Sports Betting and Gambling Market/Industry - Statistics ...

Billy’s funniest thing from the sports weekend was the fact that game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals was later that night. I had action on game 6 plus a futures bet on Tampa and I still had forgotten that the Stanley Cup was going on.

submitted by Kanobe24 to DanLeBatardShow [link] [comments]

Python & Interactive Brokers (Due to the fact coronavirus stole my soul now that there's no sports betting)

I'll try my best to keep this clear and concise.
Last year, during my last semester of undergrad, I took an introductory Python course taught by a Google engineer who did a tremendous job and opened up a whole different thought process for me (s/o Jason Prodonovich). Being that this was the only programming language I ever learned besides R (which I mastered with ease in comparison to python), I must say I had some difficulties with Python. However, for some odd reason, my sadistic mind still loves Python and I would love to keep working with it.
With that being said - my passion are sports, politics, and the economy. I originally began working with sports betting via R - and still am due to the success I've had from it - but would like to expand my knowledge in the Finance field and learn how to curate an algorithm tailored to IB ( yes, obviously due to the fact coronavirus stole my soul and now I have no sports to bet on and I must take risks to remain sane in this world). The problem is, I don't know where to begin.
Out of all the times I've used IB, i've never made an investment based off of an Algo, just sheer knowledge and intuition. Ive been doing a fair amount of independent research on how and where to start writing an Algo for IB, but I feel as if I'm crawling in circles. Im not asking for a handout or someone elses Algo/skeleton, but if anyone could share any insights/links/recommendations or possible tutorial sessions my way on where and how to begin you will be rewarded and/or compensated.
I'm familiar with the market (and IB platform), awesome with sports betting (watch out billy Walters I'm coming for you), but clueless when it comes to writing an Algo for IB. Again, if anyone can relate and speak upon this topic Id genuinely reward you and appreciate you with the utmost respect.

Cheers!
submitted by _question_it_all to interactivebrokers [link] [comments]

Python & Interactive Brokers (due to the fact coronavirus stole my soul now that I can't bet on sports)

I'll try my best to keep this clear and concise.
Last year, during my last semester of undergrad, I took an introductory Python course taught by a Google engineer who did a tremendous job and opened up a whole different thought process for me (s/o Jason Prodonovich). Being that this was the only programming language I ever learned besides R (which I mastered with ease in comparison to python), I must say I had some difficulties with Python. However, for some odd reason, my sadistic mind still loves Python and I would love to keep working with it.
With that being said - my passion are sports, politics, and the economy. I originally began working with sports betting via R - and still am due to the success I've had from it - but would like to expand my knowledge in the Finance field and learn how to curate an algorithm tailored to IB ( yes, obviously due to the fact coronavirus stole my soul and now I have no sports to bet on and I must take risks to remain sane in this world). The problem is, I don't know where to begin.
Out of all the times I've used IB, i've never made an investment based off of an Algo, just sheer knowledge and intuition. Ive been doing a fair amount of independent research on how and where to start writing an Algo for IB, but I feel as if I'm crawling in circles. Im not asking for a handout or someone elses Algo/skeleton, but if anyone could share any insights/links/recommendations or possible tutorial sessions my way on where and how to begin you will be rewarded and/or compensated.
I'm familiar with the market (and IB platform), awesome with sports betting (watch out billy Walters I'm coming for you), but clueless when it comes to writing an Algo for IB. Again, if anyone can relate and speak upon this topic Id genuinely reward you and appreciate you with the utmost respect.

Cheers!
submitted by _question_it_all to algotrading [link] [comments]

04-01 18:45 - '[quote] These are literally the dumbest two sentences I've ever read on this site. Seriously, go get an education and don't discuss anything besides sports betting until then. Human races are a biological fact just like...' by /u/ColonelTarczynski removed from /r/germany within 0-9min

'''
There are no human races. The claim of the existence of races is racist in itself.
These are literally the dumbest two sentences I've ever read on this site. Seriously, go get an education and don't discuss anything besides sports betting until then. Human races are a biological fact just like sexes, while the word "racist" is what's made up by Leon Trotsky in the function of Soviet anti scientific propaganda. You're a damn idiot.
'''
Context Link
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: ColonelTarczynski
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Fun Facts: Do you know that sports betting is the most popular game for international players, accounting for 48% of the total market share of igaming industry, with an annual transaction of $24 billion? Now you know this is a huge profitable proven industry Faireum is in :)

@Faireumofficial adlı kişinin Tweetine göz at: https://twitter.com/Faireumofficial/status/1129376129268289537?s=09
submitted by exturuder to faireumofficial [link] [comments]

Fun Facts: Do you know that sports betting is the most popular game for international players, accounting for 48% of the total market share of igaming industry, with an annual transaction of $24 billion?

submitted by Abolaji11 to faireumofficial [link] [comments]

Faireum Fun Facts: Do you know that sports betting is the most popular game for international players, accounting for 48% of the total market share of the igaming industry, with an annual transaction of $24 billion? Now you know this is a huge profitable proven industry

Faireum Fun Facts: Do you know that sports betting is the most popular game for international players, accounting for 48% of the total market share of the igaming industry, with an annual transaction of $24 billion? Now you know this is a huge profitable proven industry submitted by iphygurl to ico [link] [comments]

Faireum Fun Facts: Do you know that sports betting is the most popular game for international players, accounting for 48% of the total market share of the igaming industry, with an annual transaction of $24 billion? Now you know this is a huge profitable proven industry Faireum is in :)

submitted by Faireum to faireumofficial [link] [comments]

Sports Betting Tips: Betting Trap Games in Sports: Fact or Fiction?

