Definition of a Teaser in Terms of Sports Betting – Nakatim

NFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 3)

What are the best teasers to play? Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is:
The strategy listed above is very similar to the strategy written by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong in his book Sharp Sports Betting. There's debate in Wong teasers over whether we should play games at exactly +3, whether we should care about the home team, and whether we should care about the total.
My opinions on those three debates are yes to +3, no to home/road splits, and maybe to totals. Read my post in Week 1 for the full mathematical details.
What are the best sweetheart teasers? 10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Our methodology on 10-point teasers is:
Will following this strategy definitely mean I make money? Once upon a time, this strategy used to be quite reliable. In 2020, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable.
Personally, I'm not ready to commit real money to this strategy yet. Rather, I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits.
What were the results in Week 2 this year? I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest about what the closing numbers were.) These were the games and results in Week 2 this year:
Off-the-board 6 pt 10 pt
Atlanta +3 Win
Los Angeles Rams +1½ Win Win
Minnesota +3 Loss
Baltimore -7½ Win
San Francisco -7½ Win
Tampa Bay -7½ Win
What percentage of teaser legs have hit in the past? Assuming that a 2-team, 6-point teaser pays out at -120, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to have positive EV.
For 3-team sweethearts paying out at -130, the threshold is 82.7%.
Teaser Year Team Record
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 61-23 72.6%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 63-19 76.8%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-16 76.4%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 7-1 87.5%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 27-10 73.0%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 16-9 64.0%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 17-7 70.8%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 6-1 85.7%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 22-1 95.7%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 24-5 82.8%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 23-4 85.2%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 3-0 100.0%
What are the Week 3 plays being tracked? As of the time of this post, these would be the Wong plays for this week.
  • Green Bay +3
  • Los Angeles Rams +2
  • Miami +3 (Thursday)
  • Minnesota +3
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial. If the line moves between the time of this post and kickoff of the game, you might see some games fall off of this list or some games be added to this list.
The determining factors are what sbrodds.com says Bovada's closing line is and the methodology laid out at the top of this post. If Bovada's spread happens to be a point or so off of the consensus or if they engage in line shading, then so be it.
However I reserve the right to reject Bovada's number in situations where it's obviously wrong, such as a typo causing -8 to turn into -80. In all of my data so far, I've yet to invoke this right. If I ever do in the future, I promise to disclose that information anytime I post tracking results.
Why play the closing lines? The strategy is to bet into the "most accurate line" possible and the assumption is that later lines are more accurate. The word "accurate" here is meant to describe a situation where the probability of the actual result landing on either side of the line is close to 50/50.
To win a teaser bet, we can either beat the regular spread or win the leg because the actual final score (margin) landed on a number that we gained through teaser movement.
Teaser leg win% = Beat regular spread or Margin lands on line movement
??? = probability X + probability Y
There's two variables in the probability equation above, so let's talk about both of them. First is your ability to beat the normal spread, written as probability X. You have two options for X:
  • Door #1: bet into an accurate line, in which case X is 50%.
  • Door #2: bet into an inaccurate line, in which case X is either below 50% or above 50%.
The act of choosing door #2 is to "handicap" the game yourself; you find inaccurate lines by taking advantage of virgin numbers or by forming your own opinion on the game based on what you know about the teams. Door #1 is to ignore all information.
In a straight bet ATS, probability X is the only way to win the bet. (That is to say, Y=0 in a non-teaser.) Because the payout is usually around -110, door #1 is guaranteed to be a losing strategy in straight ATS bets. Nobody can beat the spread consistently by blinding throwing darts at the board. That's why you're encouraged to pick door #2 in straight bets ATS. If you're already good at picking door #2, then more power to you; keep making your money by beating the regular spread on normal non-teaser bets.
The reason why you're encouraged to pick door #1 in Wong teasers is because you're taking advantage of the teaser line movement. In the equation from above, X=50% is sufficient if we can make probability Y large enough. Y depends on your ability to tease through key numbers.
Sure, X greater than 50% is nice to have. But if the situation says X=50% is enough, what's the incentive in risking door #2?
How can I play tonight's game if I'm supposed to wait for closing numbers on Sunday's games? This post is merely counting what percentage of Wong legs hit. It's meant to determine your expected value on Wong teasers, not necessarily your actual value. Whether or not tonight's Miami +9 hits is relevant in determining the long-term validity of future Wong teasers as a whole. Whether or not you're able to get action down on tonight's Miami +9 isn't within the scope of this post.
That having been said, some books will allow you to play open-ended teasers where you can fill in the first leg now and the second leg later. But also keep in mind that my official advice regarding Wong teasers is to not play them until further research is conducted.
How often are you going to post? Once a week. Usually Saturday evening, but I will adjust the timeline forward in situations where the Thursday game is potentially a tracked play.
submitted by blackjack_counter to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Guide to Recruiting for Quant/ Trading Roles

Hi all,
I've had a few people reach out to me about advice on recruiting for Quant so I thought I could share my experience to help others who are interested.
Prep:
Understand these positions are extremely competitive and mainly go to math/stats/cs students at top targets. That being said, it is possible to get a position if you don't go to a target but you need a really strong quantitative skillset either way.
The structure of the interviews for most shops are: online math/logic test, 1-3x phone interviews, and final round in person. At each level, they try to reduce the applicant pool by >70%, with the initial math test weeding out the most. In my experience, the math tests are a mix of mental math, stats/probability, sequences, and sometimes trading/gambling simulators. It is extremely important that you practice even if you have taken advanced stats/math classes.
For mental math, I used rank your brain on expert and didn't apply until I was scoring around ~30. There are a lot of resources to practice probability questions but I used Quant Job Interview by Mark Joshi and just did the probability, brain teaser, and option pricing questions. The key to studying these is to really understand the logic of solving any question. There's no point memorizing answers if you can't talk through the logic of it. There were a few instances where I'd actually get the wrong answer but moved forward because my logic was correct. If you don't have much stats experience, I'd recommend taking a bayesian statistics and game theory course. Bayesian concepts are especially applicable to trading. For option pricing, I never got many question on the greeks but there were a fair amount of calculating probabilities of outcomes given option prices. A simple example to think of is (if a painting could either be worth $100k if its real or $1k if its fake, and you receive an option to buy it for $30k, assuming the option is priced fairly, what are the probabilities of each outcome).
Some firms have a coding part to the interviews but in most cases, you don't need much coding skill. If you are applying to a more algo-focused shop, you should be prepared to answer algorithm questions. For those, you just have to have a lot of CS knowledge. I wouldn't focus on these types of firms if you don't have a strong CS background.
During phone interviews, I got a mix of behavioral ("Why trading?") and math/stats questions. The math questions range from combinatorics to matrix algebra but you don't really need to know a lot of theory. For stats, they are a bit harder than initial assessment but not too bad. For a phone interview, practice with a friend talking through your logic for a given question. Practice breaking up the problem into components that can ultimately drive the solution. Also have some relevant projects/ ideas that you can speak to in depth.
For the final round, you just have to really feel comfortable that you know your shit. There will be more rigorous probability/math questions and some problems may not have a known solution. Just remember, the way you explain your logic is far more important than getting to the answer. Also a few places had some type of trading simulation game. That's harder to prep for but you may be able to find some online.
Resume/ Application:
I would recommend making a resume specific for trading where you highlight more quantitative skills/ experience. For example, I had an internship at a VC but focused more on how I modeled companies in different verticals and talked about a machine learning tool I made for the firm. Also it is fine to include school/ personal projects. For example, I made a sports betting algorithm that predicted game outcomes and sized positions using MPT. That led to a lot of interesting conversations with recruiters. Some firms do have referral programs so it would be worth reaching out to someone you know at a firm but it won't get you far. Usually, it'll just get you to the initial math test.
If you manage your own portfolio, it could be worth mentioning. Be sure to word it in a way that shows it's something you're interested in and not that you're a trading god (you're not).
A lot of firms require a high GPA (>3.6) but if you're not there just list your major gpa if applicable or don't include it. Networking/ cold emailing does very little to help you since relationships aren't as crucial in this business.
If you're lacking relevant projects, I'd recommend learning python and playing around with some statistical modeling packages (sklearn, keras/tf, scipy).
Most firms usually automatically send you a math test when you apply so be sure to practice a lot before applying. It might help to have a friend to help you if you feel unprepared but know they'll expect you to perform similar if you move forward.
Firm Reputations/ Comp:
  1. Market making: These firms are known to have extremely smart people but have better work life balance than others. Examples are Optiver, IMC, DRW, etc..
  2. Prop Firms: Beware there are a ton of scummy places that claim to be prop but really it's just an arcade shop. If any firm claims you need to put in your own capital or they won't pay you a base salary is not worth the time. Prop kinda overlaps with market making but some examples are Jane Street capital, Akuna, Jump, etc ...
  3. Hedge Funds: IMO, the most exciting but also worst work life balance. Examples are Citadel, Bridgewater, twosigma.
Comp across the board ranges from $150k-$500k all in. Normal breakdown is $100-$200k base, $30-100k signing bonus, then another $50k-150k performance bonus. Pretty sure citadel pays the most but it sucks to work there.
As far as reputations go, during my interviews I always had a pleasant experience. Most people are nice and polite and are happy to help you understand the firm more. I found Bridgewater's culture to be pretty weird. For example, they have an automated system that tracks everything you do or say so you can get an email saying you said the word "um" 3.6 times in the past week and need to communicate more effectively. At Citadel, all traders looked like they wanted to die but they're all rich. Other than that, if you can get into a top shop, you'll learn a lot and most are a very collaborative working environment.
Conclusion:
Understand that making money in trading is extremely difficult and competitive. Dont think you can easily gain an edge or identify unique opportunities because there's usually someone more experienced and smarter on the other side. That being said, if you work hard and spend time to understand your focus/ niche, there may be opportunities.
Yes, recruiting for this role is extremely competitive and stressful. More so than IB/PE imo. It can be disheartening at times, but stay motivated and try to improve. I got rejected by a ton of firms and it definitely can weigh in on you, but if you work hard and keep with it, something positive is bound to come.

