Learn - Football betting tips - Havebets

I have just written up some of the things I have learned about football betting, would love your thoughts!

I am new to football betting and wanted to share some of the things I have learned so that they might help other people in a similar position.
I would love to know if there is anything I should add or change about it?
I posted them here: https://www.thefootytipster.com/beginners-guide-to-football-betting/ but to save you the click I will copy/paste it below;
Some Football Betting Terms
Don’t bet with your heart, bet with your head This means don’t bet because you want a team to win, bet because you think they will win!
Likewise don’t bet against teams you don’t like just because you don’t like them, bet against them because you think they are going to lose.
Try not to get greedy There are two things I have caught myself doing related to being greedy, the first is adding extra teams into an accumulator just because it will bump up my maximum payout. This is almost always a terrible idea!
The second thing I have done is bet more money on a team than I initially was going to. You should have a plan for how much you are going to bet and stick to it.
Have patience You are not going to win every bet, if you want to become successful at betting on football you need to be patient and pick the right bets for you.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose Before I place a bet I always think about the money I am going to be placing on it and think, if I were to lose this money right now would I be OK with that. If the answer is no I won’t place the bet.
Seek help if football betting is becoming a problem If you think gambling might be becoming a problem for you then my advice is to seek help. GambleAware.co.uk might be worth a visit!
Don’t bet on friendlies They are too unpredictable, you don’t know how much effort the respective teams are putting in and reserve players may get an outing that you weren’t counting on.
If the friendlies are before the start of a new season (they often are) players will be very aware to not pick up any injuries so might not play as hard as they normally do.
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[Game Preview] Week 4 - Philadelphia Eagles(0-2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
The Eagles are off to their worst start since 1999 when Eagles coach Doug Pederson was the starting QB for the Eagles in Andy Reid’s first season; where the Eagles started 0-3 and finished 5-11. The Eagles look to be on a similar trajectory this season with their 0-2-1 start following an embarrassing tie to the Bengals last week. The Eagles have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL this season and the Eagles look like a bad football team. There really isn’t any other description of this team. They are bad on every level and it starts from the top. The team has played undisciplined and the offensive and defensive play-calling has been atrocious and has lacked identity. It seems like the game-planning this season has been phoned in with the coaches running the same vanilla offense and defense week in and week out and expecting the players to win it for them which they haven’t. Carson Wentz has regressed to the point he is unrecognizable and is making mistakes from his rookie season. His coaches don’t seem interested in helping him with fix those mistakes either as Doug Pederson and Press Taylor have failed to recognize Carson’s breakdowns in his mechanics. Their gameplans have done him no favors either utilizing a large number of 5 and 7 step drops despite having a multitude of injuries on the offensive line and at the wide receiver position. If the Eagles have any hope of salvaging their season they will need to pull out a win on Sunday night football against the 49ers and their strong defense. The 49ers are dealing with some injuries of their own with Bosa and Sherman on the IR on the defensive side and Jimmy G and Mosert most likely missing the game on offense. The San Fran defense is still tough with an impressive defensive line and speed all over the field. If Doug cares about Carson at all he will move the pocket and rely on Miles Sanders on the ground to keep the pass rush honest. On the defensive side, Schwartz will need to continue to mix it up with blitzes like he did against the Bengals, but he will need to pull his out of his ass in the secondary and learn that his CBs should not be playing 8-10 yards off the ball when playing man coverage. If Schwartz does a lot of the same in the secondary it could be a long day because Shanahan’s offense will exploit it and lead to another Eagles loss, this time in Prime Time. The Eagles will need to figure out how to get a win this week, or this streak of 3 straight playoff appearances will come to an end. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday, October 4th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
8:20 PM - Eastern Levi’s Stadium
7:20 PM - Central 4900 Marie P DeBartolo Way
6:20 PM - Mountain Santa Clara, CA 95054
5:20 PM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 74°F
Feels Like: 74°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 1%
Wind: West-Northwest 6 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: 49ers -7
OveUnder: 46
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-3, San Francisco 2-1
Where to Watch on TV
NBC* will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Al Michaels will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Collinsworth will provide analysis and Michele Tafoya will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 4 TV Coverage Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
49ers Radio
49ers Radio Greg Papa will handle play-by-play and Tim Ryan will provide analysis for the game.
National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game nationally with Ryan Radtke handling the play by play and Terrell Davis will provide analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel 49ers Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 81 (Streaming 825) SIRI 83 (Streaming 827)
XM Radio XM 226 (Streaming 825) 225 (Streaming 827)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 226 (Streaming 825) SXM 225 (Streaming 827)
Eagles Social Media 49ers Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: sf49ers
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Football Team 1-2 .333 1-0 0-2 1-0 1-1 62 81 -19 2L
Cowboys 1-2 .333 1-0 0-2 0-0 1-2 88 97 -9 1L
Eagles 0-2-1 .167 0-1-1 0-1 0-1 0-2 59 87 -28 0
Giants 0-3 .000 0-2 0-1 0-0 0-2 38 79 -41 3L
Series Information
Rhe San Francisco 49ers lead the Philadelphia Eagles(San Francisco 49ers lead series, 19-13-1)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
October 6th, 1951 at Shibe Park, Philadelphia, PA . Philadelphia Eagles 21 - San Francisco 49ers 14.
Points Leader
Philadelphia Eagles lead San Francisco 49ers (749-733)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 1-0 against the 49ers
Kyle Shanahan: 0-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Kyle Shanahan: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against 49ers: 1-0
Jimmy Garapolo: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz v Jimmy Garapolo: First meeting between QBs.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead 49ers: 3-2
Record @ Levi’s Stadium: 49ers lead Eagles 1-0
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 26 - 49ers No. 12
Record
Eagles: 0-2-1
49ers: 2-1
Last Meeting
Sunday, October 29th, 2017
Eagles 34 - 49ers 10
The Eagles looked to win their 6th game in a row against the winless San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles got off to a slow start, only leading 3–0 after the first quarter. Late in the second quarter, the Eagles blew the game open. Carson Wentz found tight end Zach Ertz for a 1-yard touchdown in the back of the end zone off of a bootleg pass, and Jalen Mills intercepted rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard and returned it 37 yards for a touchdown. The 49ers appeared to have some life in the third quarter, following a Carson Wentz interception, leading to a Matt Breida 22 yard touchdown reception. However, the Eagles responded, with Wentz connecting with Alshon Jeffery for a 53-yard touchdown, putting the game out of reach. The Eagles went on to win 33–10 and advanced to 7–1 on the season. Despite the win, the Eagles played a sloppy game on a rainy afternoon in Philadelphia.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
10/29/2017 Eagles 49ers 33-10
9/28/2014 49ers Eagles 26-21
10/2/2011 49ers Eagles 24-23
10/10/2010 Eagles 49ers 27-24
12/20/2009 Eagles 49ers 27-13
10/12/2008 Eagles 49ers 40-26
9/24/2006 Eagles 49ers 38--24
9/18/2005 Eagles 49ers 42-3
12/21/2003 49ers Eagles 31-28
11/25/2002 Eagles 49ers 38-17 
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
49ers 49ers
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 4 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
49ers Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 79 132 59.85% 737 3 6 63.9
Garoppolo 33 49 67.35% 390 4 0 118.6
Mullens 33 47 70.21% 414 4 1 95.5
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 38 190 95 5.0 1
Mosert 23 148 74.0 6.4 1
Mckinnon 20 139 46.3 7.0 2
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ertz 15 130 43.3 8.7 1
Reed 11 85 28.3 7.7 2
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 3.0 12
Hyder 2.0 5
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Gerry 25 12 13 0.0
Warner 28 17 11 0.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
N/A 0 0
Tartt/Warner 1 2
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 13 673 62 51.8 45.5 7 1 0
Wishnowsky 8 377 59 47.1 43.6 5 1 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 7 6 85.7% 54 5/5
Gould 7 6 85.7% 52 9/9
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 3 61 20.3 25 0
McKinnon 4 87 21.8 29 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Ward 3 10 3.3 8 0 3
Taylor 2 21 10.5 12 0 1
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank 49ers Stat 49ers Rank
Total Offense 336.3 24th 381.7 14th
Rush Offense 117.7 17th 132.7 12th
Pass Offense 218.7 24th 249.0 15th
Points Per Game 19.7 27th 29.0 T-11th
3rd-Down Offense 46.8% 9th 47.2 8th
4th-Down Offense 0.0% T-28th 0.0 T-28th
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 57.1% T-20th 61.5% T-16th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank 49ers Stat 49ers Rank
Total Defense 330.7 5th 304.0 3rd
Rush Defense 106.3 9th 116.7 16th
Pass Defense 224.3 7th 187.3 2nd
Points Per Game 29.0 23rd 15.3 2nd
3rd-Down Defense 34.9% 5th 42.1% 14th