Sports Betting Tips: Betting Trap Games in Sports: Fact or Fiction? submitted by WagerTalk to WagerTalk [link] [comments]

Sports Betting Tips: Betting Trap Games in Sports: Fact or Fiction?

Sports Betting Tips: Betting Trap Games in Sports: Fact or Fiction? submitted by WagerTalk to WagerTalk [link] [comments]

Last night, it really hit me. This is pure gambling.

Last night, I was watching the Rolland Garros semi-finals (Grand Slam tournament - basically 1 of the 4 biggest tennis tournaments every year.)
I love tennis both as a player and spectator, and as I have been rooting for this particular player for many years now, whom yesterday had a real chance of winning and going into the Finals of Rolland Garros for the first time in his career, I thought to myself:
Why not place a small fun bet to make it all the more exciting.
I had never betted on sports ever before this, maybe once with $2 as a joke with some friends around 10 years ago or so.
The player I am supporting starts to lose during the first hour of the match. So I sign up, deposit the minimum $10, and find that the return rate was 4/1 (I.e. $10 gets me $50 if my player wins, $40 profit).
Being a massive fan of the player, I thought on top of my own excitement for the game, 4/1 odds were fantastic.
I am about to place the bet, but I find that the odds had shifted to 3/1 as my player had started earnings some points back.
Then to 10/3, then 3/1 again.
I found myself in a disgusting mindset hoping my player would lose a few points so that I can get in on the 4/1 odds, which I thought were great odds. I had never, ever wished for this player to lose a point before. This shook me quite a bit.
And it happens! I quickly place my bet, and I realise I had just bought the dip on a fucking tennis match.
The match resumes and my player keeps losing. I refuse to believe this will happen as like I mentioned previously, I am a massive fan, believe in him, and want him to succeed.
The match reaches a point where my player is nearly defeated, at which point I go back and look at the odds.
I see now the new revised odds at 7/1, then one more point is lost and I it goes to 8/1!
On the rush of adrenaline from the match and from my desire for my player to win, I deposit another $10 and place another bet at $10, with a profit of $80 if my player wins.
In the moment I realise I just doubled down on a tennis dip, and I have a position of $20 with a potential profit of $120.
A few points later and a lot of adrenaline, and it happens. I am thrilled.
My player makes a comeback, FUCK YEEAH, I scream!
He gets back in the game and for the next hour or so ups his game significantly, just as I had hoped. The match is a complete thriller filled with adrenaline and unbelievable tennis. I am loving it.
I am so happy for him and at the same time, I am thinking about my tennis tendies.
The game reaches a point from near defeat, to perfect equilibrium in score from the two players.
I log back in to the betting platform to look at how the odds are fairing now.
The $10 bet I had made early in the game was now worth $17.40
The $10 bet I had made later in the game was now worth $31.31
I now had the option to cash out nearly at 150% return, get out and enjoy the game and root for my player, or diamond hand this bitch and root for my player still.
I choose the latter as the $20 was insignificant to me, and think to my learnings that I will pass the fuck out before I tap out.
A few exhilarating points ensue, but it turns out my player had become exhausted. The rest of the game progresses and it's clear that he will lose. He cannot keep up the brilliant come back that had taken place thus far.
I go back into the betting platform and noticed that:
The $10 bet I had made early in the game was now worth $0.35
The $10 bet I had made later in the game was now worth $0.14
Not only was my favourite player about to lose, but my contracts would expire worthless.
And lose he did.
It was an incredible match and he won the hearts of many fans that night. He is an unbelievable player with so much promise as he is still very young.
The tennis they played was just fantastic.
---
The whole experience left me thinking to myself that the emotions, the mechanics, the complete and utter unpredictability where identical with options trading.
It was then that it really hit me that the term "investing", or "trading" platforms is the fakest front for what is actually absolute gambling.
I can't help but feel a bit dirty that I took something I am passionate for, something I've kept pure for so many years, a pure love for the sport and put inside emotions and mechanics of greed and opportunism. That's the definition of the ugly side of capitalism and I got the taste of it first hand last night.
I have deleted my betting account and will never engage in sports betting again after this. The rooting and cheering I had for this player in previous matches VS this one felt self-less and pure, whereas last night I found myself rooting on the fact that I'd make money. This left me feeling pretty shitty with myself.
I thought I would share this story with all of you retards, hoping that you will learn something and relate on a level which will benefit you in life.
---
tl;dr
1) Some things are best kept pure and outside the scope of making money.
2) Options are not financial derivatives, they are gambling derivatives.
3) Gambling can exist in every single aspect of life, and it can really consume you and your passions.
4) TIM APPLE 122C 11/20, LET'S FUCKING GO YOU ABSOLUTE FUCKS.
submitted by iBifteki to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