Hope that helps. Good luck!
submitted by traders101023443 to FinancialCareers [link] [comments]

All possible Sony game reveals we could see with PS5 reveal.


Barring the Housemarque title not being a Sony game, I think we will see all of these announced for PS5 before it's launch. Perhaps not in the same presentation as that seems exessive.
submitted by AyyarKhan to PS5 [link] [comments]

r/sportsbook Week in Review

I spend far too much time in this sub—enough that I feel like I've met one guy’s wife—and so much that most of the stories I tell the guys at work involve something my “friend” told me. So, congratulations to everyone in here for becoming my friend, though as it stands, none of you will be receiving invitations to my birthday party.
With all that time spent, the least I can do is provide you degens with a periodic round-up of how fucked up yet simultaneously great this place is. It might provide you with some perspective, it might provide you with a few laughs, but it probably won’t provide you with any helpful gambling advice. Here we go…
Sport of the Week: College Football? Snooker please! The sub’s new favorite sport needs no explanation of the rules to American bettors (it’s just what the Brits call billiards, right?). A snooker god is amongst us and the hype is real. With the recent rise in the sport’s popularity via this sub, I would be surprised if snooker does not move all the way up to at least ESPN 8. My advice: tail, but tail responsibly (with the second half of those instructions being as mandatory as “Drink Responsibly” is to a college student).
POTDOTW: Although it was a loser in the end, The Pick of the Day of the Week was a ballsy one: Washington Generals ML @ Harlem Globetrotters on Monday. Now, my model actually had the Globetrotters winning this one, but sometimes you just can’t argue with logic—and the logic said that the Generals were due for a win. Admittedly, tremendous value in the ML here.
Unfortunately, it didn’t play out that way, and the Globetrotters took yet another W over the Generals. I am not sure who the commissioner of that league is, but you have to think there is some pressure being applied for greater parity. Have you ever heard anyone say “I’m taking my kids to see the Generals this weekend”? I didn’t think so. I hope there is an efficient revenue-sharing model in place.
Capper of the Week: Definitely not “That guy’s wife”. With her red hot start a few weeks ago, I started wondering if she worked in the league office and was tipping off her husband. Following her performance the last couple of weeks, I am wondering if she exists at all, or this guy is just hiding behind a mirage of “his wife”. Her Thanksgiving day picks had me feeling thankful that I don’t tail the picks of a stranger’s wife on Reddit. Her Seahawks pick over the Rams looked good on paper, but she forgot that fading Reddit works 100% of the time, as long as you don't believe in confirmation bias.
I did however try placing a bet on “Redditor to make joke about ‘Riding his wife hard’ YES” in Sunday’s thread, but my book took it off the board before I could submit it. I had planned to parlay it with “Redditor to explain ‘crossing zero in a teaser is bad value’ YES”.
Ask for upvotes and you shall receive …a 7-day ban. Welcome back but also apparently goodbye to "Europe’s best handicapper"! I am starting to wonder if I should move to Europe and attempt to take over his title. Based on what I have heard about his recent record outside of Reddit, the job seems fairly easy. I’m just undecided on where I will disappear to when my record goes south.
“CP forever. CP til’ I die.” Or CP until he drops off the face of the earth. At this point, we can only hope CP is safe and his wife doesn’t have his balls in a vice grip right now.
The Ruling on the Field: I know a lot of people had Patriots -3 this week, which was really a boneheaded play, given how the Patriots have looked recently. I wanted to make a joke at the expense of New England bettors, but Jerome Boger’s crew told me those jokes are out of bounds. I would challenge them on that, but, you know…
Picks? Anybody need picks? Got picks here: If betting on the Spurs against the spread (6-17 ATS this year) hasn’t been an efficient enough method of throwing your cash away, a well-known poster out there (who I will not name) is now selling his previously free picks for the low low price of $129 per week. The only condition he sets is that all bets you place must be 1 unit, conveniently ensuring your subscription will never pay for itself.
Things I didn’t watch: the Anthony Joshua fight. I hope everyone was able to make some bread, but personally, I try to avoid wagering on boxing. It is easily the most rigged sport in the world. Or at least it is until someone ends up on the wrong side of an NBA bet, or Bill Belichick is seen on the telephone near the end of a Patriots game.
Most of you are probably asking: who are you and why are you doing this? The answer is that I have another username I post under but don’t want to mix my profiles. As for why? I don’t really know. I hatched the idea on my commute home from work a few hours ago. My job has zero room for any jokes or humor, so I thought this might be a good release. If you liked it, great. If you didn’t...oh well.
submitted by SBinReview to sportsbook [link] [comments]

A Rewrite of Pokemon Sword and Shield's Story

When I finished Sword, I was massively disappointed in the story quality. While I had fun with various aspects of the game, the story felt like a train wreck from the start. So, in a bored (and perhaps slightly drunk) state, I loaded up a video of all the cutscenes and tried to rewrite it to match the kind of story pacing that previous Pokemon titles had.
This is most definitely a "First Draft" quality effort. No real editing has been done. I'm not entirely happy with how some "arcs" turned out or how little certain characters were used (Team Yell ended up being largely background characters). But I figured I'd post it anyway and see if people like where it's headed.

Core Goals

  1. Return the primary message of the game to Loving Pokemon Makes You Win
  2. Keep the tone and writing within the realm of what one would expect from a game targeting children, and in line with previous Pokemon games
  3. Change as few of the “story beats” as possible, though some may be rearranged.
  4. Create character and story impact through minor changes to actions and characterization that add up in the long run.
  5. Do as much as possible without changing gameplay elements (“suggestions” aiming at that regard will be made with a [GPC] tag)
  6. Create proper motivations for character actions
  7. This is not a “complete script”, but rather something more akin to storyboarding the changes to the original story. Anything not discussed or mentioned in the original story can be assumed to be unchanged.

Chapter 1: The Opening

Scene: Opening Cutscene

The introduction of the Gym Challenge goes largely as it is in the game, but with significantly more focus on the competition aspect. The match, however, is not an exhibition match, but instead it is last year’s grand finals. After the logo appears, it fades and zooms out to show your character watching this on their Rotom Phone. Your mother comes over to ask if you are watching last year’s finals yet again. She mentions that Leon will be in town today visiting his family who lives nearby - but figures you probably need no reminder of that! You are then given control, prepped with your bag and outfit, and allowed to head out.

Scene: Into the Village

As the camera pans out from your house, you can see the other houses leading down to a train station where a train pulls into station. Control is then given back to you.
The gate next to your house is open, but with an older farmer playing with a Wooloo nearby. He’ll have a unique name, but we’ll just call him Guard Farmer. If you attempt to go that way, he tells you the woods contain too many strong Pokemon for an unequipped youngster, and insists you not enter.
Instead of entering Hop’s house, you proceed directly to the train station. On the way, there are a few trainers actively battling Pokemon in the wild grass. They block you from entering any area you might encounter a Pokemon.
At the train station, you see Hop standing in the crowd, who waves you over. He greets you and casually brings up that he hasn’t been around as much because he’s been training with Leon on the road until recently. He wastes no time showing you a written endorsement from Leon, allowing him into this year’s Gym Challenge.
In general, Hop is no longer the meek youngster in the shadow of his brother. Rather, he is a headstrong challenger made cocky by way of his brother’s success, presuming that this kind of natural skill must be in his genes.
Leon comes out of the station to an excited crowd, who begin chanting “Charizard!” After a moment of pause, he whips the Premium Ball from his belt and releases a roaring Charizard. He pets it affectionately as the crowd claps and he walks over to Hop. After some normal greetings, he tells Hop he has a special gift for him, and invites you to come along too - you are friends after all, and there’s not many fresh trainers in your village.
No mention is, or will be, made of Leon being bad with directions.

Scene: Picking your Starter

At Hop’s house, he reveals the three rare Pokemon he has brought with him, and tells Hop he can take one with him for a head start on the Gym Challenge. He says since he has several, he can give one to you as well. Hop can’t decide, so he insists you pick first. After picking, Hop picks the starter Weak to your starter, and insists you try them out in battle immediately. The battle goes similar to the normal one (albeit at a different point in the story), although Hop does not have a Wooloo.
After beating Hop, he gets very frustrated and tells Leon he’s changed his mind, and would rather take the starter Strong against your starter. Leon looks disappointed, but lets him switch, saying that he’ll take care of the starter he gave up. Leon then looks to you, and says he was impressed by the immediate bond you formed with your Pokemon. He tells you that if you keep that connection, you could be a truly great trainer, and decides to endorse you as well. Hop looks a bit shocked by this, but is not dismayed. Hop says that showing you his skills in the Gym Challenge will prove how talented he really is.
No wishing stars fall or are mentioned.
Leon tells you that no trainer can win the Gym Challenge without knowing a lot about Pokemon, so suggests you head to see Professor Magnolia and see if she has any Pokedexes to use on your journey.