4th-Down Defense 66.7% 21st 25.0% T-6th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 69.2% 21st 50.0% T-6th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank 49ers Stat 49ers Rank
Turnover Diff. -7 32nd +3 T-5th
Total Penalties 19 19th 16 T-11th
Total Penalty Yards 143 16th 157 18th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - The Eagles welcomed the Cincinnati Bengals to Lincoln Financial Field seeking their first win over Cincinnati since 2000. After a scoreless first quarter, the two teams traded field goals in the second, before the Bengals took a 10-6 lead on a touchdown reception by Tee Higgins. Wentz responded on the ensuing drive, as he threw his 100th career touchdown pass to Greg Ward to put the Eagles in front 13-10 at halftime. After the Eagles added another Jake Elliott field goal, the Bengals reclaimed a one-point lead with Higgins' second touchdown of the afternoon. Cincinnati would pad its lead to seven points with two fourth-quarter field goals. Trailing 23-16 with just over 3 minutes left in regulation, Philadelphia drove down the field to score the game-tying touchdown on a 7-yard run for Wentz. In overtime, both defenses held strong, with neither team being able to get into field goal range until the final drive, when the Eagles got to the Bengals' 41. However, a costly false start on Matt Pryor brought Philadelphia out of field goal range. The Eagles punted the ball, and the game ended on the following play with the Bengals at their own 20. Despite his milestone, Wentz's struggles continued as he also threw two interceptions for the third straight game and finished the game with a 62.8 passer rating. Philadelphia improved to 0-2-1 with the tie, but failed to snap their winless streak against Cincinnati and fell to 0-3-2 in their last five against the Bengals, including an 0-2-1 mark at Lincoln Financial Field. This marked the Eagles' first tie since 2008, which was also against the Bengals.
49ers - The way the San Francisco 49ers played, missing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and a slew of starters wasn't an issue against the woeful and winless New York Giants, who were also missing their best player in Saquan Barkley. 49ers backup Nick Mullens threw for 343 yards and a touchdown and the Niners controlled the ball on offense, took it away on defense and had another easy day on the East Coast in a 36-9 win at MetLife Stadium Sunday. San Francisco scored on seven of its first eight possessions. It would have been all eight but a snap-hold problem led to Gould missing a 55-yarder. He connected from 52, 32 and 26 yards. The Niners' ninth possession ended the game.
Connections
49ers Practice Squad LB Joe Walker played 3 seasons for the Eagles from 2016-2018.
49ers Offensive Quality Control Coach Miles Austin played one season for the Eagles in 2015.
49ers Inside LB coach Demeco Ryans played 4 seasons for the Eagles from 2012-2015.
49ers Assistant Special Teams coach Michael Clay was a Defensive Special Assistant (2014) and Assistant Special Teams coach(2015) from 2014-2015.
49ers RB Raheem Mosert was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2015 and was placed on their practice squad before he was signed off the practice squad by the Miami Dolphins.
Eagles Special Teams coach Dave Fipp worked as the Assistant special teams coach for the 49ers from 2008-2010.
Eagles Senior Offensive Assistant Rich Scangarello worked as the QB coach for the 49ers from 2017-2018.
Eagles Senior Offensive Assistant Marty Mornhinweg worked for the 49ers as Offensive coordinator & quarterbacks coach from 1997-2000.
Eagles WR Marquise Goodwin played 3 seasons for the 49ers from 2017-2019.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles 49ers
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) FB Kyle Juszczyk (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) TE George Kittle (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter) DE Nick Bosa (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter) CB Richard Sherman(Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Dating back to 2005, Philadelphia has won 6 of its last 8 games vs. San Francisco. In the last meeting between the two teams, the Eagles defeated the 49ers, 33-10, at Lincoln Financial Field.
Additionally, Philadelphia has captured 4 of its previous 5 road games against San Francisco since 2002.
The Eagles defense, which collected a season-high 8.0 sacks in Week 3 vs. Cincinnati, is tied for the 3rd-most sacks (12.0) in the NFL, behind Pittsburgh (15.0) and Washington (13.0).
Brandon Graham is tied for the 5th-most sacks (team-high 3.0) in the NFL this season. He needs only 1.0 sack to surpass Hugh Douglas (54.5, 1998-2002, ‘04) for the 4th-most sacks in team history, trailing only Reggie White (124.0, 1985-92), Trent Cole (85.5, 2005-14) and Clyde Simmons (76.0, 1986-93).
Miles Sanders has produced the 7th-most rushing yards (190) in the NFL since Week 2 (95 rushing yards each against the Rams and Bengals). Sanders has also totaled 100+ scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 regular-season games.
Draft Picks
Eagles 49ers
WR Jalen Raegor DT Javon Kinlaw
QB Jalen Hurts WR Brandon Aiyuk
LB Davion Taylor OT Colton McKivitz
S K’Von Wallace TE Charlie Woerner
OT Jack Driscoll WR Jauan Jennings
WR John Hightower
LB Shaun Bradley
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles 49ers
S Will Parks OT Trent Williams
DT Javon Hargrave WR Mohamed Sanu
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman DT Kerry Hyder
CB Darius Slay C Hroniss Grasu
WR Tavon Austin
TE Jordan Reed
DE Dion Jordan
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles 49ers
S Malcom Jenkins OT Joe Staley
CB Ronald Darby DT Deforest Buckner
RB Jordan Howard WR Emmanuel Sanders
WR Nelson Agholor WR Marquise Goodwin
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai DT Sheldon Day
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill RG Mike Person
RB Darren Sproles TE Garret Celek
DT Timmy Jernigan
LB Nigel Bradham
Milestones
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6397) needs 68 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (54) needs 1 sack to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (49) needs 1.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27.5) needs 2 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
49ers DE Arik Armstead(20) needs 2 sacks to move up to 20th on the 49ers all-time sack list passing OLB Parys Haralson.
Stats to Know
Receiving RBs
What if I told you the Niners have two of the league’s best receiving Running Backs? (Yes, one is hurt). What if I also told you the Eagles’ defenders are presently poop covering RBs against the pass? That about sums it up. Mr. McKinnon should have a fun day.
Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz
This is the only real battle that matters since it's extremely difficult to win in the NFL with poor QB play. Wentz is among the worst QBs in the league to start the season and it could be a significant amount of time before he changes course. Even the most stalwart Wentz supporters must admit he is also a problem with this team right now. With that said, in order to win this game, and any game moving forward, the Eagles need Carson Wentz to improve. Philly can't use the injury excuse in this particular matchup as the Niners are one of the only teams to be in a similar or worse injury predicament than the Eagles. Even with the injuries, the Niners are able to show up and show out on a weekly basis... They are a great team. Wentz has had issues in all areas pertaining to play. He needs to be more precise, smarter, and more relaxed. This team sucks; it's likely no amount of heroism if going to pull this team from the depths of the league this season. The only thing Carson Wentz can do is his job. He's not responsible for coaching blunders, other injuries, or a GM that can't get anything right. Just get better and when he does, this team can actually be competitive.
Kyle Shanahan and his offensive genius vs Jim Schwartz and the LBs and Safeties
It should be no surprise the Eagles LBs and Safeties struggle in coverage as they did nothing in the offseason to add players that can cover. Plain and simple. This is a defense with a great defensive line, a great CB1, and that's it. They struggle to play consistent run defense now with the mediocre talent in the second and third levels. Kyle Shanahan is one of the most innovative offensive minds in the NFL; if you thought the thumping Sean McVay gave us was painful, wait until we see what's in store from the guy who mentored McVay. Shanahan lives for finding your weakest links in the LB and Safety rooms and exploiting that deficiency mercilessly. Nate Gerry is about to have his worst game ever - and that says something. George Kittle should return for this contest which is a tremendous mismatch that the Niners will exploit. Even the best cover guys in the league struggle against Kittle as he's just a monster. Shanahan will use all kinds of motion, misdirection, and play action that will cause this defense to struggle mightily absent some sort of miracle where they learn to play. I have faith that the defensive line can play well, but as we saw in week 2, all the motion, misdirection, and play action teams use can neutralize a pass rush. Lastly, can Schwartz even put his guys in better positions? Yeah, probably not.
Doug Pederson’s Offensive Game Plan vs the Niners Defense
I tried to have a more nuanced look at this matchup but it is difficult. The Eagles offense is marred by underachieving talent and injuries to start the season. Furthermore, they weren't given enough to work with by the front office but that is an entirely different discussion. Point blank: the offensive coaching staff, led by Doug Pederson, has struggled to consistently put its players in successful situations to start the season. It's not all Doug's fault but a large part of it is. There wasn't a real identity to this offense to start and that's only gotten worse 4 weeks in. This roster isn't going to suddenly improve overnight, if at all this season, so it's up to the coaching staff to help the offense succeed. There are a lot of new cooks involved in creating the offensive game plan but not enough overall direction from the man in charge. The Niners defense has plenty of injuries to key players as well; can they design a function offense built on spare parts to put up a fight? Or will they punt?
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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[Game Preview] Week 3 - Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles(0-2)