@nytimes: A soccer player scored a goal. A baseball player struck out. Who owns those facts? As sports betting takes off in the U.S., data is in demand. https://t.co/ZCGxDMMvk6

@nytimes: A soccer player scored a goal. A baseball player struck out. Who owns those facts? As sports betting takes off in the U.S., data is in demand. https://t.co/ZCGxDMMvk6 submitted by -en- to newsbotbot [link] [comments]

Facts About Sports Betting Businesses

Facts About Sports Betting Businesses submitted by SoPosted1 to u/SoPosted1 [link] [comments]

5 Facts about Sports Betting that Betting Services Don’t Want You to Know

5 Facts about Sports Betting that Betting Services Don’t Want You to Know submitted by UnderdogChance to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Why SSR smoked pot and KR snorts coke

Cannabis and LSD both have mental health benefits which is why people with anxiety and depression gravitate towards these drugs.
Stimulants like coke and meth are more likely to be used by narcissists and sociopaths/psychopaths (NPD and ASPD).
Yes, there is a link between personality disorders and the drugs they use.
Depressive, suicidal SSR fits the anxiety and depression usage of cannabis while attention-seeking, manipulative Ranaut is likely a coke fiend and/or meth head. Explains the crazy eyes too.
I understand the fatigue with this topic but i haven't heard any psychiatrists or psychologists weigh in on it. The state of mental healthcare in our country is pretty piss poor so people tend to self-medicate with drugs. Also, current medications aren't the most effective.
Psychedelics (LSD, psilocybin) seem to be the most promising in handling treatment-resistant depression. US FDA has granted "breakthrough therapy" status to psilocybin recently and LSD has proven itself to be an effective painkiller in recent RCT.
There's no cure for asshole just yet, though.
submitted by -mouth4war- to india [link] [comments]

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores
http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/2/10504765/henrik-stenson-wins-the-open-championship-quotes-facts-and-statistics
Submitted July 17, 2016 at 10:41PM by AbelTalley - https://www.reddit.com/news/comments/4te83w/henrik\_stenson\_wins\_the\_open\_championship\_quotes/?utm\_source=ifttt
via /news - http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/2/10504765/henrik-stenson-wins-the-open-championship-quotes-facts-and-statistics
submitted by Laurelais-Hygeine to NoFilterNews [link] [comments]

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores

submitted by AbelTalley to news [link] [comments]

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores

Henrik Stenson wins the Open Championship: Quotes, facts and statistics | Horse Racing News | Sports Betting Tips & Live Scores submitted by KellyfromLeedsUK to BreakingNews24hr [link] [comments]

NFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 5)

6-point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In my week 1 post, I did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. I'm grateful to u/hyperkinesis247 for inquiring if there's an edge regarding sweethearts. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

Previous Results

The plays last week were:
Off-the-board spread 6 pt 10 pt
Chicago +3 Win
Denver +1½ Win Win
Detroit +3 Win
San Francisco -8 Loss
Tampa Bay -7½ Win
I've been using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. For example, Carolina and Las Vegas both closed at +3 with many books and both covered. But they're not included in the list above because Bovada closed them at +3½. (You can verify the lines at sbrodds.com.)
I'm a Blackjack player. I didn't know the first thing about sports or sports betting when I started this tracking. In hindsight, I've learned that Bovada was a terrible choice. Nonetheless, Bovada was the choice and switching now seems statistically unethical.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
Teaser Year Team Record
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 61-23 72.6%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 63-19 76.8%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-16 76.5%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 16-2 88.9%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 27-10 73.0%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 16-9 64.0%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 17-7 70.8%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 7-2 77.9%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 22-1 95.7%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 24-5 82.8%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 23-4 85.2%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 5-0 100.0%
The chart above counts pushes as losses. You should strongly consider betting at a book that has a "pushes reduce" rule instead.
The reason why my results only count the last three years (2017-2019) is because that's all the time I've had to look at so far. There's no real reason why I'm actively avoiding 2016. I'll be making an effort to look at the 2016 data soon.

Advice

Once upon a time, Wong's strategy was reliable. Bookmakers used to routinely pay -110 for teasers and games tended to be lower-scoring in the past.
But in 2020, the payouts are stingier and NFL offenses are stronger. It would be irresponsible to automatically assume Wong teasers are still a winning strategy today. This post is not a suggestion to bet. Merely, this is an experiment to see if this strategy is still favorable in today's environment.
Before last week, I expressed concern over the fact that our selections were 16-5-1 against the un-teased spread. This is good news if you had bet real money on these games in the past. However, it was a red flag in terms of sustainability moving forward. We have no reason to believe that our win percentage against the un-teased spread should be higher or lower than 50%.
Last week's results helped alleviate those concerns a little bit. The picks were 1-4 against the un-teased spread but still 4-1 in our teasers. It's a step in the right direction, but one week isn't enough of a sample size for me to consider flipping my advice.