Scene: Legendary Encounter

As you go to leave, a Wooloo rolls by. Hop says it looks like Guard Farmer’s Wooloo, and runs off to the gate (you automatically follow through a cutscene cut). You arrive at the gate to find Guard Farmer’s seat empty. Hop says something must have happened, and runs into the woods.
After making your way through a bit, you find Guard Farmer. He says a young child from the village ran into the woods so he had to chase after them, but his Wooloo got scared and rolled away. You continue on to find the child, when you hear howls, and the scene plays out much like it does in the real story. Leon appears to find you when he heard you didn’t go to the Professor’s lab.
Hop thanks Leon, and jets off ahead of you, reminding you not to miss the train out of town.

Scene: The Lab

Leon nor Hop are waiting at the lab for you. When you head in, Professor Magnolia is tending to her garden. Upon talking to her, she mentions that Hop just came and took her last Pokedex, but she thinks that her granddaughter is supposed to bring more from the city today. At that moment, Sonia walks in and delivers a package to Magnolia after greeting you. The professor gives you a fresh Pokedex, and asks Sonia how her research into the cause of Power Spots is going.
Sonia says it’s not going great, as she info-dumps aloud about how Power Spots allow the phenomenon known as Dynamaxing, etc. She does mention that in the past few years, a couple new power spots have formed.
Magnolia tells her to head back out, and watch the Gym Challenge closely. After all, almost every stadium is built near a power spot, so perhaps she’ll learn something! Sonia agrees, and realizes she should leave to catch the train. Magnolia mentions you probably should do the same, and wishes you luck in finding many new Pokemon along the way. She does mention telling your mother you’re leaving to take the challenge. (Your mother will grant you all the basic starting items - Pokeballs, potions, etc).
On the way back, the Wooloo blockade is up, forcing you to explore the grass a bit.
All other “story” cutscenes between here and taking the train are no longer present.

Chapter 2: Gyms 1-3

Scene: The Train and Wild Zone (to Motostoke)

You and Hop exchange some simple words of friendship and excitement on the train, although Hop retains an adamant position that everything he’s learned from Leon will make him the stronger trainer. He mentions that although the Gym Challenge has been going on for quite some time, it’s only in the past few years since Rose became Chairman that the event has become so advertised and prominent.
The train lights flash off and on, and the train stops at the Wild Zone station. The conductor announces that the train must end service here due to a brown-out. Hop explains the wild zone briefly, and says it should be no problem if you’re really up for the Gym Challenge.
Sonia looks nervous, and asks if she can tag along with you through the Wild Zone since her Pokemon aren’t trained for such a thing. She follows you through the zone while you go about your business, departing if you get near the Motostoke entrance. She thanks you for helping with a TM, and mentions you should heal up at the Pokemon Center in the city.
When you choose to enter the city, a quick video featuring Chairman Rose plays on a nearby billboard, announcing that the Gym Challenge opening ceremonies will take place later that day once all endorsed challengers have arrived.
The random cutscenes with Sonia, Leon, Hop, Bede, and Marnie, as well as the night at the hotel do not occur.

Scene: Gym Challenge Opening Ceremonies

When you enter the Gym, you see all the other challengers mulling about, and the league official behind the desk asks to see your endorsement. Once presented, he asks you to fill out all the final paperwork to register. Upon doing so, you choose your uniform number, as well as your challenger “title” ([GPC] - This could be a short phrase the game allows you to type, or one of a selectable list). You are then immediately invited in for the ceremony.
Instead of the eventless cutscene that is the opening ceremony in the main game, Chairman Rose introduces himself and invites all the “featured Challengers” to the field, stating they were all given endorsements by notable trainers. Your name, number, and title are shown, as well as all of those for Hop, Bede, and Marnie, as well as a few other trainers endorsed by other gym leaders. The chairman brings up that each endorsed challenger is given and authorized to use a Dynamax Band, which focuses the energy near Power Spots and allows you to Dynamax Pokemon. Part of your endorsement is the responsible use of such a tool.
After the ceremony, Hop will request a second battle to see what you’ve learned from the Wild Zone. After beating him, he’ll brush it off, insisting it just motivates him harder to get all the badges before you.
A quick note on Team Yell’s presence: they were likely hanging around before your registration, but have not made any fuss or blocked anything.
At any point, you may visit the hotel to see an optional cutscene with Sonia admiring the statue of “the hero” holding a sword and shield.

Scene: Mine #1

As you work your way through the mine, the workers you beat all mention in their flavor defeat text that the ore they’re digging up is to help power Charman Rose’s energy plant. When you reach the exit, Bede is waiting for you as normal. He says that he helped Chairman Rose with the research for his energy plant that opened a few years ago, and stopped by the mine to make sure it was operating properly, given the brown-outs. However, it’s the perfect time for him to demonstrate why the chairman endorsed him.
Defeating him makes him quite angry, as he huffs off saying he must find stronger Pokemon.

Scene: Turffield

Your introduction to the gym leader goes about as it does in the normal game, though he does complain about the eyesore to his village that the energy plant can be, as you can see it over the hills.
You find Sonia examining the relics of the town seeking information. She tells you about the Darkest Day, as normal, and brings up the relation of Dynamaxing and Power Spots.
Trying to leave early results in finding workers claiming to be from the Macro Cosmos Corporation, saying the path is currently blocked due to work on the energy plant making the road dangerous.
After winning the grass badge, you are left to your own devices, but various NPCs will mention going to the next town now that the plant repair is complete.
Upon leaving, you find the same scene of Team Yell harassing a man who is wearing an energy plant uniform. They see you’re a gym challenge participant, and accuse you of only using Pokemon to gain fame and recognition instead of truly loving them, just like the plant workers. After the battle, the man gives you the Rotom Bike as thanks.
Hop does not challenge you on the bridge.

Scene: Hulbury

The Chairman and his assistant are in town, but the Chairman is dressed much more professionally. He is talking to Bede but it is not shown what they are saying. After a moment, Bede leaves, shooting you a harsh glare as he walks by.
Chairman Rose and Oleana greet you warmly, and he tells you he’ll be in town for a bit, so if you’re still a challenger after facing the Water Gym, he’d love for you to join him for lunch.
When you find Nessa by the docks, she’s looking out over the ocean. She says that during the brown-outs earlier, she could swear she heard the pained cries of Pokemon in the ocean. She’s concerned that something happening at the energy plant could be affecting Pokemon in the area, and reveals that the power generation used at the plant was based on a breakthrough made while trying to emulate the kind of energy Power Spots emit.
After beating her, Nessa says that Pokemon only grow truly strong by appreciating them and bonding, which you clearly are doing.
During dinner with the Chairman, he talks about being excited about how strong the challengers are this year. He discusses Leon, saying that while he’s undefeated, he thinks it’s inevitable that someone even stronger must be out there. Oleana gets a call on her phone, and tells the Chairman they need to head out. He encourages you to train hard and leaves.
As you go to leave, you find Sonia, who said she wanted to get into Mine #2 and see if there was anything interesting to do with Power Spots there, since it’s placed so close to the towns and the energy plant. However, some plant workers aren’t allowing her through (leaving the town early results in simple construction barriers blocking you, with a sign that the mine is currently closed).

Scene: Mine #2

You fight the Macro Cosmos workers, who then let you into the mine. Sonia thanks you and runs ahead.
After you work your way through, you see Marnie finishing a beating on more workers at the other exit to the mine. She tells them they have no appreciation of their Pokemon and that’s why they lost. She introduces herself to you properly, saying she only entered the challenge because her brother insisted she represent Team Yell on the big stage. She requests a battle to gauge how close you are to your team.
Beating her brings a smile to her face, as she says she’s glad to meet someone else who understands the joy Pokemon can bring, even when they’re dark. She claims the Gym Challenge used to be about passionate trainers building bonds, but the efforts to make it a more popular “sport” have made the focus just on brutal fights.
You find Kabu as normal and can proceed back to Motostoke. He was in the mine helping quell some wild Pokemon who had gone out of control in the mine. Kabu mentions that the Energy Plant has brought such great prosperity to the region, that it must be maintained no matter the cost.
Bede does not appear in Mine #2.

Scene: Motostoke

You are still guided to the Motostoke hotel. Marnie is there, but does not challenge you to (another) battle, instead simply telling you that she’s keeping her eye on you, and hopes you don’t fall out of the Gym Challenge too early. She gives you some Burn Heals.
The Fire Gym goes as normal, with additional flavor text from Kabu that he has already ended several Challengers runs this year himself.

Scene: The Wild Zone (to Hammerlocke)

After defeating the Fire Gym, you once again enter the Wild Zone on the way to Hammerlocke. You find Sonia outside, who greets you and says she was able to learn from the mine workers about what kind of ores they were digging out to mimic the Power Spots. She tells you they were elemental stones, the same kind Pokemon use to evolve. She’s also headed to Hammerlocke, but this time she has stronger Pokemon to defend herself - she doesn’t want to have to depend on you every time, after all. She wants to see the Energy Plant up close.
As you approach the bridge leading north to Hammerlocke, you see Bede and Hop. They seem to just be finishing a battle, and Hop has beaten him. Bede is furious that his Pokemon could be so weak, and tells Hop it was pure luck. Hop retorts that he didn’t even need to use all the tricks his brother taught him to win, which only enrages Bede further, who runs off.
Hop then greets you, and says he’d love to show you his skills but his Pokemon were rather hurt from his fight with Bede, so he’s headed back into town. He tells you he’ll catch up with you in Hammerlocke for a rematch.