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)
The Eagles are off to their worst start with a real coach since 2003 (I consider 2013-2015 non-existent) when they also dropped their first two games of the season. The team would like a repeat of that season where following a week 3 bye,the team rebounded to defeat the Bills 23-13. The Eagles ripped off 12 wins in their remaining 14 games following their 0-2 start. Maybe the Eagles will be able to do the same, but they will have to shake the injury bug first. The Eagles will be without first round pick Jalen Raegor this week who underwent surgery on his hand to repair a torn UC ligament in his thumb. The Eagles may also be without Fletcher Cox who is dealing with an oblique injury. The Cox injury should be watched closely if he can’t go, Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow will have a much easier day against the struggling defense. Last week against the Rams, the defense was under prepared and unable to stop anyone. The Rams took advantage of Jim Schwartz’s consistently odd decision to have his CBs, play so far off the line of scrimmage, giving a free release to the WRs and allowing easy short passes. If Schwartz does the same this week, it will be another long day for the Eagles defense and a great fantasy day for Tyler Boyd, who Bengals Joe Burrow connected with 7 times last week including 1 for a TD. On the other side of the ball Doug and Carson will both need to be better than the last two weeks. For Carson, he needs to get out of his own head and play with confidence. For Doug, he needs to find some creativity and help his 5th year QB. He would do well to get Carson moving and utilize the RBs more in the flat and screen game. However, if we see more of the same we saw in weeks 1 and 2 from the Eagles coaching staff, we should expect another loss. Hopefully that is not the case and Carson and the coaches can learn from their mistakes in weeks 1-2 and pull our a win this week. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to [join us on Discord]https://discord.gg/HwwBbM3) during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Score Prediction Contest
Date
Sunday, September 27th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern Lincoln Financial Field
12:00 PM - Central 1020 Pattison Ave
11:00 AM - Mountain Philadelphia, PA 19148
10L00 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 78°F
Feels Like: 78°F
Forecast: Clear. Partly cloudy throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 1%
Cloud Coverage: 31%
Wind: South Southwest 8 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Eagles -5
OveUnder: 46.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 0-2, Cincinnati 1-0-1
Where to Watch on TV
CBS will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Spero Dedes will handle the play-by-play duties and Adam Archuleta will provide analysis.
TV Map - Week 3 TV Coverage Map
Radio Streams
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Bengals Radio
Bengals Radio Dan Hoard will handle play-by-play and Dave Lapham will provide analysis for the game.
National Radio
Compass Media will broadcast the game nationally with Chris Carrino handling the play by play and Brian Baldinger will provide analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Bengals Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 81 (Streaming 825) SIRI 105 (Streaming 806)
XM Radio XM 226 (Streaming 825) Streaming 806
Sirius XM Radio SXM 226 (Streaming 825) SXM 385 (Streaming 806)
Eagles Social Media Bengals Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: officialbengals
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Football Team 1-1 .500 1-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 42 47 -5 1L
Cowboys 1-1 .500 1-0 0-1 0-0 1-1 57 59 -2 1W
Eagles 0-2 .000 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-2 36 64 -28 2L
Giants 0-2 .000 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-1 39 43 -14 2L
Series Information
The Cincinnati Bengals lead the Philadelphia Eagles(Cincinnati Bengals lead series, 9-3-1)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
September 19th, 1971 at Riverfront Stadium, Cincinnati, OH . CIncinnati Bengals 37 Philadelphia Eagles 14
Points Leader
Cincinnati Bengals lead Philadelphia Eagles (360-222)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-1 against the Bengals
Zac Taylor: 0-0 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Zac Taylor: First meeting between coaches
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Rams: 0-1
Joe Burrow: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Joe Burrow: First meeting between QBs.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Bengals lead Eagles: 2-0
Record @ Paul Brown Stadium: Bengals lead Eagles 1-0-1
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 23 - Bengals No. 28
Record
Eagles: 0-2
Bengals: 0-2
Last Meeting
Sunday, December 4th, 2016
Eagles 32 - Rams 14
Andy Dalton threw a pair of touchdown passes and Cincinnati finally got its depleted offense moving without receiver A.J. Green, and the Bengals sent the Philadelphia Eagles to their most lopsided loss of the season, 32-14 on Sunday.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
Sunday December 13th, 2012
Bengals 34 - Eagles 13
Andy Dalton threw a touchdown pass and ran for another score, an opportunistic defense forced five turnovers, and Cincinnati beat the Philadelphia Eagles 34-13 on Thursday night. The Eagles offense imploded turning the ball over 4 times with another turnover on a kick off. At one point the Eagles turned the ball over on 3 straight possessions. The Eagles lost double digit games for the first time since 2005, in one of the last games the Eagles were coached by Andy Reid.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
12/4/2016 Bengals Eagles 32-14
12/13/2012 Bengals Eagles 34-13
11/16/2008 Bengals & Eagles 13-13
1/2/2005 Bengals Eagles 38-10
12/24/2000 Eagles Bengals 16-7
11/30/1997 Eagles Bengals 44-42
12/24/1994 Bengals Eagles 33-30
11/17/1991 Eagles Bengals 17-10
9/11/1988 Bengals Eagles 28-24
11/21/1982 Bengals Eagles 18-14
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Bengals Bengals
2020 “Expert” Picks
Week 3 - "Expert" Picks
2020 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Bengals Season Stats
2020 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 50 85 58.8% 512 2 4 64.4
Burrow 60 97 61.9% 509 3 1 81.5
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 20 95 95 4.8 1
Mixon 35 115 57.5 3.3 0
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Goedert 12 131 65.5 10.9 1
Boyd 11 105 52.5 9.5 1
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Sweat/Graham 1.0 4
Lawson/Bynes 1.0 2
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Gerry 17 8 9 0.0
Bell/Bynes 16 6/7 10/9 0/1.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
N/A 0 0
Jackson III 1 1
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 7 389 62 55.6 49.1 4 1 0
Huber 8 428 70 53.5 43.5 3 3 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 4 3 75.0% 38 3/3
Bullock 6 5 83.3% 50 4/4
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Scott 3 61 20.3 25 0
Wilson 3 131 43.7 45 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Raegor 2 6 3.0 6 0 2
Erickson 2 29 14.5 29 0 1
League Rankings 2020
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bengals Stat Bengals Rank
Total Offense 314.0 28th 324.0 26h
Rush Offense 89.0 29th 95.0 26th
Pass Offense 225.0 23rd 229.0 22nd
Points Per Game 18.0 T-27th 21.5 23rd
3rd-Down Offense 46.2% T-11th 43.8 15th
4th-Down Offense 0.0% T-25th 100.0 T-1st
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 60.0% T-14th 40.0% 30th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bengals Stat Bengals Rank
Total Defense 344.0 9th 398.0 22nd
Rush Defense 135.5 22nd 185.0 30th
Pass Defense 208.5 5th 213.0 7th
Points Per Game 32.0 26th 25.5 T-16th
3rd-Down Defense 40.0% 10th 45.8% 20th
4th-Down Defense 66.7% T-19th 25.0% T-9th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 77.8% 27th 62.5% 16th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Bengals Stat Bengals Rank
Turnover Diff. -5 32nd -2 T-25th
Total Penalties 8 5th 11 T-12th
Total Penalty Yards 50 2nd 89 13th
Recap from Last Week’s Games.
Eagles - The Eagles' struggles continued in their home opener against the Los Angeles Rams. An early fumble by Miles Sanders led to a Rams touchdown by Tyler Higbee. After the Eagles cut their deficit to four with a Jake Elliott field goal, Los Angeles responded with a Robert Woods touchdown run followed by a second Higbee touchdown catch. Trailing 21-3, the Eagles closed the deficit to five points by halftime with touchdown runs by Wentz and Sanders. After forcing a three-and-out on the Rams' first possession of the second half, the Eagles would drive to the Los Angeles 21, only for Wentz's first down pass to be picked off by Darious Williams, turning the momentum back in the Rams' favor as they would outscore the Eagles 16-3 the rest of the way. Despite not being sacked once during the game, Wentz finished the day with a 56.5 passer rating, completing 26 of 43 passes for 242 yards and two interceptions. The 37-19 blowout loss dropped Philadelphia to 0-2 for the first time since the 2015 season, and marked the Eagles' first home opener loss since that same season. It was also the first home loss to the Rams franchise since the opener of the 2001 season.
Bengals - After losing their regular season-opening game at home, the Bengals then traveled to Cleveland to face the Browns for Battle of Ohio Round 1. In the first quarter, the Bengals scored first when Randy Bullock kicked a 38-yard field goal to make it 3-0. Though, the Browns took the lead when Nick Chubb ran for an 11-yard TD to make it 7-3. In the second quarter, the Browns went up by double digits when Baker Mayfield found O'dell Beckham Jr. on a 43-yard TD pass to make it 14-3. The Bengals then came within 4 after Joe Burrow found C.J. Uzomah on a 23-yard TD pass to make it 14-10. Mayfield then found Kareem Hunt on a 6-yard TD pass to put the Browns up by double digits, 21-10. The Bengals closed out the half when Randy Bullock kicked a 43-yard field goal to make it 21-13 at halftime. In the third quarter, the Browns went back up by double digits when Chubb ran for a 1-yard TD to make it 28-13. The Bengals drew closer with Bullock's 27-yard field goal to make it 28-16. In the fourth quarter, the Bengals were able to get within 5 when Burrow found Mike Thomas on a 4-yard TD pass to make the score 28-23. Though, the Browns would go back up by double digits yet again when Hunt punched the ball in for a 1-yard TD to make it 35-23. The Bengals wrapped up the scoring when Burrow found Tyler Boyd on a 9-yard TD pass to make the final score 35-30.
Connections
Bengals HC Zac Taylor is the older brother of Eagles QB Press Taylor.
Bengals TE Coach James Casey played two seasons for the Eagles from 2013-2014.
Bengals assistant Special Teams coach Colt Anderson played 4 seasons for the Eagles from 2010-2013.
Eagles Run game coordinatodefensive line coach Matt Burke was the LB coach for the Bengals from 2014-2015.
Eagles DB coach Marquand Manuel played for the Bengals from 2002-2003.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Bengals
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) DT Geno Atkins
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Adrian Hill