This Week

As of the time of this post, the Bears number in today's game is all over the place depending on which book you look at. For my opinion on how I think this situation should be handled, see the Line Shopping section of my post last week. For the purposes of tracking the results, I remain steadfast in using Bovada's closing line.
As of now, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week is:
  • Buffalo +1½
  • Arizona -7½
  • Los Angeles Rams -7½
  • New Orleans -8
My recommendation is to use the closing line whenever possible, but this is especially true for Buffalo. Changing the time of game doesn't usually cause any problems with your bets, but changing the day of game could create headaches. Without getting into the exact details of all of the possible scenarios, let me just succinctly say that betting the Bills game before you know the exact day of game could create controversy.
For the purposes of tracking, Bovada's final line according to sbrodds.com will be used except in cases where that number is obviously and egregiously wrong.

Teasing Totals

There's two ways that a teaser bet can win:
  • Method X: you can beat the regular un-teased number, or
  • Method Y: the game lands among the range of 6 points you gained via line movement ("teaser window").
We've talked about needing a 73.9% hit rate on our teaser legs. This means that if your probability of X is around 50%, then your probability of Y needs to be about 24%. This means that 24% of the results need to fit inside your teaser window.
You can't use teasers as a security blanket. You can't use them defensively. A lot of people treat teasers in the sense that, "I like this pick but let me just give myself a few extra points of wiggle room in case things go wrong." With this logic, it's very hard to get your Y probability up to 24%.
You need to intentionally seek out games that will land in the teaser window. You need to make a deliberate effort to win some games via Method Y. Here is a histogram of all of the final margins in 2017-2019. You can clearly identify the peaks at 3 and 7. (And the numbers in between 3 and 7 are all not-too-shabby either.) If you're intentionally trying to win via Method Y, you'd do well to put 3 and 7 in your teaser window.
Now look at this histogram of all of the final totals in 2017-2019. Where's the peak? What's the "sweet spot" that you want in your teaser window? How are you going to aggressively attack that option?
People have been claiming that they've been successfully teasing totals with their method. Something like "tease the Over when both teams have an 0-2 record" or other equivalent bullshit. I encourage those people to provide real statistics instead of anecdotes. How often are you winning via Method X and how often are you winning via Method Y? First of all, I'm not convinced it's a winning strategy. But even if it was, I can guarantee the long-run results are because X is really large and Y is still rather small. If your X is really large, just bet it straight.
On a normal parlay, two different selections each at -283 parlayed together pays you -120 for the whole ticket. Let's understand that's what a teaser is: it's a parlay with each leg at a -283 price. So if you're going from the straight -110 price (un-teased number) to the new -283 price (teased number), you better make sure that the 6 points you're getting are damn well worth it.
Those interested in teasing totals should look at your book's alternate lines to see what the true cost of 6 points is. (Hint: it's not even close to -283.)
I never said don't play totals. I never said don't play alternate totals. But teasing them is unequivocally wrong.
submitted by blackjack_counter to sportsbook [link] [comments]

The Jete is terrible, and cannot score on our god tier defense. Make him see ghosts

submitted by dajforever to buffalobills [link] [comments]

Trump's Election Day vaccine "miracle"

Welcome, dear readers, to my semi-regular coronavirus roundup.
Housekeeping:

EDIT: TRUMP ADMITTED TO KNOWING DANGER OF COVID WEEKS BEFORE ACTING

Bob Woodward's new book reveals that Trump was aware that the coronavirus was dangerous and "more deadly than even your strenuous flus" even as he publicly downplayed the threat and failed to act to save lives. (article now updated with audio of Trump's interview)
"This is deadly stuff," Trump told Woodward on February 7.
In a series of interviews with Woodward, Trump revealed that he had a surprising level of detail about the threat of the virus earlier than previously known. "Pretty amazing," Trump told Woodward, adding that the coronavirus was maybe five times "more deadly" than the flu.
Trump also admitted to intentionally downplaying the threat:
"I wanted to always play it down," Trump told Woodward on March 19, even as he had declared a national emergency over the virus days earlier. "I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic."

Election day vaccine

A group of nine leading pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies pledged on Tuesday to only seek approval for Covid-19 vaccines demonstrated to be safe and effective.
The pledge comes as Trump hypes the possibility of a vaccine before Election Day. His timeline has been pushed forward from “by the end of the year” to “before November 1st” and, most recently, “during the month of October.”
During his Labor Day press-briefing-turned-campaign-event, Trump said: "[It's] going to be done in a very short period of time -- could even have it during the month of October” (clip).
Trump went on to explicitly ties the vaccine to his re-election schedule: “We'll have the vaccine soon, maybe before a special date. You know what date I'm talking about” (clip).
Despite saying the quiet part out loud himself, the president tried to cast Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the ones politicizing the vaccine process: “They’re going to make the vaccine into a negative… They’re saying ‘wow, Trump’s pulled this off, let’s disparage the vaccine.’ That’s so bad for this country, that’s so bad for the world to even say that and that’s what they’re saying” (clip). Unfortunately, many media outlets have portrayed the issue as a “both sides” argument.
Federal officials and health experts say Trump’s Election-oriented timeline is unlikely. NPR spoke with Moncef Slaoui, chief adviser for the administration's vaccine development program, who said he expects to have "enough vaccine to immunize the U.S. population by the middle of 2021.”
Case in point, development on the vaccine Trump was rumored to be betting on, the AstraZeneca-Oxford project, was put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant.
But the point may not be to have a vaccine fully available to the public; Trump can simply claim the “deep state” is holding things up, blaming Biden/Harris for the pandemic under his watch. Furthermore, experts say there is no way our government and existing infrastructure will be ready to distribute, administer, and track doses by November. Health departments will also need an infusion of federal aid, a proposal that seems out of reach with a Republican-controlled Senate afraid to spend any more money during the pandemic.
...many health departments are so overwhelmed with the current costs of the pandemic — such as for testing and contact tracing — that they can’t reserve money for the vaccine work to come. Health departments will need to hire people to administer the vaccines and systems to track them, and pay for supplies such as protective medical masks, gowns and gloves, as well as warehouses and refrigerator space.

