The Daily Autist
Hot Off The Spectrum
TLDR of the News to Inform Your Moves (Monday was a lot. Even my post is long)
What’s up sluts. I’m back with another burst of autism. I’ve been Rick fuggin Rollin in the tendies (AKA not hemorrhaging money) and these posts have been fairly accurate. I’ll be adding plays to the NostraLosses section as a result to bring more clarity to my dumbass takes.
FIRST THINGS FUCKING FIRST THE ORIGINAL
ARTIST WHO DREW THE OLD LOGO HAS COME TO LIGHT IM SO FUCKING HAPPY. We’ll never get it back, but sometimes closure on it’s own feels good enough. What am I a fucking teenager? The rest of the sub was shit yesterday/this morning.I was shadowbanned for posting “Fear mongering Corona Content,” and yet 75% of the sub’s hot posts are exactly that but with even less info than I had. Rest is memes. No plays or info. Honestly kinda sad. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fnpz20/hey_yall_i_drew_the_original_baby_ama/ Obligatory Corona Dump (Monday news could not stop throating COVID content)
Things are in such a Twilight Zone State Amazon is getting credit for being “altruistic,” like they didn’t hike up prices since late January themselves and only altered their practices once Trump threatened Defense Production Act (DPA) notice they’re also only suspending, so once things are just slightly back to normal please price gouge errthang. https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3076638/amazon-suspends-almost-4000-seller-accounts-unfairly-priced-products
Costco is also getting unwarranted
credit. They won’t take back your tower of toilet paper or tub of hand sanitizer, which COSTS them money they already made. Did they have any problem hiking the price, refusing to limit sales per person, not give their employees PPE, or donate any relief from their excess food products due to banning eating at the location and numbers going down? Nah? ok. So the good guy is the company that profited off of fear and won’t provide the minimum financial relief to those who thought it was that extreme. Stop demonizing your fellow worker citizens. https://brobible.com/culture/article/costco-toilet-paper-returns-hoarders/
Companies getting high praise and both articles implying a return to normalcy soon. How does that affect the markets?
Normies are being told everything is okay and they will follow suit. Is everything okay? Absolutely not. These MFs in charge just announced unlimited QE yesterday nothing’s okay financially. Retard normie pump coming in. Financial News:
Trump is saying that unless 10,000 die in the streets soon he’s gonna “re-open” the economy after the 15 days. At this point it’s a bit of a walking Onion article. Thursday?” ITS A WAR WE WILL CAPTURE AND KNIFE COVID’S ASSHOLE”. Friday? “This is serious. I do not want to use any drastic measures but I will. This is very verry
serious.” Monday? “Isn’t being stuck inside fucking wack? Let’s open the pit up bro” I recommend watching the video with subtitles to get a transcript of his speech patterns. https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/america-will-again-and-soon-be-open-for-id701434357?chan=9qsux198
I predicted the Fed couldn’t devalue the dollar as fast as other countries could want it and it seems to be holding up. A very small dip from the news they’re willing to print unlimited moneys? The global economy is in trouble if that's still the stability bearer. Puts are lookin good, but they need to be farther out. 04/17 soonest for my comfort. Especially with the temporary re-open of the US economy. Seeing Reuters use “money bazooka,’ multiple times in the last week has been fantastic. https://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex/forex-dollar-slips-as-feds-money-bazooka-raises-hopes-of-easier-cash-supply-idUSL4N2BH2AF
Italy’s debt, tax, and unemployment relief are all being held up by congressional disputes and an ability to only handle a tenth of the paperwork that comes in. Sound familiar? Maybe ominous?