Philadelphia hosts Cincinnati at Lincoln Financial Field for just the third time in the all-time series and first time since 2012. Sunday marks the 14th overall meeting between the two teams.
The Eagles are 23-10 (.697) at home in the regular season under head coach Doug Pederson, which is tied for the 6th-best home winning percentage in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New En-gland (.818, 27-6), Baltimore (.758, 25-8), Kansas City (.758, 25-8), New Orleans (.727, 24-9) and Green Bay (.712, 23-9-1).
In Week 2 vs. L.A. Rams, Miles Sanders combined for 131 scrim-mage yards (3rd-most in a single game in his career), including 95 rushing (1 TD) and 36 receiving. In 2019, Sanders led his class with a franchise-rookie-record 1,327 scrimmage yards.
Brandon Graham recorded sack No. 52 of his NFL career against Rams QB Jared Goff in Week 2 vs. L.A. Rams. His 52.0 sacks are the 5th-most in Eagles history, behind Reggie White (124.0, 1985-92), Trent Cole (85.5, 2005-14), Clyde Simmons (76.0, 1986-93) and Hugh Douglas (54.5, 1998-2002, ‘04).
Draft Picks
Eagles Bengals
WR Jalen Raegor QB Joe Burrow
QB Jalen Hurts WR Tee Higgins
LB Davion Taylor LB Logan Wilson
S K’Von Wallace LB Akeem Davis-Gaither
OT Jack Driscoll DE Khalid Kareem
WR John Hightower T Hakeem Adeniji
LB Shaun Bradley LB Marcus Bailey
WR Quez Watkins
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
LB/DE Casey Toohill
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Bengals
S Will Parks NT DJ Reader
DT Javon Hargrave CB Trae Waynes
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman CB Mackensie Alexander
CB Darius Slay G Xavier Su’a-Filo
LB Josh Bynes
WR Mike Thomas
S Vonn Bell
CB Leshaun Sims
RB Jacques Patrick
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Bengals
S Malcom Jenkins QB Andy Dalton
CB Ronald Darby CB Dre Kirkpatrick
RB Jordan Howard G John Miller
WR Nelson Agholor OT Cordy Glenn
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai TE Tyler Eifert
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill WR Marqise Lee
RB Darren Sproles CB Darqueze Dennard
DT Timmy Jernigan DT Andrew Billings
LB Nigel Bradham S Clayton Fejedelem
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (99) needs 1 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6386 needs 79 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list all-time passing WR *Mike Quick
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying WR Jeremy Maclin
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (52) needs 2.5 sacks to move to 4th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (48) needs 2.5 sacks to move up to 6th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Greg Brown
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (27) needs 1 sack to move up to 19th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DT Darwin Walker
Bengals WR AJ Green (8987) needs 13 yards to reach 9000 receiving yards for his career.
Bengals WR AJ Green (63) needs 3 receiving TDs to move into a tie with Chad Johnson for the most receiving TDs in Bengals history.
Stats to Know
QB Adjusted Completion %
What’s one thing rookie Joe Burrow and 5th-year Carson Wentz have in common? They have not been terribly accurate so far. PFF has an Adjusted Completion % stat that accounts for clear drops, spikes, throw aways, batted passes, and throws made while getting hit. Burrow and Wentz are near the bottom in AC%, with 70.4 and 70.3, respectively. Interesting to note a bit of the distribution within the array of aforementioned stats: while Burrow has had one of the lower rates of on-target passes dropped by the receiver (4.1%), Wentz doubled that at 8.4%, good for 5th-highest. Yes, Wentz has stunk, but...
Matchups to Watch
Rookie versus Veteran, Which QB Has Poise Down 0-2?
With two consecutive weeks of porous defense from both the Eagles and Bengals defensive units, this Sunday's matchup should rest squarely on the shoulders of each offensive unit. Will the Eagles be able to rely on fifth year starter Wentz? Will he be able to shake off two tumultuous weeks and put together a consistent offensive performance? Will the Bengals weapons coalesce around their rookie Burrow? Will he be able to put together his first complete NFL game and demonstrate that this season is the turning point for the franchise? A big piece of Wentz stabilizing his game time performance will be continuing his focus on short-time-to-throw plays. From Week 1 with 8 sacks versus the Washington Football Team to Week 2 and zero sacks versus the Rams with the vaunted Aaron Donald, the Eagles Offensive Line and Wentz’ pocket choices resulted in less lost yards and broken plays. Unfortunately, key turnovers again forced short-yardage scoring situations and massive tempo swings. Wentz needs to take advantage of the cleaner pocket that will likely be available versus the Bengals (2 sacks on the year so far) and finish drives cleanly to put the game away. Without rookie WR Jalen Reagor (placed on IR with a thumb injury after Week 2), Wentz will have to make use of the remainder of his threats, including veteran DeSean Jackson who had 6 catches on 9 targets for 64 yards against the superior Rams’ defensive backfield. Joe Burrow has had the classic introductory NFL QB experience. A high-flying game versus the Browns last week, with 300+ yards passing, 3TDs and zero ints was fantastic bounce back from Week 1 versus the Chargers. 193 yards, 0 TDs, and an int will not win the game for the Bengals versus the Eagles, even if Wentz struggles. A key focus for Burrow will be settling into the routine and relationships he’s formed with his offensive weapons. AJ Green remains one of the best WR threats in the NFL and his slow start to the season (8 catches for 80 yards) could end at any time, in any game with a QB like Burrow. Burrow threw a nearly record setting number of passes during the almost-come-from-behind loss versus the Browns; if the Bengals are able to establish their run-game and abuse the Philadelphia secondary in a similar way to the Rams offensive scheme, then Burrow could have a very big day. If he is forced to drop back 60+ times, and Joe Mixon is again held under 75 yards on the ground, the Bengals and Burrow may have a hard time. Keep an eye on how comfortable each QB is feeling, and whether they can establish good tempo. That will be key to offensive production this weekend.
Coaching Conundrum; Pederson versus Taylor
At the core of the NFL these days is the combat between offensive and defensive schemes. Both coaches come from a background of coaching QB play and offensive schemes, though from different eras and coaching trees. How they go about using that experience to enable their teams to a secure a necessary win this week will make or break their seasons. Doug Pederson, at the helm of a revamped offensive coaching tree with the addition of Quarterbacks Coach Press Taylor as Passing Game Coordinator, has had a rough three year stretch of offensive stumbles. Since the miraculous Super Bowl 52 season (2017), the Eagles have consistently failed to be productive, with a lot of the challenges relating to lack of roster depth and poor player improvement through misaligned coaching. This is the third consecutive year of stuttering offense to begin the season and a big piece of the matchup versus the Bengals will be how well the Eagles can settle in. Coach Pederson has made it clear that the lack of full-speed off-season practice plays a big role in the Eagle’s struggles so far; so it remains to be seen when and if both units can make use of this gametime practice to solidify the small flashes of prior success we’ve seen. Opposite Pederson is Coach Taylor, in his second year of a complete rebuild, now with the (ideally career-long) franchise WB in Burrow. Hailing from the Shanahan line, through the LA Rams McVay, Taylor was brought into Cincinnati to recreate the organization’s coaching structure and form a new core for the team around veteran WR AJ Green. The 2019 season showed marked improvement throughout, particularly in run production and passer protection; the addition of Covid-related practice limitations have also taken their toll on the Bengals’ preparations for this season, as exemplified by the Week 1 drubbing by the Ravens. Taylor returns this season with second-year offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, formerly the QB coach for the Raiders. The cerebral talent in the Bengals organization is clearly arrayed around giving Burrow the best possible chance to shine; and they may just do so against an extremely poorly performing Eagles defense. Being able to establish consistent offensive strength and consistency throughout this season will be a key part of whether this new coaching structure is able to flourish in Cincinnati or if yet more change is needed to remake the franchise. During game day, keep an eye out on how these coaches make use of their star players, now that the very early season yips and stumbles should be behind them. Whoever can appropriately adjust to the flow of the game and take advantage of the others mistakes will win this football game.
The Big Punt: How Special Teams Makes An Impact
Kevin versus Cameron, Huber versus Johnston, two players that may very well decide the nature of this Bengals versus Eagles matchup. These titans of the turf, two punters to rule them all, and two punters to pin them deep; two punters waiting on call, and two punters to make fans weep. In lieu of offensive production, and in hopes of good defensive play, Kevin Huber and Cameron Johnston bring their punting prowess to Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday. Hailing from opposite sides of the Earth, Huber from Cincinnati itself, and Johnston from Geelong Australia, these two are some of the most capable foot-based deliverers of the football to opposing teams. Huber holds nearly all of the Bengals franchise records in punting statistics; and Johnston holds the highest gross and net punting averages in a single Eagles season. The third year Australian punter is known by Eagles fans for his insanely long hang-time and penchant for pinning the NY Giants inside the 20 (20+ times in four games). Huber is loved by the Bengals fanbase as both their longest tenured player and his consistency over the past 13 years. He has missed just 2 of 180 possible games, and has been perennially top 10 at his position. Both players are in the final year of their contracts, so effective performance is a must for maximum salary gains. Keep an eye out on how effective these two are in establishing and keeping good field position. If both teams are struggling for consistency, these swings may be the key to a late drive that puts the game away. Additionally, with every punt comes the magic of a muffed punt return. If you’re a particular connoisseur of special teams play, watch and see if these punters add any special spin or location to their strikes; and key turnover last week in this position kept the Eagles hopeful. Maybe lightning will strike twice for the Eagles Special Teams and the Wizard with the Large Leg, Cam Johnston; maybe the Bengals gunners will scoop up a muff and Huber will be huger than expected. Stay tuned!
Special thanks to belisaurius and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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This week 12 yrs ago--Lehman Bros collapsed......(Best Interest) Explaining the Big Short and the 2008 Crisis