America alone

Meanwhile, the U.S. is backing down from the global fight against the pandemic, further enshrining Trump’s “America First” perspective into official policy. The Trump administration declined to join a global effort to develop, manufacture, and equitably distribute a coronavirus vaccine, in part because the World Health Organization is involved. U.S. allies including Japan, Germany, and the European Commission back the effort.
“The United States will continue to engage our international partners to ensure we defeat this virus, but we will not be constrained by multilateral organizations influenced by the corrupt World Health Organization and China,” said Judd Deere, a spokesman for the White House.
  • Further reading: The Trump administration said it won't pay more than $60 million in dues it owes to the World Health Organization.
The U.S. Agency for International Development, in charge of distributing global assistance related to the pandemic, is shutting down its only pandemic-focused task force. Other agency bureaus and divisions will take on its functions.

Sturgis comes home

South Dakota (+120%), Iowa (+81%), and North Dakota (+66%) have seen the largest 2-week increase in COVID-19 cases in the last two weeks, compared to the two weeks before.
These three states were also the “epicenter” of the Sturgis motorcycle rally last month. The event packed nearly 500,000 people into a small town in South Dakota, with rallygoers attending from - and returning to - all around the country. Photos and reports from Sturgis documented a startling lack of face masks and social distancing precautions.
According to a new study, over 250,000 coronavirus cases can be contributed to the rally. Assuming a cost of $46,000/case, the authors estimated the rally cost $12.2 billion. “This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend,” they write.
SD, IA, and ND do not have statewide face mask mandates. In fact, the Dakotas are two of just five states that do not allow local officials to require masks (the others are ID, MO, and OK). Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has been told by the White House that the state’s outbreak is the steepest in the nation and urged officials to require mask-wearing statewide. Reynolds has yet to do so.

Alabama schools

Alabama has the fourth-most daily new cases per 100k people (after ND, SD, and IA) despite a statewide face mask order. The state has largely lifted all social distancing measures and has encouraged schools to reopen with in-person classes and sports. According to a NYT database, four-year universities in Alabama have over 4,000 coronavirus cases just weeks after opening.
The University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa accounts for over 1,300 of the cases. Professors at the school were reportedly told by the administration not to talk about the outbreak - not even to inform students if someone in their class tests positive. The mayor of Tuscaloosa let bars near the university reopen on Tuesday.
  • Further reading: Alabama is starting to see a payoff from its mask mandate, in place since mid-July. New covid cases have been cut in half over the past month and coronavirus patients admitted to hospitals fell to the lowest level since June.
  • Remember the news articles praising Trump’s new “tone” on masks? During Monday’s press conference, Trump tried to bully a reporter into taking off his face mask when asking a question (clip). The reporter, Jeff Mason of Reuters, refused. Apparently, this annoyed Trump so much that he was still griping about it on Twitter Tuesday (clip).

Trump pushes for sports

After weeks of haranguing schools to bring back sports, Trump has reportedly offered Big Ten football teams access to the national government’s reserve of rapid COVID-19 tests.
The new, cheaper […] tests could be the key that unlocks the door back to the Horseshoe and stadiums around the conference. And the White House might be willing to assist in that effort by potentially designating part of its supply to the Big Ten after buying 150 million rapid tests last week from Abbott Laboratories.
The president is so attached to the idea of college football resuming that he is pushing the Big Ten conference to go ahead without the participation of three schools, blaming the governors of Michigan, Illinois, and Maryland for the conference’s vote to cancel.

Mitch plays games

The Republican-controlled Senate is planning on voting on a scaled-down coronavirus relief package as early as this week. The “skinny” bill is unlikely to become law as Democrats feel it does not adequately address the magnitude of the crisis the nation is facing. McConnell is hoping a Senate vote on coronavirus aid - any aid - will help vulnerable Republicans up for re-election.
The Republican bill is expected to include a federal unemployment benefit, another round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funding, and more money for coronavirus testing and schools, as well as liability protections from lawsuits related to the virus. McConnell didn't release a price tag for the forthcoming bill, but it is expected to be at least $500 billion — half of the $1 trillion package Republicans previously unveiled in late July.
One of the reasons - perhaps the main reason - for the breakdown of relief bill negotiations may be new White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), who served with Meadows on the Oversight Committee, told The Hill:
“Closing deals is not Mark Meadows’s strong suit. His whole track record is: blow it up… If you ask yourself what’s the difference between April and May, when we did reach big, broad bipartisan consensus, and today, the variable is Mark Meadows.”