The population density in regions of Italy is our closest analog to how a free (eat my dick South Korea) country is gonna get hit. Their healthcare system is also tainted by for-profit companies and insurance so it’s also pretty similar medical coverage wise per capita. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-insight/banks-struggle-to-ride-to-the-rescue-in-europes-cash-crunch-battle-idUSKBN21B0OE
United Airlines is threatening to fire workers if they don’t get a bailout. I hope to fuck this is the tipping point and the government forces United to hand over their payroll list so the gov. Provide financial relief to their employees while United liquidates their assets or sells to some Saudi Conglomerate. Effect on market? PUTS ON UNITED BITCH THEY GOIN OUT https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/819401028/united-airlines-threatens-to-cut-jobs-if-coronavirus-aid-package-isnt-passed (From 03/20 but was drowned out by other news. Looks more and more likely airlines won’t be bailed out)
Everyday Fox business posts something for Boomers to buy more Ford or Dine stocks (idk what old people buy) and today they have some good ammo. Overnight futures were up. Pre-market today as of 06:31 EST is $234.72 after touching 238. Looks like today is going to be the bull trap day as the rumors of stimulus are hot again
. If it gets passed I expect a 245-248 top before the unemployment numbers Thursday fist everyone. Market effect? Short term calls as everyone gets high on optimism and long term puts for when they come down. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-futures-gain-ground-as-congress-moves-closer-to-a-stimulus-deal
Crypto is taking off after tanking yesterday. Overnight rally (NZ markets followed by Asian markets) carried it up 14% in the last 16 hours. It started to rise slowly after the QE announcement but really flew overnight and this morning. Cooling off now but already had a dip to 6650 and right back up to 6700+ While not always correlated, crypto is a key indicator right now in speculative confidence while people are budgeting for maintaining their lives versus increasing their future wealth. No link because every crypto site is owned by a Ponzi schemer. Fight me and my tinfoil fucking hat. Here are some squigglies and bars https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITBAY My NostraLosses Prediction?
The rumors of stimulus and the passed unlimited QE will provide market optimism today and tomorrow. Thursday’s unemployment numbers is the next scheduled big news so I wouldn’t get any short term puts unless scalping. If anything unexpected news could bring the market even higher with it being random good news versus any random catastrophic news. Market open will be up about 6% from the previous day’s close, so I expect a short term dip at open which would be a good spot to get quick calls to then ride the pump. Market closes above 235 and if stimulus passes along with more false optimism statements by Trump there’s possibly a sharp bull run to 245-248 by end of Wednesday. Plays to follow: SPY: 240c 03/27 once the first dip of day happens. If your bankroll allows for a few days farther out I would go for it. If SPY does hit 240, SELL call and BUY put for 228 04/01 at soonest. DIA: 190P 04/17 It hasn’t fallen nearly as hard as it should (another 5% imo) and the industries making it up are going to have numbers showing how bad the payroll cuts and profit loss has been. During today’s pump get some not so fucking expensive puts (made sure not to say cheap)
Any Stupid Tech Company: Retarded OTM call for 03/27 or later. With so many people being stuck at home the last week or so the tech companies are outperforming the market with the idea that: The high user rate means more $$$,
but if there’s more people on because they are not working or laid off, how do they have the money to buy shitty sponsored products on their feed? The kicker here is ads have always had near useless efficacy rates on social media so the fact they will continue to do a shit job might not change much. Anyway people are fucking dumb and tech gonna continue to rally this week. Signed, someone with 1.5k in TWTR Puts expiring over next 4 weeks.