edit: thanks for the awards. I'd be a dick to take credit. Go check out the one-man-band who actually wrote it---I've been reading for a couple months, good stuff https://bestinterest.blog/explain-the-big-short/
(Best Interest) This post will explain the Big Short and the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse in simple terms.
This post is a little longer than usual–maybe give yourself 20 minutes to sift through it. But I promise you’ll leave feeling like you can tranche (that’s a verb, right?!) the whole financial system!
Key Players
First, I want to introduce the players in the financial crisis, as they might not make sense at first blush. One of the worst parts about the financial industry is how they use deliberately obtuse language to explain relatively simple ideas. Their financial acronyms are hard to keep track of. In order to explain the Big Short, these players–and their roles–are key.
Individuals, a.k.a. regular people who take out mortgages to buy houses; for example, you and me!
Mortgage lenders, like a local bank or a mortgage lending specialty shop, who give out mortgages to individuals. Either way, they’re probably local people that the individual home-buyer would meet in person.
Big banks, such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who buy lots of mortgages from lenders. After this transaction, the homeowner would owe money to the big bank instead of the lender.
Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)—deep breath!—who take mortgages from big banks and bundle them all together into a bond (see below). And just like before, this step means that the home-buyer now owes money to the CDO. Why is this done?! I’ll explain, I promise.
Ratings agencies, whose job is to determine the risk of a CDO—is it filled with safe mortgages, or risky mortgages?
Investors, who buy part of a CDO and get repaid as the individual homeowners start paying back their mortgage.
Feel lost already? I’m going to be a good jungle guide and get you through this. Stick with me.
Quick definition: Bonds
A bond can be thought of as a loan. When you buy a bond, you are loaning your money. The issuer of the bond is borrowing your money. In exchange for borrowing your money, the issuer promises to pay you back, plus interest, in a certain amount of time. Sometimes, the borrower cannot pay the investor back, and the bond defaults, or fails. Defaults are not good for the investor.
The CDO—which is a bond—could hold thousands of mortgages in it. It’s a mortgage-backed bond, and therefore a type of mortgage-backed security. If you bought 1% of a CDO, you were loaning money equivalent to 1% of all the mortgage principal, with the hope of collecting 1% of the principal plus interest as the mortgages got repaid.
There’s one more key player, but I’ll wait to introduce it. First…
The Whys, Explained
Why does an individual take out a mortgage? Because they want a home. Can you blame them?! A healthy housing market involves people buying and selling houses.
How about the lender; why do they lend? It used to be so they would slowly make interest money as the mortgage got repaid. But nowadays, the lender takes a fee (from the homeowner) for creating (or originating) the mortgage, and then immediately sells to mortgage to…
A big bank. Why do they buy mortgages from lenders? Starting in the 1970s, Wall St. started buying up groups of loans, tying them all together into one bond—the CDO—and selling slices of that collection to investors. When people buy and sell those slices, the big banks get a cut of the action—a commission.
Why would an investor want a slice of a mortgage CDO? Because, like any other investment, the big banks promised that the investor would make their money back plus interest once the homeowners began repaying their mortgages.
You can almost trace the flow of money and risk from player to player.
At the end of the day, the investor needs to get repaid, and that money comes from homeowners.
CDOs are empty buckets
Homeowners and mortgage lenders are easy to understand. But a big question mark swirls around Wall Street’s CDOs.
I like to think of the CDO as a football field full of empty buckets—one bucket per mortgage. As an investor, you don’t purchase one single bucket, or one mortgage. Instead, you purchase a thin horizontal slice across all the buckets—say, a half-inch slice right around the 1-gallon mark.
As the mortgages are repaid, it starts raining. The repayments—or rain—from Mortgage A doesn’t go solely into Bucket A, but rather is distributed across all the buckets, and all the buckets slowly get re-filled.
As long as your horizontal slice of the bucket is eventually surpassed, you get your money back plus interest. You don’t need every mortgage to be repaid. You just need enough mortgages to get to your slice.
It makes sense, then, that the tippy top of the bucket—which gets filled up last—is the highest risk. If too many of the mortgages in the CDO fail and aren’t repaid, then the tippy top of the bucket will never get filled up, and those investors won’t get their money back.
These horizontal slices are called tranches, which might sound familiar if you’ve read the book or watched the movie.
So far, there’s nothing too wrong about this practice. It’s simply moving the risk from the mortgage lender to other investors. Sure, the middle-men (banks, lenders, CDOs) are all taking a cut out of all the buy and sell transactions. But that’s no different than buying lettuce at grocery store prices vs. buying straight from the farmer. Middle-men take a cut. It happens.
But now, our final player enters the stage…
Credit Default Swaps: The Lynchpin of the Big Short
Screw you, Wall Street nomenclature! A credit default swap sounds complicated, but it’s just insurance. Very simple, but they have a key role to explain the Big Short.
Investors thought, “Well, since I’m buying this risky tranche of a CDO, I might want to hedge my bets a bit and buy insurance in case it fails.” That’s what a credit default swap did. It’s insurance against something failing. But, there is a vital difference between a credit default swap and normal insurance.
I can’t buy an insurance policy on your house, on your car, or on your life. Only you can buy those policies. But, I could buy insurance on a CDO mortgage bond, even if I didn’t own that bond!
Not only that, but I could buy billions of dollars of insurance on a CDO that only contained millions of dollars of mortgages.
It’s like taking out a $1 million auto policy on a Honda Civic. No insurance company would allow you to do this, but it was happening all over Wall Street before 2008. This scenario essentially is “the big short” (see below)—making huge insurance bets that CDOs will fail—and many of the big banks were on the wrong side of this bet!
Credit default swaps involved the largest amounts of money in the subprime mortgage crisis. This is where the big Wall Street bets were taking place.
Quick definition: Short
A short is a bet that something will fail, get worse, or go down. When most people invest, they buy long (“I want this stock price to go up!”). A short is the opposite of that.
Certain individuals—like main characters Steve Eisman (aka Mark Baum in the movie, played by Steve Carrell) and Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale) in the 2015 Oscar-nominated film The Big Short—realized that tons of mortgages were being made to people who would never be able to pay them back.
If enough mortgages failed, then tranches of CDOs start to fail—no mortgage repayment means no rain, and no rain means the buckets stay empty. If CDOs fail, then the credit default swap insurance gets paid out. So what to do? Buy credit default swaps! That’s the quick and dirty way to explain the Big Short.
Why buy Dog Shit?
Wait a second. Why did people originally invest in these CDO bonds if they were full of “dog shit mortgages” (direct quote from the book) in the first place? Since The Big Short protagonists knew what was happening, shouldn’t the investors also have realized that the buckets would never get refilled?
For one, the prospectus—a fancy word for “owner’s manual”—of a CDO was very difficult to parse through. It was hard to understand exactly which mortgages were in the CDO. This is a skeevy big bank/CDO practice. And even if you knew which mortgages were in a CDO, it was nearly impossible to realize that many of those mortgages were made fraudulently.
The mortgage lenders were knowingly creating bad mortgages*.* They were giving loans to people with no hopes of repaying them. Why? Because the lenders knew they could immediately sell that mortgage—that risk—to a big bank, which would then securitize the mortgage into a CDO, and then sell that CDO to investors. Any risk that the lender took by creating a bad mortgage was quickly transferred to the investor.
So…because you can’t decipher the prospectus to tell which mortgages are in a CDO, it was easier to rely on the CDO’s rating than to evaluate each of the underlying mortgages. It’s the same reason why you don’t have to understand how engines work when you buy a car; you just look at Car & Driver or Consumer Reports for their opinions, their ratings.
The Ratings Agencies
Investors often relied on ratings to determine which bonds to buy. The two most well-known ratings agencies from 2008 were Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (heard of the S&P 500?). The ratings agency’s job was to look at a CDO that a big bank created, understand the underlying assets (in this case, the mortgages), and give the CDO a rating to determine how safe it was. A good rating is “AAA”—so nice, it got ‘A’ thrice.
So, were the ratings agencies doing their jobs? No! There are a few explanations for this:
  1. Even they—the experts in charge of grading the bonds—didn’t understand what was going on inside a CDO. The owner’s manual descriptions (prospectuses) were too complicated. In fact, ratings agencies often relied on big banks to teach seminars about how to rate CDOs, which is like a teacher learning how to grade tests from Timmy, who still pees his pants. Timmy just wants an A.
  2. Ratings agencies are profit-driven companies. When they give a rating, they charge a fee. But if the agency hands out too many bad grades, then their customers—the big banks—will take their requests elsewhere in hopes of higher grades. The ratings agencies weren’t objective, but instead were biased by their need for profits.
  3. Remember those fraudulent mortgages that the lenders were making? Unless you did some boots-on-the-ground research, it was tough to uncover this fact. It’s hard to blame the ratings agencies for not catching this.
Who’s to blame?
Everyone? Let’s play devil’s advocate…