Miscellaneous news

Lost in the Sauce was so long this week that I had to omit a couple of sections. I’ll include them here instead.
Immigration: Federal Judge Dolly Gee ordered DHS to cease using hotels as detention facilities for migrant children it seeks to expel from the border.
Gee said the use of hotels for detention purposes violates the Flores agreement because the locations lack sufficient oversight, state licenses to hold minors and standards for the care of young children. Minors have also faced a "woefully inadequate" process to seek the help of lawyers, who have been barred from entering the hotels, Gee added, citing declarations from attorneys who said they struggled to reach detained children.
  • Further reading: “Watchdog confirms botched family reunifications kept migrant children waiting in vans overnight,” NBC; “Trump nominee had role in removing prosecutor opposed to family separations,” Guardian
Immigration: The Trump administration has drafted a proposal that would dramatically expand the number of people required to provide biometrics for their immigration applications, while also increasing the personal information the government can demand, such as eye scans, voice prints, DNA, and photographs for facial recognition.
Immigration: The Border Patrol made a dramatized YouTube video depicting a Spanish-speaking attacker stabbing and killing a man in a dark alley after escaping from U.S. agents - “a clip apparently created to dramatize President Trump’s depiction of migrants as fearsome criminals.” The agency removed the video following backlash.
Environment: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration opened an inquiry earlier this year into whether Trump political appointees illegally weakened rules meant to protect whales from oil industry seismic airgun blasting. Then, just as quietly, it halted the probe.
Environment: The Trump administration proposed a rule change that would make it easier to permit oil and gas drilling operations in national forests. The move comes as a watchdog report reveals the oil and gas industry has been allowed to pay far less than usual to the government for the right to drill on public lands under a controversial Trump administration coronavirus relief policy. Furthermore, the administration is seeking to fast track environmental reviews of dozens of major energy and infrastructure projects during the COVID-19 pandemic, including oil and gas drilling, hazardous fuel pipelines, wind farms, and highway projects in multiple states.
Environment: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service issued a proposal that would allow the government to deny habitat protections for endangered animals and plants in areas that would see greater economic benefits from being developed — a change critics said could open lands to more energy development and other activities.
World: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced sanctions against two International Criminal Court officials -- the Trump administration's most aggressive move yet to try to deter an ICC investigation into possible war crimes by US military and intelligence officials.
World: How Donald Trump took down the Robert Mueller of Latin America: At the center of the story is an alleged quid pro quo between Donald Trump and Jimmy Morales, a former television comedian who was elected president of Guatemala.
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Offseason Blueprint: the Los Angeles Lakers may win the title tonight, but their ambition won't end there

