21
North Knights Junior Club Turangawaewae
65 Total Games 25
1 Total Grand Finals 0
0.7 Try Assists 0.1
50 Kicking Metres 40.6
1 Linebreak Assists 0.2
3 Score 0
7 Halfback 7
Cooper Cronk Name Michael Morgan
33 Age 25
St. Laurence's College (RU) Junior Club Townsville Brothers
322 Total Games 127
6 Total Grand Finals 1
0.7 Try Assists 0.8
267.9 Kicking Metres 253.7
0.9 Linebreak Assists 0.5
2 Score 1
8 Prop 1 8
Jesse Bromwich Name Atalani "John" Asiata
28 Age 24
Manurewa Marlins Junior Club Wentworthville Magpies
175 Total Games 77
2 Total Grand Finals 1
50.2 Minutes 43.4
23.4 Tackles 18.4
9.83 Metres/Hit Up 8.16
3 Score 0
9 Hooker 9
Cameron Smith (C) Name Jake Granville
34 Age 28
Logan Brothers Junior Club Rockhampton Brothers
357 Total Games 79
5 Total Grand Finals 1
38.6 Tackles 31.4
6.1 Dummy Half Runs 3.6
0.9 Linebreak Assists 0.2
3 Score 0
10 Prop 2 10
Jordan McLean Name Scott Bolton
26 Age 30
Young Cherrypickers Junior Club Innisfall Brothers
83 Total Games 205
1 Total Grand Finals 1
40.9 Minutes 53.4
22.1 Tackles 31.4
10.47 Metres/Hit Up 9.28
1 Score 2
11 Second Row 1 11
Felise Kafusi Name Gavin Cooper (C)
25 Age 32
Bundaberg Brothers Junior Club Murgon Mustangs
61 Total Games 259
0 Total Grand Finals 1
33.1 Tackles 30.3
77.4 Minutes 77.5
8.68 Metres/Hit Up 8.69
1 Score 2
12 Second Row 2 12
Tohu Harris Name Ethan Lowe
25 Age 26
Tamatea (RU) Junior Club Goondiwindi Boars
115 Total Games 92
1 Total Grand Finals 1
29.6 Tackles 29.6
69.9 Minutes 70.3
8.92 Metres/Hit Up 9.41
0 Score 2
13 Lock 13
Dale Fiucane Name Vaai 'Jason' Taumalolo
26 Age 24
Bega Roosters Junior Club Papakura Sea Eagles
138 Total Games 138
3 Total Grand Finals 1
33.2 Tackles 27.9
8.38 Metres/Hit Ups 11
0.4 Errors 0.4
- Bonus Round -
8 Offloads 30
1 Score 2
17 Bench:Utility 14
Slade Griffin Name Ben Hampton
26 Age 25
Cobden-Kohinoor Keas Junior Club Temora Dragons
24 Total Games 62
0 Total Grand Finals 1
18.9 Tackles 14.6
1.6 Dummy Half Runs 1.7
0.1 Linebreak Assists 0.1
- Tie Breaker -
1 Try Assists 2
1 Score 2
16 Bench: Prop 17
Nelson Asofa-Solomona Name Shaun Fensom
21 Age 28
Upper Hutt Rugby Football Club (RU) Junior Club Bellingen Dorrigo Magpies
51 Total Games 159
0 Total Grand Finals 0
33.1 Minutes 39
18.2 Tackles 24.9
9.79 Metres/Hit Up 9.58
1 Score 2
15 Bench: Second Row 15
Tim Glasby Name Coen Hess
28 Age 21
Norths Knights Junior Club Across The Waves Tigers
85 Total Games 35
1 Total Grand Finals 0
24.4 Tackles 23.4
41.1 Minutes 55.9
9.19 Metres/Hit Ups 9.74
1 Score 2
14 Bench: Lock 16
Kenneth Bromwich Name Corey Jensen
26 Age 23
Manurewa Marlins Junior Club Bowen Seagulls
91 Total Games 16
1 Total Grand Finals 0
24 Tackles 14
8.41 Metres/Hit Up 9.45
0.2 Errors 0.0
1 Score 2
- Total Score -
9 - 8
 
(Behind the scenes look, Holy shit did that take forever to do)
 