To explain further, there are two things going on here.
First, Goldman Sachs bankers were selling CDOs to investors. They wanted to make a commission on the sale.
At the same time, other bankers ALSO AT GOLDMAN SACHS were buying credit default swaps, a.k.a. betting against the same CDOs that the first Goldman Sachs bankers were selling.
This is like selling someone a racehorse with cancer, and then immediately going to the track to bet against that horse. Blankfein’s defense in this video is, “But the horse seller and the bettor weren’t the same people!” And the Congressmen responds, “But they worked for the same stable, and collected the same paychecks!”
So do the big banks deserve blame? You tell me.
Inspecting Goldman Sachs
One reason Goldman Sachs survived 2008 is that they began buying credit default swaps (insurance) just in time before the housing market crashed. They were still on the bad side of some bets, but mostly on the good side. They were net profitable.
Unfortunately for them, the banks that owed Goldman money were going bankrupt from their own debt, and then Goldman never would have been able to collect on their insurance. Goldman would’ve had to payout on their “bad” bets, while not collecting on their “good” bets. In their own words, they were “toast.”
This is significant. Even banks in “good” positions would’ve gone bankrupt, because the people who owed the most money weren’t able to repay all their debts. Imagine a chain; Bank A owes money to Bank B, and B owes money to Bank C. If Bank A fails, then B can’t collect their debt, and B can’t pay C. Bank C made “good” bets, but aren’t able to collect on them, and then they go out of business.
These failures would’ve rippled throughout the world. This explains why the US government felt it necessary to bail-out the banks. That federal money allowed banks in “good” positions to collect their profits and “stop the ripple” from tearing apart the world economy. While CDOs and credit default swap explain the Big Short starting, this ripple of failure is the mechanism that affected the entire world.
Betting more than you have
But if someone made a bad bet—sold bad insurance—why didn’t they have money to cover that bet? It all depends on risk. If you sell a $100 million insurance policy, and you think there’s a 1% chance of paying out that policy, what’s your exposure? It’s the potential loss multiplied by the probability = 1% times $100 million, or $1 million.
These banks sold billions of dollars of insurance under the assumption that there was a 5%, or 3%, or 1% chance of the housing market failing. So they had 20x, or 30x, or 100x less money on hand then they needed to cover these bets.
Turns out, there was a 100% chance that the market would fail…oops!
Blame, expounded
Ratings agencies—they should be unbiased. But they sold themselves off for profit. They invited the wolves—big banks—into their homes to teach them how to grade CDOs. Maybe they should read a blog to explain the Big Short to them. Of course they deserve blame. Here’s another anecdote of terrible judgment from the ratings agencies:
Think back to my analogy of the buckets and the rain. Sometimes, a ratings agency would look at a CDO and say, “You’re never going to fill up these buckets all the way. Those final tranches—the ones that won’t get filled—they’re really risky. So we’re going to give them a bad grade.” There were “Dog Shit” tranches, and Dog Shit gets a bad grade.
But then the CDO managers would go back to their offices and cut off the top of the buckets. And they’d do this for all their CDOs—cutting off all the bucket-top rings from all the different CDO buckets. And then they’d super-glue the bucket-top rings together to create a field full of Frankenstein buckets, officially called a CDO squared. Because the Frankenstein buckets were originally part of other CDOs, the Frankenstein buckets could only start filling up once the original buckets (which now had the tops cut off) were filled. In other words, the CDO managers decided to concentrate all their Dog Shit in one place, and super glue it together.
A reasonable person would look at the Frankenstein Dog Shit field of buckets and say, “That’s turrible, Kenny.”
BUT THE RATINGS AGENCIES GAVE CDO-SQUAREDs HIGH GRADES!!! Oh I’m sorry, was I yelling?!
“It’s diversified,” they would claim, as if Poodle shit mixed with Labrador shit is better than pure Poodle shit.
Again, you tell me. Do the ratings agencies deserve blame?!
Does the government deserve blame?
Yes and no.
For example, part of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1992 mandated that the government mortgage finance firms (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) purchase a certain number of sub-prime mortgages.
On its surface, this seems like a good thing: it’s giving money to potential home-buyers who wouldn’t otherwise qualify for a mortgage. It’s providing the American Dream.
But as we’ve already covered today, it does nobody any good to provide a bad mortgage to someone who can’t repay it. That’s what caused this whole calamity. Freddie and Fannie and HUD were pumping money into the machine, helping to enable it. Good intentions, but they weren’t paying attention to the unintended outcomes.
And what about the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), the watchdogs of Wall Street. Do they have a role to explain the Big Short? Shouldn’t they have been aware of the Big Banks, the CDOs, the ratings agencies?
Yes, they deserve blame too. They’re supposed to do things like ensure that Big Banks have enough money on hand to cover their risky bets. This is called proper “risk management,” and it was severely lacking. The SEC also had the power to dig into the CDOs and ferret out the fraudulent mortgages that were creating them. Why didn’t they do that?
Perhaps the issue is that the SEC was/is simply too close to Wall Street, similar to the ratings agencies getting advice from the big banks. Watchdogs shouldn’t get treats from those they’re watching. Or maybe it’s that the CDOs and credit default swaps were too hard for the SEC to understand.
Either way, the SEC doesn’t have a good excuse. If you’re in bed with the people you’re regulating, then you’re doing a bad job. If you’re rubber stamping things you don’t understand, then you’re doing a bad job.
Explain the Big Short, shortly
You’re about 2500 words into my “short summary.” But the important things to remember:

And with that, I’d like to announce the opening of the Best Interest CDO. Rather than invest in mortgages, I’ll be investing in race horses. Don’t ask my why, but the current top stallion is named ‘Dog Shit.’ He’ll take Wall Street by storm.
If you don’t mind my cussing but you do like this content, consider subscribing to the email list to get these articles (and nothing more) sent to your inbox every week.
I hope this post helped if you were looking for someone to explain the Big Short. Thanks for reading the Best Interest.

Source: https://bestinterest.blog/explain-the-big-short/
submitted by CrosscourtFade to investing [link] [comments]

Elephants on the Field: Week 2

Elephants

Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.

Things I'm right about (so far):

1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor:
With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.
A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine:
Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.
Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1
Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.
Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).

Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!

HA! Next section!

Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:

1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good.
If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.
Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green all night:
A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.
Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back.
...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.
Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff top-graded QB right now btw.

Fresh takes:

1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL.
The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield.
Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...in high school:
Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.
He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:

https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9
The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player.
Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade:
Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about:
Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.

Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions

WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.
  1. JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
  2. Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
  3. Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
  4. Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!


Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!

EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.
submitted by atrophiedambitions to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

The "Apology" for not being "Christian-Like" towards me... Not exactly a happy ending because she wished my death, pretty awkward.

I don't give anyone permission to post anywhere else... all that good stuff.
For anyone who didn't read at least my first story: the summary... this was years ago. DH and I have been together for over a decade now, we are VLC with her and I'm by default NC with her because she started giving me the silent treatment so I returned the favor. We've been married for a few years and we're very happy and happier for her not being in our lives. I'm not happy that this was the outcome but she dug her own grave and it's not for me to get her out. Truthfully, I wouldn't even know how because she has some serious cuts and scars to mend with me and I won't speak for DH totally, but he's been out of the FOG and refuses to tolerate her crap just to have a relationship.
So from my last little tid bit (see the bot) I explained that things with DH's (BF at the time) family was simply different. They didn't do anything together really and things were just divided for the most part. It was a lame story but it'll all be relevant as time goes on, but that's the summary. Now, his mother truly believes that they are a very close family with this inseparable bond. Over the years she has made so many comments to DH (more than I will ever know) and quite a few passive aggressive comments to me. MIL openly talks about BF being the golden child, BIL is salivating for her attention and to point out all that is wrong with BF. It's just a really unsteady boat.
The more I saw her, the more she judged me but still never got to know me. I'm a downright TERRIBLE person because I had 1 tattoo at the time (now have 3 and planning on #4 this fall/winter). She would go on and on and on about how they're disgusting and only delinquents and sinners get tattoos directly to my face. Props for saying it to my face but what exactly am I suppose to say back without being disrespectful? I really didn't want to make DH's life hell by telling off his mom so it left me in a pickle. She really tried to make me feel like shit. I mean... this one didn't work but still, wtf is your goal by saying this shit?
She would then proceed to cry to me that she didn't want BF to get one and I need to stop influencing him. WTF. How exactly do you respond to that you ask? Well you tell her to fuck off and shove it up her ass. But I didn't. I said something like, "You realize I don't have the same beliefs as you and I'm going to school to get a doctorate, right? A tattoo that you never see (it's on my ribs) just isn't a big deal anymore and I'm far from a delinquent."
But her babbbbyyyyyy might get one and she simply couldn't handle it. Guys... DH has zero desire to get a tattoo. Like none. He doesn't exactly care what I do with tattoos to my body (although I think he would formulate an opinion if I came home with a penis tattooed on my forehead) but he, himself, said he doesn't feel the need to get anything. I doubt that will change. I would bet my paycheck on it - Oh wait... I did but I would happily pay up just to see her reaction now (that's just me being petty). I ended the conversation with something along the lines of "Well you really don't know your son if you think he would get a permanent tattoo on his body just because his GF has one" ....apparently that wasn't the right response. Found out from SIL-W(Now wife of BIL) a few weeks later that she was still crying a river to them that she was just so scared he would make such a poor decision. Like this seriously kept her up at night.
Oh why else was I a bad person at this point in time?
I'm a bad person because I "constantly put down" BF. Well... I'm not really sure how to navigate this one without being painfully honest here so hang with me.... I actually started to point out all the ways she was a shitty mom to him, but she took this to be me putting down BF. Well that backfired and apples didn't fall correctly, clearly. Let me explain: DH didn't know how to use a ratchet set let alone a screwdriver. Laundry was a learning experience. He didn't know how to cook really (FF: he's an amazing cook and his homemade meatballs are out of this world). He ate like 6 foods until I literally took on this persona of a psycho girlfriend who made him try EVERYTHING and his roommates got him to try different spices and wings so now he's less of a 5 year old and has a solid adult-range diet. Stuff where it was just like.... why is he a grown adult and doesn't know this? She would make comments about BF like I was his mother as well and expect me to "fix" the issue...so I only found it fair to point out every way she sucked or encouraged him to formulate these bad habits that she now has a problem with. It's not my job to fix shit. I'm not in a relationship to "fix him" (but yes, I would like to eat more than pizza, pancakes, chicken nuggets and french fries so I did push that one for my sanity, not his). So she spun it where I talked bad about him when in reality I was judging her parenting because I was starting to landslide. Not the best approach. For anyone reading who is currently dealing with this type of shit: don't be passive aggressive. It's not worth the fucking time and energy. Just call her out or move on to laugh about it.
I'm also a bad person because I would defend DH - apparently that wasn't okay either. So back to that crap where she would complain to me about BF and then expect me to fix things... One summer when the Olympics were on and BF is really into them while subsequently losing weight and getting healthy. He spent weeks in his room watching them while on a stationary bike or elliptical or whatever which wasn't far from the norm past his workout obsession... as I've said, they don't do anything together. Well, MIL all of a sudden wanted a closer family (probably to remove my "influence" from him) and seriously complained to me about him being antisocial and asked if he's acts this way when he's away at college. All I can say is... I didn't appreciate her bashing him when this is the atmosphere she created. So, I stuck up for him. "Oh that's so funny because he's really social at college. Although it doesn't seem like he's doing anything different than any other summer home. You guys have never done anything as a family so I'm not sure why you think that's changed" Wrong. Answer.