Chapter 3: Gyms 4-6

Scene: Hammerlocke

Chairman Rose and Oleana are there once again, speaking with Bede. You are again not let in on their conversation, but Rose hands Bede a Pokeball before they part. Rose then heads back towards the Gym and heads inside, as Macro Cosmos Energy Plant workers stand in front of the entryway.
Oleana sees you, and mentions you’ll have to challenge the other gyms first. She says the stadium is directly connected to the Energy Plant, which is under maintenance and causing some of the power issues; luckily, no challenger has the other seven badges yet, so it’s not holding up the challenge.
As you begin to head west, Leon and Sonia see you. Sonia says she’s had no luck making it into the Energy Plant yet, but thinks something is odd. She shows you her Power Spot Detector, which can find and measure energy around Power Spots, which she’s been using around all the known spots she’s been visiting, and mentions it flares up whenever Pokemon Dynamax nearby. She tells you it’s been going off ever since she got into town, even though the stadium is empty.
Leon says he’ll have a talk with Raihan, the Dragon gym leader, and his personal rival, to find out if anything is going on. He invites Sonia along, but tells you that you should continue your training, since this is where the challenge gets more intense.
If you explore the city and explore the vault, you can find additional scenes with Sonia examining the tapestries about the Darkest Day, one of which now shows a shadowy oversized Pokemon in the background. She wonders about the connection some more, and says she’ll be heading east to Circhester to check out the Hero’s Bath, one of a few tourism destinations built right near a Power Spot. If you try to follow her, you’ll be blocked by Team Yell, who say that even if Marnie seems to like you, they don’t trust you yet, and this route is their territory right now!

Scene: Route 6

The Yell grunts are still there, protecting the snake so it gets some sleep. Hop will catch up and get annoyed that they’re blocking the path, and ask you to join him in getting them out of the way. You can refuse to help, wanting to let the Pokemon sleep.
If you help, the battle goes as normal, they get out of the way, and when Opal appears, she says she respects your demonstration of strength. If you do not help, Hop beats them anyway, and mocks you for not wanting to show your strategies in front of him. Then Opal says that a strong challenger wouldn’t be afraid to demonstrate their strength, and that you better not be so meek when you challenge her.

Scene: Stow-on-Side

If you did not help Hop fight Team Yell, then as you walk into Stow-on-Side, he’ll appear and insist that you fight him since he never got to see you in battle. Beating him will leave him confused, as his tactics have worked on everyone else so far. He wonders what Leon does that makes it so much different.
Hop asks you if you’ll join him to look at Stow-on-Side’s famous mural. He discusses how it represents humans everywhere bonding with their Pokemon, and muses that he’s never felt that kind of connection, but wishes he could learn to. He cuts short his worries by discussing the gym leader with you, and tells you that he can’t wait to get strong enough to beat you fully.
The gyms go as normal. In terms of flavor text, Bea brings up honing your will to match your Pokemon, while Allister mentions bonding with the true spirit of your Pokemon so that you will be with them always.
As you leave the gym, an earthquake seems to occur, shaking the ground beneath you. Random NPCs look alarmed, and you hear rubble collapse from afar. It cuts to looking at the shattered mural, revealing the statues behind it. Sonia appears, saying she flew in as soon as she heard of an earthquake happening. As she’s looking at the dog statues, she sees a large gem behind them and wonders what it could be.
Just then, a Corviknight carrying Bede lands in front of you, and he hops off as he directs it to grab the gemstone and fly away. He speaks into a phone saying that a Max Quake was all it took to retrieve the hidden stone. Hanging up, he calls you too nosy for your own good, and declares it time to end your Gym Challenge here.
As you battle him, and he reaches his last Pokemon, he exclaims that its unbelievable he’d have to show off his newest tool so quickly. His last Pokemon will be something out-of-character for him, but with a cool Gigantimax. He slaps a small device onto his Dynamax Band, which immediately makes it glow. “With this beacon, I can pull Dynamax energy from so much further away!” He Gigantimaxes his last Pokemon; you are unable to Dynamax yours.
After defeating him, he’s stunned. Chairman Rose walks up the stairs behind you, looking rather mad. Several Macro Cosmos Energy Plant guards run up and restrain Bede. Rose tells Bede that he is brilliant, but is shocked at his reckless and dangerous use of his knowledge. Bede starts to respond “But you-” before the guards carry him off, and Rose apologizes to you, saying that he will of course be disqualified from the challenge and his Dynamax Band revoked. He’s rather impressed that you were able to beat a Dynamaxed Pokemon without one of your own, and says he’s keeping an eye on you as he leaves.
Sonia brings up the dogs, the tapestries, Darkest Day, and the hero story, and does her usual jam of discussing how they must all be connected.

Scene: Ballonlea

Entering the gym has you seeing Marnie leaving, just as in the original story. She says that Ballonlea may be her favorite town outside of her hometown, just because it’s so isolated from the industry building around the Energy Plant. She brings up being suspicious of Chairman Rose, and she thinks he just used the money the power plant makes to buy his way to the Chairman position.
The gym proceeds as normal.
The scene with Bede and Opal in Hammerlocke does not occur.

Scene: Hammerlocke - Part 2

As you proceed to the east, you meet Sonia in town. She mentions not finding anything helpful at the Hero’s Bath. As you’re talking, a loud explosion comes from the stadium. Sonia pulls the Power Spot Detector from her jacket, which immediately surges and burns out as she drops it in shock. Raihan runs by, saying that something must have gone wrong in the Energy Plant, but it was his stadium and thus his responsibility. He calls Leon and asks him to meet there, before running off. Sonia agrees you should leave it to them, but expresses concern.
Hop does not appear on Route 7. [GPC] Route 7 instead has a small river running through it that you are unable to cross. A Macro Cosmos Energy Plant worker approaches you and says that Chairman Rose sent word that you’d be coming this way, and to make sure you got a free upgrade to help you out. He grants you the Rotom Bike Water Upgrade a little early.

Scene: Circhester

You approach the gym to find Hop leaving it, gloating over his easy victory. He tells you to meet him at the local restaurant once you’ve won your match - or just watch him at the finals if you lose.
Flavorwise, Gordie is more focused on strength and disappointed at his loss, while Melony says you must warm your Pokemon’s hearts to beat her, and delighted in your win.
At the restaurant, you and Hop discuss how close you are to the championship, and Hop says he’ll want a rematch when you’re back in Hammerlocke for the final badge. Hop notices the tapestry, which is slightly different than the original, and now shows a prominent shining gem between the heroes. Hop brings up Sonia mentioning a gemstone to him when he passed through Hammerlocke, and wonders if she ate here.
Since you already have the water bike, you do not encounter Team Yell on the way out of town. Leaving early is perfectly fine, but you will still find Spikemuth blocked off with no way in.

Chapter 4: Divergence

Due to story changes, Spikemuth is necessitated to be closer to a real town. Thus, this entire section could be considered a [GPC]. This is also the section of the story that comes much further from the existing plot and pacing compared to the original story.

Scene: Spikemuth

As you approach Spikemuth with the Rock/Ice badge attained, Marnie shows up and says something must be wrong. Her brother is the gym leader and while her town can be a little strange, it’s never been locked off. She sneaks you in through a side alley as normal, but finds Macro Cosmos Energy Plant workers guarding each of the various entrances. Piers approaches and says that they’ve closed off the town, demanding he let them perform work on the Power Spot in Spikemuth, which he’s refused. Team Yell isn’t strong enough to kick them out though.
Marnie is disgusted, and asks you to team up with her to kick them out. You and Marnie explore the town and run through a series of double battles, defeating all the Macro Cosmos members until they leave. Once finished, Piers thanks you and says that they probably put up even more of a challenge than his normal Gym Trial, so you can challenge him directly whenever you’re ready. Marnie thanks you as well, and insists you challenge him first.
The arena is similar to the back alley street arena from the normal story, but a little larger, with more spectating area, although nothing compared to the gigantic stadiums. Piers explains that Spikemuth’s community has resisted the commercialization of the Gym Challenge, and wants to keep things focused on the bond between the Pokemon and their Trainers in the true spirit of the challenge. He also asks that you remove your Dynamax Band before fighting, as although there is a Power Spot in Spikemuth, they simply do not allow Dynamaxing here since they believe it pains the Pokemon.
In defeat, Piers congratulates you on being an excellent trainer in tune with their Pokemon. Marnie congratulates you on the way out as well, saying she can’t wait to meet you in the finals. However, your chat is interrupted by Sonia calling you, requesting you fly back to Hammerlocke as fast as you can because something is happening. The lights in Spikemuth dim out as another power loss occurs, and Marnie says she’ll come with.
With these changes, a random stranger does not drag you to Route 9, and Leon and Raihan do not appear and discuss Dynamaxed wild Pokemon you never see.