Most people don’t even give you one play. I’m giving you multiple ways to lose your money. TLDR of my TLDR: Companies who profited off the crisis getting karma points for no reason. Normies think the crisis will be over next Friday. International currencies are still erratic but the markets are rallying today globally (sign of lacking underlying stability for said rally). Italy can’t pass anything or handle the paperwork from their previously set up process (AKA USA in 7-10 days under current stimulus proposals) and they don’t have a solution in sight. Stimulus has everyone rock hard for calls again, ride the short term rise and pick up puts while you’re up there. Just be a long term gay bear experimenting with bulls depending on the day. Results on my thoughts from last post 03/23: I was incorrect on circuit breaker open but was only 1% away and it did run up mid-day as called. So if you sold at 218 to buy calls to sell a few hours later, we nailed it boys. If you were aiming for price instead of time, it never hit 234 again which was a key test and you’re likely sitting on a fat red option right now. I was about half right which is all you need to be. I’ve also switched up Market affect and effect because I’m retarded and am unsure which is right anymore. Nvm grammarly fixed it. And again, I mean this sincerely,
I just started a demo account with CMC Markets, and I was wondering if every single asset listed is traded as a CFD? When learning about forex from BabyPips I had the mentality as if I'm literally trading the currency; as in if it were in person, I'd be giving some coins in one currency and receiving another. I guess since CFDs are linear derivatives it doesn't matter as much, but I still feel like there are some additional considerations when trading CFDs vs "actual currency"? Also, what are the maturities on these? Are there even maturities? All the quotes just say "USD/CAD", "EUJPY" etc, but from my understanding of a CFD, you agree to pay the difference from actual and agreed, much like a future, so why are there no maturities? submitted by
Question 2: For CFDs on things like equity indices, they seem to trade the whole day unlike their underlying. Does this mean say at 9pm EST the S&P500 CFD is just people essentially betting on tomorrow's open? And again with the futures thing, does after-market hours trading in these CFDs affect the real opening price the next day? (If markets are efficient and we assume there are people watching CFD prices like future prices, and then tomorrow's early trades become based on what the futures markets seem to say about the S&P, holding news and other things constant).
Question 3: For CFDs with maturity dates like commodities on this platform, how does that work? Again, I'm mostly confused at how CFDs operate without maturities and how they different from futures. On the CMC markets platform, many agricultural commodities come with the suffixes like either "cash" or a maturity date, but currencies and equity indices do not. What does this mean? Those commodities I'm clicking trade on...am I trading a corn CFD? Or a CFD on corn futures? What exactly is the underlying mechanic?
Question 4: yet another example. For the bond indices...what am I looking at on the platform? I just want to get a chart of US treasury yields but I don't think that is available on CMC. What am I looking at when I click UK Gilt Cash or US T-Bond Cash or US T-Bond Jun 2020?
Tl;dr Don't understand the mechanics of CFDs and thus I'm not sure what EXACTLY I'm actually trading when I trade things like currency, equity indices, commodities. Surely I'm not actually trading a physical commodity or actual shares. Please note this is specific to CMC markets.
One thing has not happened with Bitcoin that I am surprised by.
But firstly, a roundup of political and economic recent history as data points.
- The USA has declined from it's peak as the world's largest economy, and the BRICS in total (and China almost on it's own) are now a larger economic unit.
- Since 2008, the central banks of the major trading currencies in the world have engaged in unprecedented money printing (QE) as part of a largely unreported currency war. This inevitably will lead to a currency collapse for those currencies. Unfortunately this time the currency war is truly global and that implies a global collapse at an unknowable but fairly near time in the future.
- The USA in a fairly imperial manner, has triggered an increasing number of conflicts around the globe, and now regularly resorts to 'asset freezes' and 'sanctions' on an arbitrary basis to exert it's global influence. (in addition to more traditional military pressure exerted by it's roving armed forces and extensive overseas garrisons)
- Recently, the independence of SWIFT network was shown to be compromised when the USA forced it to suspend it's services to Iran.
- The American VISA/Mastercard networks and American banks have also been coerced into removing their services from organisations that the US administration has some grudge with. Wikileaks, Colorado (legal) cannabis traders, Bitcoin traders and so on.
- The BRICS countries, and especially Russia/China have now openly called for the 'de-dollarisation' of the world to constrain the actions of the USA, and Russia is now actively removing the use of VISA/Master card and replacing it with the Chinese UnionPay system
What has not happened, is for the BRICS countries to actively sideline SWIFT to remove the leverage that it gives the USA. What the BRICS need is a global payments system that is beyond US control and can cope with the type of settlements that SWIFT is used for.
The Bitcoin network already exists globally, and is mostly beyond control of any single country (though it's usage can be locally throttled as shown by the subtle restrictions instituted by China). As such, it has promise as a drop-in replacement for SWIFT. There is just one problem - the current 'pricing' of Bitcoin is not high enough to support world trade.