The NBA season is nearly over: be it 1, 2, or 3 more games left. With the offseason looming around the corner, we've been looking ahead with our OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each entry, we preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way.
Like the NBA, we've officially come to the end of the road and to our final team, the Los Angeles Lakers.
step one: know it will never be All Quiet on the Western Front
The Los Angeles Lakers have plenty of fans, but also plenty of people who enjoy watching them struggle (some even run their own sports websites.) It feels like they've been a punching bag for almost a decade now. Even when the team landed a coup and signed LeBron James, there were plenty of skeptics and haters picking at the roster and fanning the flames of front office tension. Even when the team followed that up with a trade for Anthony Davis, there were STILL doubters and haters camped at the gates.
At the end of the day, LeBron James and company only had one way to shut them up: win.
Now, no one can criticize them anymore. Whatever they did to get here -- it worked. LeBron James deserves a huge amount of credit for this presumptive title (no offense, Miami) but there's plenty to go around. Anthony Davis reminded the world that he's a friggin' beast. Frank Vogel did a great job getting the defense to play on a string, especially on the perimeter. The maligned bench with Rajon Rondo, Markieff Morris, and Kyle Kuzma even stepped up in a major way on the road to the Finals.
While the team may be drenched with champagne by the time you read this, they still won't be satisfied. LeBron James went back to Cleveland to win a title. He didn't go to L.A. and recruit Anthony Davis to win a title. He wants to win multiple titles. He may get his 4th ring after this year, which means he'll only be 2 away from catching Michael Jordan. If he can do that, then there won't be any doubt about his GOAT status. And honestly, it's possible. James still looks like a top 5 player (if not 1 overall), and Anthony Davis is in the heart of his prime. With a decent supporting cast around them, they're going to be in title contention for the next two or three years.
However, the Lakers can't get complacent. They deserved this title, but they didn't exactly beat Murderers' Row to get here. In fact, their playoff opponents had the weakest seed value and weakest W-L percentage of any title team since 2000. Next season may be tougher sledding. The L.A. Clippers could be a real threat with better coaching and better rotations. The Milwaukee Bucks could be a real threat with better health. Health permitting, the Brooklyn Nets have the star power and the depth to be a force themselves. It's going to be a dogfight next season. The Lakers still may be the top dogs in that fight, but they're going to have to scrape and claw to get that bone again.
step two: convince your free agents that It's a Wonderful Life
LeBron James is a champion for player empowerment, but that concept is going to put his L.A. Lakers in a precarious position this offseason. Some decisions with be out of their hands. The team has an inordinate amount of player options for next season, with 5 separate players having the right to opt "in" or "out" of their contracts. Let's take a look at each of those one individually.
The most important, of course, will be Anthony Davis. He has the choice whether to opt in to his $28.7M salary. It's weird to say, but $28.7M is a bargain. Davis is a 27-year-old superstar. He deserves the new max and then some. From the Lakers' perspective, the only question will be timing the extension in the best interest of Davis and the team as a whole. If they wait until next offseason to give him a full max, they may have some more wiggle room in salary to bring in extra free agents (in Offseason 2021, not Offseason 2020.) Perhaps they can convince AD to wait until then to accrue more years. At the same time, uncertainty isn't their friend. If the Lakers disappoint next season and LeBron James hits a wall (unlikely, but theoretically possible) then perhaps Davis doesn't want to stay tethered to this older roster for the long haul. Perhaps his relationship with James -- great now -- bleeds into resentment over time. Who the heck knows. Superstar pairings don't always end with "happily ever after." Even that remote concern would make me push for a max extension for AD ASAP.
The second most important player option will be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. When the Lakers first signed them, it raised some eyebrows and potential tampering conspiracy theories. These days, his $8.5M player option looks like a good value. KCP shot well this year and played hard on defense. Effectively, he looked like the player that Danny Green was supposed to be. Your hope here is that the Lakers have built enough goodwill with KCP and his representatives to make this a friendly negotiation. Whether that means he opts in, or whether that means he signs a long-term deal, it's a relationship that needs to continue.
step three: but convince others to ride off like Shane
Conversely, there are a few player options that the team may try to talk players out of taking. Avery Bradley missed the bubble for personal reasons, but the Lakers' backcourt did just fine without him. At this stage in their careers, Alex Caruso is probably better at the 3+D guard role. Still, it's going to be up to Bradley whether to return or not. He can opt in to his $5.0M player option. The value is OK in the broadest sense, but perhaps the Lakers are rooting for him to test the market elsewhere. The Lakers should take a hard line here and not offer him extra years; if Bradley leaves to chase a long-term deal, so be it. If he opts in, he may be used as a potential trade chip.
Meanwhile, JaVale McGee has a $4.2M player option himself. McGee started 68/68 games in the regular season, but he didn't always look like their best option in the playoffs. As he ages (now 32), he'll continue to struggle with certain matchups. I don't think McGee can match that $4M anywhere else, so trying to convince him to opt out may be a losing proposition. Again, if McGee opts in, then the Lakers need to consider utilizing his salary as a potential trade piece.
Some of those decisions -- whether they want to keep Avery Bradley and JaVale McGee -- may hinge on some other free agents on the team. Backup PG Rajon Rondo has his own player option of $2.7M. All season long, I'd been talking about Rondo as a potential liability for the team. Instead, he justified some of that "Playoff Rondo" talk. Between Rondo and Caruso, you'd prefer Caruso getting extended minutes. Between Rondo and Bradley, it's more of a debate. Rondo deserves more than $2.7M, so I expect him to opt out. Presumably, he appreciates the role and limelight here in L.A. and wouldn't play hardball. If he's amenable to a short-term, reasonable deal, then you'd want to keep him in house. If his playoff hype spirals into outsized offers (anything over $6M or so) then you should thank him for his service and wish him well.
The Lakers should treat backup C Dwight Howard (an unrestricted free agent) in a similar way. Now 34, he's become a role player. Moreover, his role -- as the more traditional center -- is no longer a valuable one either. Still, he's pretty good at that role -- arguably better than JaVale McGee. The team shouldn't over-invest in this one-two punch though. If Howard wants to re-sign for a bargain basement deal, great. If he expects a mid-sized contract or an extra year, then he may be on the move again. For both Rondo and Howard, I'd stand firm on 1 year deals. However, the team can potentially add in "team option" years on top of that. The purpose would be less to entice them into staying and more to make them potential trade chips (in terms of salary matching) later on down the road.
The Lakers will have more free agents to discuss. Markieff Morris is an interesting one; he looked like a shell of himself after some injuries, but he showed signs of life in the postseason. If that's legit, then he could potentially be a good rotational player for the team (when they go "small" with AD at the 5.) The verdict from team doctors will be crucial to determining his value. Alternatively, vets like J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters don't appear to have any value at all. Fortunately, they don't have player options either.
step four: solve the mystery of The Third Man
All season long, we heard that the Lakers would need a third star to emerge if they were going to win the title. Kyle Kuzma never got there, but it didn't matter. Perhaps we've just defaulted into a more familiar era of the NBA. Shaq and Kobe won without another "star." Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen won without another "star" (Dennis Rodman was more of an ultra role player.) With Kevin Durant removed from Golden State, perhaps the bar has been lowered back to reasonable heights for NBA title teams.
Still, the Lakers need to figure out who Kyle Kuzma is, and what his role should be. He averaged 16-6 as a rookie, but showed some signs of a "good stats / bad team" kind of player. That fear hasn't gone away. Since then, Kuzma's shot 30% and 32% from three over the following two years, and played poor defense overall. ESPN real plus/minus metric graded him as a -0.4 and -0.7 defensive impact, while box plus/minus had him at -1.2 and -1.0. That same BPM metric graded him below replacement level overall (-0.2 VORP).
Kuzma has played OK in these playoffs, but he hasn't had a major role. In fact, his minutes per game is down to 23.2 in the postseason so far, with 0 starts drawn. It's clear that Frank Vogel and the team don't believe he's the 3rd best player on the team. He may not even be the 4th or 5th best player.
You may ask: who cares? Kuzma isn't a world beater, but the Lakers beat the world anyway. Still, it's an important question hanging over their heads. Kuzma is under contract for one more year, and then will enter restricted free agency (at a time when they will be a lot of cap space out there.) Based on name value, he's going to get a decent contract.
If the Lakers don't believe he's worth decent money, it may be time to trade him now. (Realistically, the time to trade him was last offseason, but what can ya do.) Kuzma's $3.5M salary is easy to move, and the team can attach other contracts like McGee, Bradley, and Quinn Cook ($3M) to match a deal anywhere from the $3M-$15M range if need be.
What can the Lakers get for Kuzma on the open market? It's hard to tell. He's a polarizing name, so it may depend on whether their trade partner reads reddit or not. I'd call up Detroit and ask about Luke Kennard. If Houston's blowing it up, I'd ask about Robert Covington. If Minnesota's locked into Anthony Edwards at # 1, maybe they'd be open to trading Malik Beasley in a sign and trade. If you want to play dirty, you can tell Portland that Gary Trent Jr. (newest client of Klutch) is going to sign with the Lakers next season no matter what, so they may as well recoup something for him now. Fair? Ethical? Ehh. But hey, it's proven to be effective before.
step five: encourage others to hunt for the Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Lakers don't have much cap space this offseason, but that's not a major problem. They're not going to have to list job openings on monster.com -- available players are going to flock to them. The most obvious reason to join the Lakers would be to chase rings. However, it goes deeper than that. There's not a lot of teams with cap space this offseason, but there are plenty with space next season.
If you're a free agent who's not getting a lot of attention, there's one great way to get attention: play with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. You can inflate your stock for next offseason, when hopefully you cash in.
If I ran the Lakers, my first call would be to a veteran like Darren Collison. Collison took the season off to pursue his faith, but reportedly he may return next year. If so, he'd be a dream fit for this Lakers' rotation. Collison can run the point when LeBron James rests, but he can also serve as a complementary spacer. The former UCLA standout has become a very reliable shooter -- hitting over 40% from deep in his last four seasons. He's undersized and sometimes outmatched on D, but the team has Alex Caruso ready to match up with bigger guards. Collison's skill set would merit $10+ million in a good market, but perhaps NBA teams are going to want to see him "prove it" after his extended absence. If that's the case, the Lakers can thank their lucky stars and Jehovah for delivering him into their laps.
Other veterans who may be drawn to the Lakers like a moth to the flame would include: the underrated E'Twaun Moore (NO) and likable vet Courtney Lee (DAL). Moe Harkless (NYK) could probably get more elsewhere, but he may decide to bet on himself and inflate his price for next season.
Since Anthony Davis still prefers playing PF, depth at center will be more important for the Lakers than other teams. As mentioned, JaVale McGee will probably be back (barring a trade) and Dwight Howard may be as well. If not, the team could try to recruit a player who wants to boost their stock. Nerlens Noel (OKC) could benefit from the spotlight like that; better yet, his agent happens to be some dude named Rich Paul.
Overall, the Lakers need to keep pushing and trying to improve, be it through free agency, through trades, or through the draft (where they have the # 28 pick.) This team may have been good enough to win the title, but as mentioned, one title isn't going to satisfy this star, this team, and this fan base. Hollywood's all about excess, and the goal will be to overindulge over the next few years.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
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Run Pure Bets - YouTube Australian Sports Betting Facts Sports Gambling Daily - YouTube WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips - YouTube Live Video Sports Betting  Sports with Facts  MLB 7/27/19