Scene: Hammerlock - Part 3

You arrive in Hammerlock to find it dark and dreary, the power completely out. The dragon gym tower is wreathed in red lightning. Sonia is outside the gym entrance, and tells you that Leon and Raihan have been inside for some time - and then suddenly an explosion happened and the power went out. Hop runs up as well, also having received a call from Sonia. You hear the roars of Pokemon Dynamaxing, and a random bystander on the street’s Pokemon begins glowing red ([GPC] there are many of these people-Pokemon pairs in the towns, we can move one within eyesight for convenience here.)
You, Hop, Marnie, and Sonia participate in a raid to take down the Dynamaxed Pokemon. Once taken care of, the bystander is a bit shaken, and Marnie says she will help maintain the peace out here and take care of any other Dynamaxed Pokemon. She and Sonia insist you and Hop head inside and figure out what’s going on.

Scene: Energy Plant

Once inside, you two dispatch of the guards in front of the lift and head inside. The Energy Plant is expanded, as you find Raihan and Leon battling Macro Cosmos members. They suggest you split up as they’re trying to find their way to the reactor core, but more members stop them at every turn. You and Hop go one direction with Raihan and Leon going the other, fighting your way through a series of singles (you and Hop each fight one alone) and double battles against members of increasing difficulty.
You dispatch a final set of guards and approach the entrance to the main reactor, just as Leon and Raihan do the same and meet up with you. All four head inside to find Chairman Rose working on a large device, housing the gem you first saw in Stow-on-Side. In Pokemon Villain tradition, when you rush in, he explains his actions. He endorsed Bede as he thought he was the trainer willing to do whatever it took to become the strongest, which is what he needed to defeat a Pokemon he didn’t even think Leon was capable of beating.
He’s been using the Gym Challenge to try and push trainers even harder to raise Pokemon strong enough to beat a Pokemon he thinks exists deep below Galar, and he thinks is responsible for the formation of Power Spots. Bede served his purpose though, having secured him the Dynamax Gem he stole from Stow-on-Side, which will create more power than ever to draw the unknown Pokemon in. However, Rose hasn’t found the right trainer yet, so he’ll just stop you on his own, by changing something on the device and pulling the energy into one of his own Pokemon (whichever one has the coolest Gigantimax).
You, Hop, Leon, and Raihan enter a raid against this Gigantimaxed Pokemon controlled by Rose, who has much higher stats than a normal Gigantimax Raid Pokemon.
Upon defeat, Rose is indignant that his work must be allowed to continue, but Raihan and Leon grab him and bring him out of the gym to be served justice. You disable the machine, and normal power is restored to the region.

Scene: Hammerlocke - Part 4

Raihan and Leon thank you and Hop for the help. Raihan and Leon joke about their rivalry, and Leon says he needs to head to Wyndon to help make sure everything is organized, since the Chairman is now imprisoned. Raihan invites you and Hop to fight him in the stadium whenever your ready - with all the power surges, his gym trial is a wreck, but you’ve already proven yourselves.
The gym fight goes as normal. After winning, outside the train station to Wyndon, Hop will request one more fight before the playoffs to gauge how far you’ve come. Upon defeat, he’ll talk about the bond he felt between Leon and his Pokemon while you fought in the Energy Plant, and wonder why he doesn’t have the same thing yet.

Chapter 5: The Finals

Scene: Wyndon

When you arrive in Wyndon, there are some simple cutscenes with Marnie and Piers congratulating you on making it, as well as hearing about your exploits in the Energy Plant. Hop will show up as well, telling you he’s trained hard in the Wild Zone for these finals, and you better not count him out yet.
None of the Macro Cosmos stuff happens anymore before you are allowed to begin the playoffs, since Rose has already been dealt with.
The playoffs proceed just as they do in the original story, with the exception that Bede does not interrupt the event to fight you.
When you reach the battle with Leon, he remarks on how much you care for your Pokemon. He says he saw that bond when you first picked your starter, and saw it grow even more as you fought in the Energy Plant. However, as you are set to fight, the power in the stadium goes out entirely. Surprised, as you have already dealt with Rose, Leon says it’s a good Pokemon trainers duty to help others above all with their Pokemon, and whistles for a Corviknight to pick him up. He tells you to follow him back to Hammerlocke to figure out what’s going on.

Scene: Hammerlocke - Part 5

You arrive in the city to see a large barrier surrounding the stadium. Leon tries to break it with his Charizard, but it has no effect. Hop and Sonia, as well as several of the other Gym Leaders, show up shortly afterwards. Hop mentions the barrier is the same color as the shining gem you saw in the basement of the plant, and wonders if someone else turned on the machine. He then says that he bets some truly strong Pokemon, like the ones you saw in the Slumbering Weald, could probably break through it.
Everything clicks for Sonia and she says it must be connected to the heroes, since according to her research they were buried deep in the Weald. You and Hop head back to check it out.

Scene: Slumbering Weald

Not much changes here, outside of Sonia not being present. You do not find the Pokemon but instead find the Rusted Sword and Rusted Shield, and figuring it’s at least something, grab them to take back to Hammerlocke.

Scene: Hammerlocke - Part 6

Bringing them back, Leon and Sonia seem very skeptical that the rusted items could accomplish much. As you raise the items towards the barrier, the legendary dogs appear and take each from you, transforming to their enhanced formes. With a combined Behemoth Blade and Behemoth Bash, they destroy the barrier, and look back to you to follow them inside.
Leon says these legendary creatures have clearly chosen you to fight alongside them, and he must respect that. He’ll stay back to make sure nothing else goes wrong outside. Hop mentions that he feels a real connection to his legendary, asking if that’s the kind of bond you feel to every Pokemon on your team.
Heading in, you make your way through the empty facility back to the reactor core. There, you find Oleana and Bede, with the Dynamax Gem machine running fully, pumping energy down a hole into the earth. Bede says it was no problem to escape the jail he was placed in, and once Oleana filled him in on Rose’s true intentions, he would not only finish the work, but prove he was the trainer strong enough to defeat whatever Pokemon created these Power Spots. You must defeat each of them in a back-to-back battle with Dynamaxing allowed. The legendary Z-dogs do not join this fight, instead standing fiercely by the machine.
As they’re defeated, the energy pumping down the hole explodes upwards as Eternatus rises from it, destroying the machine in the process. His roar is enough to blow Oleana and Bede away, but the Z-dogs leap back and protect you and Hop from it, as Eternatus grows to his Gigantimax form and you have essentially the same raid battle from the original story.
After the battle, Hop has a moment of true connection with his legendary, and tells you that he understands now why you defeated him in the finals. The legendary dogs then create a great fog and fade away, similar to the start of the game.
You head out and explain what happened to Sonia and Leon in a story wrap-up cutscene, before Leon says they’ll have to reschedule the finals for the next day.

Scene: Wyndon - Part 2

The finals play out basically as before, but with extended dialog from Leon about your growth to bond with the heroic Pokemon of legend. When you defeat him, he brings up that Hop always thought being strong was enough, but you understood that you had to love your Pokemon to succeed, making you a worthy Champion.

Chapter 6: Postgame

Scene: Slumbering Weald

After the credits, a teaser implies you should visit the Weald, just like the normal story. When you leave your house, Ball Guy runs up to you, congratulating you on winning the championship, and delivers his final ball gift, the Master Ball.
In the Weald, you meet up with Hop to return the Sword and Shield to where they belong. However, when you do, the legendary dogs reappear and stare down their respective characters. Hop says this is this Pokemon (whichever dog is “his” storywise) is the first Pokemon he’s felt that true sense of belonging with, and thinks they feel it too. You each battle your legendary and (hopefully) catch them.
Hop will thank you for being his rival and teaching him so much along the way, and challenge you to a final match with your new legendary Pokemon. After still being defeated, he will say he has much to learn, and looks forward to growing as a trainer alongside his legendary.
This is the end of the story. Sordward and Shielbert do not exist.
There are additional, yet optional scenes showing Sonia earning her Professorhood title as well as Marnie becoming the new Gym Leader.
[GPC] You can head to each gym for a rematch with each Gym Leader at much higher levels.
submitted by NovaX81 to pokemon [link] [comments]

The Most Impressive Planet: Radical Action

First Chapter Previous Chapter Series Link The Story So Far
Previously: Elias threatened Alex. Alex took her secret recording of the conversation to Barachiel to deliver to Kushiel and Azrael in the Black Room. A long time ago, Kushiel destroyed Otric’s life.

The Most Impressive Planet: Radical Action

 
>>Journal entry 189628
 
>>How do they do it? They have told me a hundred times, but it never makes any more sense. >>How do Kushiel and Azrael keep going? Every opportunity, every minimal opening, every forlorn hope they grab and make it theirs. >>They find out that the King of LIEREN has family and they don’t hesitate to use that to their advantage. Even now Kushiel is starting to insert himself into Valla’s family. >>When was the last time they were afraid? >>How can they look in the mirror and not be repulsed by what they see? >>Shaper is the same. She is always pushing me to continue, pushing me to try again. >>When was the last time she was ever angry at my failures? >>What would I do without her? Without them? >>They always know what to do. >>I hope there is other life out there. Around other stars. On other worlds. I hope that they find us before we all die out. >>So that maybe my life could have had some measurable impact beyond just postponing misery by a few years. >>I can’t keep this up. I can’t be Psychopomp forever. It’s eating away at me. >>If I can change the world, why can’t I change myself? >>Where does doubt hide in my head? The hate? Is it a gland? A series of synapse connections? >>Why can’t I figure out how to fix it? There has to be a chemical imbalance somewhere. Of course there has to be. >>I just want someone to tell me we did good. Anyone. >>Someone to tell me I’m on the right path. >>That everything will be worth it.
 