I'm also a bad person because she didn't like that I drank and I was forcing her perfect son to drink at college. Yes - you read that correctly. She flat out blamed me for him drinking and it never crossed her mind that he chose to drink, I didn't have some magical vagina that made him fall under a spell to get fucked up. New flash bitch: he tried alcohol in high school well before he met me, but yup I'm the influence holding his mouth open to pour fireball and vodka down it.... but I couldn't say that. So I took the hit for being "that girl" again over the years.
So overall.... She kept throwing digs about me or DH and I answered them in the mildest form possible which ended up being passive aggressive, while trying to not be completely steam rolled, but it was a waste because she just treated me like shit anyway. Sometimes I threw a dig back and sometimes I brushed it off. Overall, she was just buying her time waiting for us to break up... Yup... she's still waiting. SIL told me that MIL made a ton of comments on how I'm so disrespectful and it pissed me off. So you can say whatever you want to me including openly dissing me but I'm suppose to what? Kiss your ass? Say thank you? So.... I was very aware of how she felt about me and what she says even though DH didn't directly tell me, it's not fucking rocket science here.
Side note: MIL has like.... one friend. She calls BIL and he's her sounding board for everything. Frankly, I find it really unhealthy for you to be treating your child like your therapist... just like... go to a therapist. So how things work in this family is something happens (or basically nothing) she runs to BIL and spins the entire thing to her fancy, BIL tells SIL, SIL comes running to me to get our side while BIL makes backhanded comments to DH about how he needs to be better with MIL or whatever. Both MIL and BIL operate by guilt tripping and it's just fucking annoying. It worked on DH for a few years and then it was like a switch flipped and it's yet to work again. I will say, I shut this little drama train down a few years ago and it's much nicer. Once in a while I get pissed enough to engage but it's rare. Now I just let everything go to shit, let BIL think what he wants while making ridiculous assumptions and him and MIL are little butt buddies who talk shit but have no guts to actually say it or own up to their part.. fun, right?!
So to the story of how she once again used her religious crap on me to really show that she's just a Holy Hypocrite. Welcome to her name everyone, I have a winner of a MIL.
SIL (little sister) decided she was going to go to prom with her friends and she was really excited. I truly don't know 100% if I offered or she asked me... but I'm pretty sure I offered... to do her hair and makeup. I think I offered because I was home from college so only about 2 hours away (versus 5), she was talking to me at that time for whatever reason, I worked it out with DH where he was coming home and we would drive back to college together, and if she was going to ask someone I would think she would've asked her other SIL-W (BILs wife) since they were closer; I imagine I offered. I also did SILs hair a few other times we were together - nothing fancy just some french braid based that I can do in my sleep so it's not like this would be completely out of the blue.
HH doesn't wear a lick of makeup and does nothing with her hair so that option was out, obviously. If SIL wanted to look good she had to look elsewhere. Like many of the ladies know hair and makeup is wicked expensive and I happen to be really good at both, at least for prom quality so SIL took me up on the offer.
I had her send me pictures of her dress, some different hair styles that I thought might look good on he the dress and she seemed really excited. MIL texts me and wants to "confirm" if I was really willing to put myself out to do her hair and makeup because she didn't want her daughter to get her hopes up but also wanted to see if I was charging her so she could set aside the money because this type of thing is an arm and a leg and she's a single mother. I was kind of pissed about this. She really thinks so low of me that I would be texting her daughter, in writing, that I was committing to doing all of this, and at no charge (none the less) but would just bail and ruin her one and only prom? Especially over.. what... $100? Wow. Cool. I specifically told her that I would do it for free, I was just happy to be able to make her prom everything she hoped - it was never about money. I mean really? Why would I spend all that money on traveling down to slave over her hair and makeup for $100 or whatever versus sitting at home watching HIMYM? I made it clear and it was obvious I was thrilled to be able to do something, anything for SIL to be happy - It's not about you HH.
Next Text: She says something along the lines of really underestimating me and my intentions prior and she would like to have a private conversation with me one on one to apologize for not being Christian like towards me when I come to do her hair and makeup.
GUYS, I FINALLY DID IT. IT TOOK 4.5 YEARS BUT SHE'S REALIZING I'M NOT A TERRIBLE PERSON. I'm like... fucking thrilled. I'm sitting here thinking we will finally be on the same page. She can accept me as a person rather than a walking sinner... holy shit maybe BF won't have this unknown future. Well... you read the title so you know I was naive and should've never agreed to a one-on-one talk.
So I do SILs hair and makeup... she looks... amazing. She started to tear up and said she actually looks pretty (SIL has some self confidence issues and the lack of ability to do her hair and makeup at that point in time was a big trigger IMO). My heart is ripping into two and I'm so thankful I chose to be apart of this and made a difference in her experience. (FF: her hair and makeup was the only one to make it through the night let alone into the next day so basically a "brush your shoulders off" moment for me.) HH is ecstatic that she's on cloud 9... all is right in the world. They leave to all go take pictures with friends and HH comes back.
HH signals me into the living room to have our little talk. It starts off really nice. She's telling me the Bible says XYZ and she clearly hasn't been living up to those standards in regards to me so she really wants to move forward. We talked for probably a good 30 minutes getting to know each other more and she's telling me funny stories about how BF was as a child. I'm getting all the warm and fuzzies. This is what I'm good at. I'm good at being open, no bullshit, and just finding happiness - this felt so natural and raw. Well all good things come to a fucking end.
She brings up BFs religious beliefs and she's afraid that he's pulling away from God and it's only happened because of me coming into his life. She keeps pressuring me. She brings it up again and again and again. Yes, he went off to college and became his own person... during that time he also met me. It's a pretty logical coincidence that freedom allowed him to formulate his own opinions and of of those opinions was he wanted to date me. Shocker, I know. HOW could this all happen - at once?! Nope. I'm to blame. Me and my magical vagina.
What she doesn't know and BF has never talked with her about is - he doesn't actually believe in her religion let alone her views. He openly says (to me) there were many parts of Church growing up but at the end of the day he isn't committed like she is and he doesn't plan to be. He knows she will be disappointment and he doesn't want to after being the perfect child for so long. He just doesn't feel it in his soul. He struggles with a lot of his mother's specific views and I think it left a really bad taste in his mouth overall.
I keep throwing it off saying "While I understand you feel that way this is a conversation you should have with your son, this isn't the conversation to have with me" "BF has his own views that are his to tell, I'm not going to speak for him" "It sounds like this matters a lot to you, but that's not for me to answer. You need to have this conversation with him."
After about the tenth time, I caved. I said something like "Well BF has his own reservations and he makes his own decisions. He has chosen not to go to church at college, that has nothing to do with me. He would rather watch football every Sunday and he has never once asked me to go yet I've offered half a dozen times. So maybe you need to accept that BF isn't the same person as when he left for college because that's who he is choosing to be irregardless of me."
She just about loses it and dives into every single other little time she has been disappointed in BF and how she knows it's my doing.
One example: BF got drunk at a Halloween party and accidentally sent the snap to his sister where he was clearly drunk... wouldn't you know it, that's my fault!!!! Ha. In reality: I was at work and met up with him and his roommates when he was already gone. I had nothing to do with it. But here we are again, her blaming me for him drinking alcohol like... three times a year... okay.
She finally says word for word "I pray every day that something happens to you so you can no longer be with BF" as she looked up to the sky with her hands physically praying.
Just to recap: In a conversation that she asked for to apologize to me for not being "Christian-like" towards me... she wishes I would die.
Holy. Hypocrite.
Well... that's the last time we were alone in a room together and that was over 5 years ago.

Also: I keep "flairing" No Advice Wanted because it was like... 5 years ago... but feel free to spill some tea ladies and gents.
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