The Bitcoin pricing (approx USD 500 at present), is actively manipulated by 'whales' in the thin markets that exist. They move price up, then down and spike hope and panic to extract trading profits. Because the Bitcoin markets are so small and illiquid, the 'whales' are in fact only very small currency traders when compared with their peers in the global Forex markets.
That means, a sovereign backed trader could simply begin to 'buy the market' and achieve two goals almost instantly.
- Collect a small amount of Bitcoins for future use in trade settlement
- Reprice Bitcoin massively upwards to make it suitable for world trade in competition with SWIFT.
At one level, this would also be remarkably profitable in it's own right. The 're-pricing' of the payments system automatically generates a capital gain for the Bitcoin units obtains. For example: When I last looked, it would take only about USD 20 Million on two exchanges (BTC-e and Bitstamp) to buy 90% of the liquidity. That would drive the pricing up to over USD 1000 per BTC ... and generate on a 'mark to market' basis, about a USD 8 Million profit. The more extreme the 'buy in', the more this effect gets magnified. Add to that, the panic buy it would induce from other players and the upward re-pricing could easily be more extreme.
So the question is: What Bitcoin price is needed to compete with SWIFT?
One way to estimate this, is to take total official world trade (USD 71 Trillion) plus the black economy or System D (est USD 30 Trillion), and map it against the approx 13 Million Bitcoins that have been mined. Very roughly, that means if one Bitcoin is the equivalent of USD 10 Million, Bitcoin could settle all world trade. Clearly, Bitcoin would still be competing with USD as they will still exist, and the USD has it's supporters. So a lower target exchange rate would suffice - perhaps USD 1 Million to start.
At a guess, spending about USD 250 Million right now, especially as part of announced policy, would drive the re-pricing of Bitcoin towards a level suitable for trade settlement. For a BRICS sovereign nation, USD 250 million is small change.
From the BRICS perspective, the capital gains are not very interesting, but re-pricing the Bitcoin system to make it competitive against SWIFT really is.
Just as interesting from their perspective, even though Bitcoin is beyond the direct control of any government, the BRICS countries are not threatened by that lack of control. They all have actual hard assets and population at the core of their wealth. They are directly threatened by the financialisation of the world which disproportionately benefits the US and it's close allies to the BRICS detriment. The SWIFT system is one of the major components of that financial system.
Only the elites of the west (and not the general public), are threatened if US control of world finances is reduced via a competitor for SWIFT.
I am surprised that the various economics and treasury advisors in the BRICS countries have not suggested this obvious solution. A solution that is available almost instantly to a sovereign nation, without any major risk if it does not work.
In the mean time, even minor 'whales' from the wider Forex world could trigger this upward re-pricing if they want to!!
So I wonder who will be first to move.
Final note: Sovereign nations like China have a unique advantage. China could achieve the same out come by decree - simply by fixing an exchange rate for one Satoshi equal to one external Yuan (CNH) ... that would leave their capital controls intact, but instantly create the competitor to SWIFT that they need.
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Forex market is open 24 hours a day. It provides a great opportunity for traders to trade at any time of the day or night. However, when it seems to be not so important at the beginning, the right time to trade is one of the most crucial points in becoming a successful Forex trader. So, when should one consider trading and why? The forex market runs on the normal business hours of four different parts of the world and their respective time zones. The U.S./London markets overlap (8 a.m. to noon EST) has the heaviest ... Throughout the following forex trading week, the Sydney open at 5:00 PM EST is basically the same time as the New York Session’s 5:00 PM EST close the next day. In other words, when the market in New York closes on Monday at 5:00 PM, the market in Sydney opens on Tuesday morning in its time zone. Forex Market Hours. Forex trading is available 24 hours a day from 9:00pm GMT (10:00pm BST) until 9:00pm GMT (10:00pm BST) on Friday, including most U.S. holidays. Please be advised of the potential for illiquid market conditions particularly at the open of the trading week. The forex market is available for trading 24 hours a day, five and one-half days per week. The Forex Market Time Converter displays "Open" or "Closed" in the Status column to indicate the current state of each global Market Center. However, just because you can trade the market any time of the day or night doesn't necessarily mean that you ...
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