>> End journal.
Time until summit: >99999 hours, 59 minutes, 59 seconds
Hyacinths were Otric’s favourite flower by far. Their numerous blue and purple leaves stood out in the garden, an island in the sea of green. There were other plants that he cared for, but none captured his attention and received as much of his time like the small planter against the window filled with the hyacinths.
 
When he and his mom went about the daily routine of watering, pruning, and harvesting the various crops and plants in their garden, Otric always made a detour to that planter even if the hyacinths didn’t need any tending that day. He liked to imagine that some of the other people in the neighbouring habitat towers could see the cluster of flowers in the window and enjoyed them as much as he did. If it wasn’t for his love of the plant, his mom would have repurposed the planter a long time ago.
 
Hyacinths weren’t used in cooking, so they couldn’t sell them as a food, and their cone shape meant that the affluent couldn’t pin them to their clothes like they could the few other flowers they grew. Some people still bought a few hyacinths, because even a small status symbol was a status symbol. It didn’t matter that they couldn’t be used for anything, everyone wanted something that wasn’t grown in one of the Hague’s indoor farms.
 
‘Dinner!’ came a voice from the far side of the garden.
 
Snapping his attention away from the hyacinths, Otric gathered up his pruners, clippers, trowel, plant food, and the various other gardening supplies into a small pack he slung over his shoulder.
 
It was almost too heavy for the young child, but he managed. Otric had insisted on taking on more responsibilities, and his mother was more than willing to use it as an excuse to spend time with her son while she worked.
 
Threading his way through the rows of the garden, Otric noted that most of the employees had gone home already, leaving him alone with the plants in the greenhouse. Had so much time already passed? Otric glanced up through the glass roof, peering between the towering arcology stacks which hemmed them in on multiple sides. What he could see of the sky was getting dark, and a few of the automated grow lamps were flickering on.
 
Their house, as much as one could have a house in a world where space was worth more than the lives of people who lived in it, was a series of small garden shed-esque buildings along one side of the greenhouse. His mom had them built against one of the inner walls of the greenhouse so that they could leach some heat from the neighbouring unit. Dropping his bag outside their tool shed, Otric slipped through the curtain door into the largest of the sheds, which served as a kitchen, dining area, and general purpose living area.
 
All the available space was taken up by plants, some mundane, some exotic. A small cacti was flowering in a pot on the dining room table, thyme and oregano were growing in planters under the window, a trio of fly traps were waiting patiently for an unsuspecting insect... It went on and on, and in the middle of it all was Otric’s mother.
 
Ingrid Yenjoten looked young for her age, with her hair still retaining its natural blonde colour, and only the barest wrinkles around her eyes. Her voice had the strength and authority of someone many decades her junior, and she moved with the energy of someone in the prime of their life. A lifetime of healthy eating, exercise, and a lot of rejuvenate treatments, courtesy of Otric’s mysterious sister, had worked their magic.
 
‘How were the flowers?’ Ingird asked as she fried some pineapple on a small stove.
 
‘Good,’ Otric said with a shrug. Today was the day he was supposed to tend to all the flowering plants.
 
‘Just good?’ Ingrid asked with a raised eyebrow.
 
‘Very very good?’ Otric ventured, with a small smile that showed his missing tooth.
 
Ingrid laughed at her son’s innocent guess. ‘I’m sure they’re fantastic, dear,’ she said. ‘But do you know what else is fantastic?’
 
Otric furrowed his brow. Was this a trick question? His mom had a habit of springing small brain teasers on him, and he didn’t like getting them wrong. Not because Ingrid would be disappointed, but because he liked to show his mom how much he was learning in the garden.
 
‘Pineapple?’ he guessed, looking at the counter. It was a rare delicacy when they had pineapple, because they were always so popular with the rich customers.
 
Ingrid laughed again. ‘Yes, pineapple is fantastic! But I wasn’t thinking of food. Guess who is back in town?’
 
Otric’s eyes lit up. ‘Uncle Randal?’
 
‘Surprise!’ came a booming voice from other door as a large man jumped in. Uncle Randal’s blue eyes found Otric immediately and he picked the young boy up, spinning him around.
 
‘You’re back!’ Otric said, hugging Randal when he set him down.
 
‘Of course I’m back,’ the giant of a man said, giving Otric a hug in return. ‘I decided to take some time off work to be here for your birthday. I can’t believe you’re turning 11! It seems like only yesterday you were only up to my hip.’
 
‘I’m still short!’ Otric said, laughing at the simple joke.
 
‘Well, I don’t know if I can help you grow any taller, but do you know what I do have for you?’ Randal said, reaching inside the pocket of his black suit jacket. ‘An early birthday present.’
 
With a flourish, he produced a small bag of seeds and dropped them into Otric’s waiting hands.
 
‘Ooh, what are these?’ Otric said, looking at the unmarked bag. He saw a familiar look from his mother. ‘Thank you very, very much Uncle Randal.’
 
‘These are special seeds,’ Randal said, kneeling down next to Otric. ‘A brand new creation by one of my friends who lives near Europa. He calls them Sweet Lungs, because of the shape. They are supposed to be very pretty, the richest red you have ever seen, but you shouldn’t put them in teas even if you think they’d taste good. Don’t think I didn’t get you a gift too, my darling Ingrid.’
 
‘Is that near Saturn?’ Otric asked, trying to remember where the moon was located as Randal presented a green and gold bangle to his mother.
 
‘Close, Jupiter,’ Randal said, giving Ingrid a small kiss on the cheek.
 
‘One of these days I’d like to meet one of your many friends,’ Ingrid said with a small smile.
 
‘I’d like that too, but they are pretty private people,’ Randal said with a shrug. ‘Maybe together we can twist some arms and have a get together. I bring my friends, you bring your daughter, and everyone can have a nice big party.’
 
‘Oh, I don’t know if Valla would be able to make it,’ Ingrid said as she added the grilled pineapple to a few waiting plates. ‘She always says she is so busy.’
 
‘That’s fine, we can figure something out,’ Randal said, tying his long red hair into a ponytail so it wouldn’t get into the food. ‘If there’s one thing Randal Thor has learned over his long life, it’s to be very patient.’
 
Time until summit: 14 hours, 38 minutes, 22 seconds
It didn’t matter what time of the day it was, the small meeting point was too hot for a normal human. Not that Kushiel was a “normal” human, no matter what he looked like. A body was just a vessel for a mind, after all. Once it had been not quite temperate, but tolerable. Kushiel remembered those days from a dozen perspectives. Events were much easier to remember than people. They were cleaner, easier to have a definitive recollection of. People were murky and ever shifting, full of questions and uncertainty. Events were clear cut and set in stone. Even the terrible ones were welcome memories. All things considered, his life could have been much worse. In fact, it was quite good.
 
There were a few regrettable moments sprinkled in there. A war or two that was entirely his fault. Being hunted across the solar system, fleeing Earth, changing his appearance every month to avoid detection. A few crimes against humanity. Ruining a long lasting friendship over one too many of the former.
 
In retrospect, those moments were all so temporary. Immortality changed your perspective on life, and it made it trivial to sleep at night once you accept the fact that everything goes wrong eventually so if it wasn’t you then it would have been someone else. Nothing lasts forever.
 
In fact, it was for the best that he was the one to commit the crimes. If there was a Hell, then as soon as you are guaranteed entrance you might as well dive off the deep end. What was Hell going to do, torture you for a longer eternity? If there was no Hell then celestial karma meant nothing, so the least he could do was ensure that someone else’s conscious was clear.
 
After all, life moves along and so did he. Everything else was temporary. Like the heat. Perhaps after the business with the Council was finished, humanity could begin terraforming Earth to repair centuries of damage. It would be much easier if they didn’t need to worry about TSIG.
 
He lounged under a tree, shoulder length red hair tied up in a ponytail, fanning himself with an sensu fan from before Tokyo got burnt. It didn’t help, but it occupied his mind while he waited for TSIG to show up. With the summit happening so soon, Otric would undoubtedly be busy. If Zhou was willing to meet Adriel here, then odds were good he would have been willing to go to the summit as a representative from TSIG’s political arm. Holt was never going to leave his ivory tower, and from what they were able to piece together from Golog, she was cooped up in her lab at all times. TSIG would be paranoid about sabotage or Black Room interference, so Valla was probably supervising security or the first steps of someone new taking Otric’s position.
 
That left Angela Yong, Queen of the SUPREME branch of TSIG. A PhD in robotic prosthetics, another in energy systems, and a third in anti-gravity sciences. That many doctorates seemed a bit excessive, but Kushiel wasn’t one to judge. If you were to compile a list of the most accomplished researchers and engineers in the Sol system, Yong deserved a spot near the top. That is, if more than a handful of people knew she existed.
 
Meeting an assassin in the middle of the desert with little security was not her job. It should never be her job. But when the assassin in question was one of the three founders of the Black Room and claimed that they wanted a serious talk, it deserved a proportionate response. It was one of the few rules about this meeting point that both sides obeyed without question.
 
Kushiel was about to consider leaving when his ears picked up the telltale drone of a Diamondhead approaching. Manufactured by CSE Productions, their engines were quite efficient but had a notable sound signature. It was also armed with enough weapons to make short work of almost any other vehicle in the air. However, something sounded off.
 
The moment TSIG arrived, Kushiel could see why. The Diamondhead was flanked by a pair of Warpaths. The rules of this meeting point were specific about not initiating violence, but they said nothing about bringing a small army to back you up, just in case. It seems Angela Yong subscribed to the idea that overwhelming force was the better part of valour, which was great news.
 