Below, you’ll find five fun facts about sports betting with real money that offer several insights into why this gambling vertical has blossomed into a thriving multibillion-dollar industry during the last decade alone.. 1 – Legal Sportsbooks Are Coming to a State Near You. For gamblers of a certain vintage, the only place in America where one could legally place a sports bet has always ... Anyone with little bit knowledge about sports betting knows, that the odds are simply probabilities turned into the odds and if there is one event, that has 100% of chance, bookmakers would never ever offer such a bet. So, talking about 3–0 night or guaranteed things in sports betting is little bit crazy. But this is a topic for another time…. Sports Gambling Facts and Statistics ... About 67% of all college students bet on sports. Sports betting is second to poker in popularity of gambling games among college students. A recent survey revealed that 44% of 12th grade males reported wagering on sports at least Sports betting is a lot of fun, and it’s one of the main reasons why it’s so popular. It’s a form of entertainment like any other, and losing money on wagers is simply the cost of that entertainment. The chance of actually winning some money, however unlikely, just makes it even more appealing. Sports betting isn’t the same as most gambling activities. You can learn how to win, but it’s not as straightforward as the strategy you’re likely to use in other games like blackjack or poker. Here are five mathematical facts about sports gambling that you need to understand if you want to win more often. 1 – The Vig Is a Killer

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