Before anyone claims I rigged the votes, I didn't. I just went off what you guys want. With the scores now updated. We have
 
MEL: 17|NQL: 11
 
Let's look at other stats going into this game. The Storm are currently on a 9 game winning steak and the Cowboys are on a 3 game streak. MEL + 1. The Cowboys are currently working with the Queenland Trademarked 'Underdog Status'. NQL +1. The Storm has won 4 grand finals from 7 attempts which is a win rate of 57.50% and the Cowboys have won 1 from 2 attempts making their rate 50%. But two of the Storms wins were taken away because of Salary Cap issue so their rate goes down to 28.57%. NQL +1. Finally, the weather in Sydney seems to be cooler today. Which is the opposite of how it's been in Brisbane for the past week. That will suit the Storm better. MEL +1.
 
So, the final score here is the Melbourne Storm with 19 Points and the North Queensland Cowboys with 11 Points. This will mean that the 'Man of the Hour' Grand Final Tip will be the Melbourne Storm by 6 points. Thank you so much for joining me today guys. This has been planned for a long time and I'm so glad to have this done. Enjoy the Grand Final guys.
 
 
 
 
 
Okay, i'm not done yet. I have some people I need to thank. Thank you again to u/SpoontangWild for his contribution for this post, that was amazing and I'm glad you were able to find all those facts, I wouldn't have be able to do that myself. Thank you to u/UnluckyNumberS7evin for researching and sending me the information on all the Storm players, that was helpful and save a lot of time. Thanks to two of our fantastic mods, u/FourteenOEight and u/reznorhurt for helping with some behind the scene help and clarifying some rules for me. And finally thank you all for reading my silly posts. I starting this a little ago and the constant feedback and encouragement from the fellow redditors has been amazing. Thank you to those who help with either survey and those who PMed me because it wasn't working.
 
Now, I enjoy this subreddit and I enjoy reading others work and this grand final has shown some incredible posts so I'm just going to link to a few for those who want more readings.
 
u/AudioSky have a post about the Cowboys and the players they used which is a good read. (Fun fact, originally I was going to do that as well but as I was doing the begining of this post, this guy posted this which was a fantastic job. I ended up giving up because it was taking too long but i'll thought I would link to his any way.) Hit and Miss Cowboys 2017
 
Of course, NRL's very own stat man u/Tunza did a excellent 3 Part post series on the referees which was a great read. Referee Analysis Part 1, Referee Analysis Part 2, Referee Analysis Part 3
 
u/BJL6 does Youtube montages and he made an amazing montage for the NRL Grand Final. BJL6 GF Montage
 
u/CheeseLife1 and u/Dark_Vengence had similar but different ideas as they set up discussions talking about players with the least NRL games and Most NRL games played for a title. CheeseLife1's Youngest NRL Grand Finalists Discussion and Dark_Vengence's Oldest NRL Grand Finalist Disucssion
 
Finally, this one is not a reddit user submittion but while resourcing this yesterday, I found this post on theroar.com that was massive post that I think people should see. http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/09/30/melbourne-storm-vs-north-queensland-cowboys-the-ultra-definitive-nrl-grand-final-stats-preview-part-1-form-history-and-how-the-referees-will-influence-the-game/
 
As for this series. Next week will be the end of this season of 'Man of the Hour'. But, I will be back next season from the start for season 2. Next week won't be a player but it's just something I want to do. Okay, no I will go. Thank you all for reading and Go the Parramatta Eels U20s, PNG Hunters and the Melbourne Storm.
 
Sources: Just saying, the only things not in the sources are the betting sites because Reddit won't allow that, the suvey links because I don't want to give out who people tipped and finally all the wikipedia links because there were so many.
 
Wikipedia (sorry, not sorry)
 
Big League: Volume 96, Issue 30 (2015 Grand Final Issue)
 
Brodire2012's Survey: Grand Final Picking
 
http://redditpoll.com/poll/which-team-do-you-hate-most
 
http://www.nrl.com/PlayNRLTipping/tabid/11678/contentid/38/Default.aspx
 
http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/09/30/melbourne-storm-vs-north-queensland-cowboys-nrl-grand-final-preview-and-prediction/
 
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/tipping
 
Edit: Stupid spelling mistakes.
submitted by Brodire2012 to nrl [link] [comments]

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