Kushiel had a feeling that she would be a fantastic addition to the Black Room.
 
The two Warpaths took up hovering positions on opposite side of the valley, completing slow arcs as they traced their supervising trajectory around the meeting point. The Diamonhead turned 90 degrees so that Kushiel had a clear view of the massive Gatling gun pointing out the side hatch. From that opening, Angela Yong appeared.
 
She leapt from the flying ship, long white coat billowing behind her in the jetwash of the engines. Her fall slowed, becoming a gentle drift as she glided towards the stone table set in the centre of the valley. She smoothly transitioned from flying to walking, as though she hadn’t just jumped from a flying gunship two dozen meters in the air. Behind her, two soldiers leapt from the gunship, crashing into the ground in a billow of dust as they followed Yong’s paths. Kushiel recognized them as Rook DeWolfe and Knight Alvarez, from the attack on Krubera. The collection of drones floating around Alvarez was hard to forget.
 
Were they trying to get an emotional response out of him by reminding him of his failure? If so, they overestimated his emotional connection to the event.
 
With a wave of Yong’s hand, one of the chairs at the stone table slid backwards as if pulled by an invisible force and she took her seat at the meeting point. She stared expectantly at Kushiel who still had yet to get out from under the shade.
 
She was showing off. So Kushiel decided to show off in his own way. With deliberate slowness he folded up the sensu fan and tucked it away in his jacket pocket. He made sure to exaggerate his motions to show that he had no weapons under his suit jacket. Of course, one of the perks of being a founder of the Black Room was all the esoteric and experimental augments he had. Those were rather more difficult to spot.
 
No one would be able to tell from a glance that his skin was resistant to small calibre bullets, his bones were tougher than steel, or the fact that he was immune to all but a few diseases and biological weapons. A close inspection might notice the faint metallic lines that ran across his skin like silver veins in a few spots the makeup had missed. Black nail polish hid the fact that his fingernails were the same unnatural silver colour. The infinite energy of the Ether was quite literally at his ebnesium-laced fingertips.
 
‘You brought friends,’ Kushiel said as he sauntered up to the other chair. ‘Expecting trouble?’
 
‘Yes,’ Yong replied, her cold eyes watching his every move.
 
‘Always smart,’ Kushiel said with a smile. ‘Tell me, do you know why I called this meeting?’
 
‘The sooner we get this over with, the better.’ Yong remained neutral and impassive.
 
‘Fantastic. But first, privacy. This is strictly for us. As equals. Not for them,’ Kushiel gave the two knights a dismissive wave.
 
Yong frowned. ‘That is disagreeable.’
 
‘Let me assure you that if I wanted you dead, it wouldn’t matter how close they are,’ Kushiel said, leaning back in his chair. ‘Likewise, if you wanted me dead, it wouldn’t matter how far they were. Let’s treat each other with the respect we deserve.’
 
Yong pulled a small coin sized object from her coat and tossed it to DeWolfe, who caught it.
 
‘Happy now?’
 
‘Yes. Now, let me present you with a thought experiment,’ Kushiel said, pulling out the fan and placing it on the table and unfurling it to reveal the Black Room’s grey eye on a black background. ‘The Council will be having their long awaited summit today, which means that sometime very soon, either TSIG or the Black Room will be going the way of the dodo bird. Now, consider this idea: that would be a colossal waste of resources.’
 
‘The cost incurred by you disrupting our experiments, subverting our plans, and killing our operatives is large enough to justify a large one-off expenditure,’ Yong replied.
 
‘I wasn’t referring to the material cost, though that is sure to be significant regardless,’ Kushiel said, flipping the fan over to reveal the golden sword and shield of TSIG. ‘I was referring to knowledge.’
 
‘It will be unfortunate, but, with time, what was lost can be found,’ Yong said with a dismissive wave.
 
‘That’s not why they call it research,’ Kushiel said with a shake of his head, though in truth he wasn’t one to talk. His talents for research and development were lacking compared to Shaper, Psychopomp, and nearly other member of the Black Room. ‘Why not skip that boring little period and get right to the fun parts?’
 
‘The sooner the better,’ Yong said, with a look of impatience.
 
‘Alright,’ Kushiel said, snapping the fan shut. ‘The Black Room has more genetic engineering experience and technology that the rest of the galaxy combined. TSIG is far better than the Council in many aspects, but you are on the same road that they are already on. If you did nothing, they would eventually catch up. Meanwhile, we are uncharted territory. The aliens’ knowledge and research in biological engineering and genetic enhancement is centuries out of date compared to us. My bet is that the Council is going to decide that they would rather have the Black Room intact than TSIG. I’ll stake my future on it.’
 
Perhaps it was unfair to make such a claim when Kushiel already knew that Psychopomp had made a deal with the Council. Not that fairness mattered, in the grand scheme of things, but still. He was sure he had some standards, low as they were.
 
Yong raised an eyebrow. ‘A bold prediction, considering that your organization has less manpower, less resources, and fewer allies. But, for the sake of this argument, do go on.’
 
‘I have seen your work. Huge fan, by the way. Heh, fan. Because of the fan here? I make myself laugh,’ Kushiel said, unbuttoning his silk shirt to reveal a pendant dangling there. ‘Anyway, we pulled this off the man you sent to kill Remus and her allies way back at the beginning. An ingenious device, using anti-gravity to deflect bullets. It took us months to figure out how it worked and repair it. To be quite honest, I don’t know if anyone in our organization would have thought this up.’
 
Flattery can get you many places, but Yong didn’t even blink. Come to think of it, Kushiel hadn’t seen her blink once since she arrived.
 
‘Point is, when the Council sides with the Black Room, we don’t want to lose someone like you to the senseless violence,’ Kushiel said, buttoning his shirt up again. ‘Join us. It would be easy to fabricate a fake identity for you, and sneak you into our organization. We could even bring along DeWolfe or Alvarez if you wanted them. A few other of your team members you think are exemplary.’
 
Yong scoffed.
 
‘We could do it right here, right now,’ Kushiel said, leaning forward. ‘My skin is threaded with ebnesium, like the shell of a Zo. It acts as a Faraday cage, allowing-’
 
‘Allowing us to travel through the Ether directly, rather than merely breaking the light speed limit,’ Yong finished for him. ‘TSIG is well familiar with the theory and the technology to implement it on larger scales than a single human.’
 
‘A bear hug would be enough to protect you,’ Kushiel said, ignoring the implication of Yong’s words. ‘We could stand up, shake, and then before anyone reacts, I could take you a hundred miles away. Have you ever travelled through the Ether? It’s wild. The Black Room would be a good fit, Queen Yong. We have the resources to fund you, the people to support you, and the tech to keep you alive for as long as you want to live.’
 
‘What makes you think I’m one to turn traitor?’
 
‘My instincts.’ A poor answer, but if the gamble didn’t pay off, then there was no loss to him. ‘To be truthful, I have a difficulty getting a read on you. Zhou, Golog, Holt- all of you. What drives TSIG? What makes you tick?’
 
‘Why does a fish swim? Why does a bird fly?’ Yong replied, as though it were obvious. There was a moment of silence before Yong continued. ‘And what of you? You are competent and skilled. TSIG would treat you well should you turn.’
 
‘My motives run deeper than passion,’ Kushiel said.
 
‘The only person who truly hates you is Otric and he isn’t long for this world,’ Yong said. ‘With him gone, who would be against you?’
 
Kushiel laughed at the absurdity of the statement. ‘I assure you, Valla may keep it hidden better but she would never accept Azrael or I.’
 
‘Are you so sure of that?’ Yong said.
 
‘Sure as I can be of anything in my life,’ Kushiel said with a sad smile.
Time until summit: >99999 hours, 59 minutes, 59 seconds
‘Please, Ingrid, we should leave,’ Randal said, eyes darting everywhere. ‘The front is collapsing, we don’t know how much time-’
 
‘No!’ Ingrid shouted, pointing the knife at him. Otric cowered behind his mother, hands pressed over his ears to try and muffle the distant rumble of explosions. ‘Valla told me about you! She told me you’re dangerous!’
 
‘What are you talking about? You know me, Ingrid, you’ve known me for years. Don’t you trust me?’ Randal said, taking a slow step into the dining shed. ‘Your daughter has never even met me.’
 
Ingrid backed up, moving towards the opposite door, her hands shaking as she pointed the knife at him. The bangle Randal had once given her rattled against her watch. ‘She told me you’re working for the other side. That you’re the reason the Hague is being attacked right now.’
 
‘That’s absurd! How could I do something like this?’ Randal said, taking another step forward. He stood next to a pot filled with vibrant red Sweet Lungs, the gift he once gave Otric seeming so unwelcoming now that his mom feared the man who gave it.
 
‘Your friends in Europa,’ Ingrid said, glowering at him. ‘Otric, get out of here.’
 
‘No, kid! Wait!’ Randal said, taking another step forward just as Otric was about to run. ‘You believe me, don’t you? I’m not a bad guy, I’m just Uncle Randal. Just Uncle Randal.’
 
Otric didn’t know; he really didn’t. There had never been a moment when Randal had seemed even the least bit dangerous. He wasn’t around often, but when he was, he was always kind, quick with a joke, and always eager to listen to Otric talk about all the new things he learned. But Otric has never seen his mom so angry with a person before, and Otric trusted his mom.
 
There was another rattling boom, and the sound of glass shattering outside. The shockwave sent Ingrid stumbling and Randal saw his opportunity. Faster than Otric could blink, the gentle red head had surged across the room and was holding Ingrid by the wrists.
 
‘Run Otric!’ Ingrid shouted.
 
He was frozen, eyes wide as Randal twisted his mother’s arm until she dropped the knife. The earlier panic on his face was gone, replaced by nothing. No fear, no anger, no smile, just a blank stare as Ingrid cried in pain. Uncle Randal was hurting his mom. Uncle Randal was hurting his mom.
 
‘Listen to our mom,’ came a hard voice.
 
Otric spun around to see a metal statue towering in the door behind him, a sword in one hand and a gun in the other.
 
‘Just the person I wanted to see,’ Uncle Randal smiled, pulling Ingrid into a choke hold as he drew a gun from his jacket. ‘It’s a pleasure to finally meet face to face, Valla. You should really visit your family more often.’
 
‘Run, Otric,’ the statue repeated. ‘I’ll deal with Kushiel.’
 
The statue’s tone brooked no argument. He bolted out of the room, sprinting through the gardens. The ceiling of the greenhouse was shattered, glass crunching under his feet, and there were black armoured soldiers moving between the rows towards the garden shed. Smoke and fire billowed outside the massive windows, and titanic sections of the neighbouring towers were cracked open like eggs, revealing the floors within stacked atop each other like bands of stone.
 
One of the soliders shouted at him to stop, but Otric slipped under one of the planters, crawling through the dirt and mud that had fallen between the cracks over the years. No one could see him here, and there was no broken glass on the ground. Tears started to stream down his face, and Otric stopped for a moment to try and wipe them away, but all it accomplished was smearing his face with the dirt on his hands.
 
Where was he supposed to go? Was that really his sister? Why was Uncle Randal attacking them? None of it made sense and Otric just wanted to curl up in a ball and wait until his mom found him. She would know what to do. Mom always knew what to do.
 
Dragging himself across the ground, Otric could hear distant screams of pain and the sound of gunfire echoing in the direction of the kitchen. There was an explosion, and one of the black armoured soldiers fell to the ground next to the planter Otric was under, half his head gone. Blood mixed with the drained water, thickening the already drying mud.
 
Otric screamed and tried to back away, but a collection of watering tubes prevented him from going anywhere but forward. He hit his head on the hard metal casing of the planter and stars swam around his eyes.
 
With no knowledge of where was safe, Otric focused on the place he knew better than any other. The hyacinths had to be close. They had to be safe. They had to be. Where else but there?
 
Every breath felt like breathing in the flames of a furnace, and the acrid smell of smoke choked his lungs.
 
There was more explosions, each one a concussive wave that send moist dirt falling all over Otric. More glass shattered, and a scream fell away until it vanished into the background noise. Pounding footsteps surrounded him, an army surrounding him.
 
The planter ahead of Otric collapsed, cutting off his path. Dirt flowed out of it like water, almost choking him as he struggled to back away in the cramped space. He would have to leave safety to get the next planter.
 
‘There you are,’ Randal said, appearing on the ground next to Otric like a spectre. His red hair was matted with blood, and one eye was missing, but he sported the smile that Otric had seen a hundred times before.
 
‘Help! Mom! Help!’ Otric screamed as Randal grabbed his arm and dragged him out from under the planter.
 
The garden and the sheds were on fire, dozens of planters engulfed in white flames that hurt to look at. Plants that Otric had spent years of his young life working on were cinders, reduced to ashes in hateful moments. Bodies were scattered across the ground, and a few of them had the same red hair as Uncle Randal. Like his brothers and sisters. Did Randal have a family?
 
‘Drop the boy,’ the metal statue said, striding out of the smoke. Black armoured soldiers flanked her, their guns pointed at Randal. Pointed at Otric.
 
‘I’m sorry,’ Otric said, his eyes watering. ‘Please, Uncle Randal, I’m sorry.’ He didn’t know what he had done, but it had to have been something. Uncle Randal would never have done this. He had always been so friendly. Why was he hurting them? ‘Please.’
 
‘I told you already Valla, it’s simple,’ Randal said, holding Otric in front of him in a bear hug. ‘You for your brother and mother. They’ll be unharmed. You have my word.’
 
The statue lurched forward, pointing her sword at Randal. ‘Your word?’ she sneered.
 
‘I can do this forever, Valla,’ Randal said, tightening his grip on Otric. ‘Even if you make it through today, what about tomorrow? The day after that? Or after that? I just need to win once.’
 
‘What’s going on?’ Otric whimpered. ‘Why are you doing this Uncle?’
 
‘Everything is going to be fine, Otric!’ Ingrid said, stumbling out of the smoke to stand behind the statue. Her face was bloody, and caked with grime, with a rag wrapped around her mouth. She clung onto the statue for support, barely able to keep upright.
 
‘No it isn’t,’ Randal laughed. ‘Do you know what entropy is, kid? This was always going to happen. The moment you were born, we were all destined to meet. No one could have changed this. This was how it was always going to end.’
 
‘Nothing is going to end,’ the statue said, its cold voice cutting through the flames.
 
‘I warned you about those Sweet Lungs,’ Randal said, dangling a vial in his free hand. ‘Otric should be fine, but, my darling Ingrid, you’re on borrowed time unless Valla decides to make the right choice.’
 
Even though he didn’t know how, Otric understood the meaning behind Randal’s words. ‘Don’t hurt my mom!’ he shouted, pounding on Randal’s thick arms with small fists.
 
‘That’s up to your sister to decide,’ Randal said, backing away from Ingrid as the soldiers moved up. ‘Truth be told, I’m astonished your mom lasted as long as she did.’
 
‘Randal!’ Ingrid said, taking a step forward before collapsing heavily to the ground with a fit of wracking coughs. ‘Please, just let my kids go! You can have me instead!’
 
‘Oh shut up, Ingrid,’ Randal said as Ingrid struggled to pull herself to her feet.
 
‘Stay back,’ the statue said, offering a hand to lift up Otric’s mom. ‘I’ll deal with him.’
 
Everything happened in a blur. The second Ingrid’s arm touched the statue’s, the bangle that Randal had given her exploded. Otric didn’t even have a chance to begin screaming before Randal threw him at the statue, who was reeling from the detonation. The statue’s left hand was a mangled mess, but all Otric could focus on was his mom, who was clutching the ragged stump of her right arm in shock.
 
The statue dropped her sword to catch him, and they both went tumbling to the ground. Dirt and blood filled Otric’s mouth as his face hit the flagstones, and the sky became the garden became the sky again as he rolled across the floor.
 
The booming reports of gunfire deafened Otric’s ears, and he curled up in a ball as the he felt the violence resume. With every ringing boom he pulled himself tighter into a ball. Just hide, just hide and everything will be fine. It had to be fine.
 
Smoke filled his lungs.
 
It had to be fine. It hurt to move his arm.
 
It had to be fine. His mouth tasted like copper.
 
It had to be fine. His ears were ringing and he could barely hear.
 
It had to be fine. The air was getting hotter and hotter.
 
It had to be fine. The ground was slick with blood.
 
It had to be fine.
 
It had-
 
‘Otric,’ said a voice. There was a hand on his shoulder.
 
‘Mom,’ he whimpered.
 
‘My name is Valla.’ The voice sounded soft, and full of sadness. ‘I’m your sister.’
 
Otric uncurled, tears springing to his eyes as he looked up at the speaker. The statue had removed her helmet, and blonde hair, the same as his mom’s, the same as his, fell around her head.
 
‘Is mom okay?’ Otric said, barely able to speak.
 
Valla’s face twisted into a grimace that reminded Otric so much of the face his mom made when she found pests on their crops. Dread filled Otric’s heart, bubbling up and choking his mind.
 
‘Why did Uncle Randal do this?’ Otric said, tears streaming down his cheeks. ‘Was it something I did? I thought...’ He trailed off as sobs overpowered his voice.
 
‘He wasn’t your uncle. He never was. He was a bad man,’ Valla said, wiping away the tears on his face. ‘And he’ll never hurt you again. I promise. We’re going to go somewhere safe.’
 
With surprising tenderness, Valla picked Otric up, holding him like an infant. Her armour was hard and uncomfortable, but as Otric hugged her back he imagined the metal wrapping around him like a second skin, protecting him from all harm. He wished he could hide in a steel cocoon forever.
 
He wished to wrap himself in layer after layer of armour until nothing would hurt.
 
‘Valla.’ The gurgling voice was all but inaudible against the backdrop of conflict outside. If it wasn’t for his sister’s reaction, Otric would have missed it.
 
Behind them, Randal was lying on the ground, blood leaking out of his mouth to mix with the dirt. A few feet away lay the crumpled form of-
 
Otric immediately looked away, hoping against hope that he hadn’t just glimpsed his mother. His gaze wandered in the direction of the hyacinth planter, but it was hidden behind smoke and flames which licked the roof of the greenhouse.
 
‘You did well today,’ Randal said, still smiling. Otric never wanted to see that smile again. Never in a hundred years. ‘Next life I’ll be better.’
 
Valla turned away, leaving the red headed monster where he lay. She carried Otric out of the greenhouse without another word. Otric’s last glimpse of the home he knew for his entire life was fire and smoke eating up he ever cared for. In the centre of it all was a woman with a missing arm.
 
That was the day Otric learned of TSIG, and the Black Room.
 
That was the day Otric learned the name Kushiel.
 
That was the day Otric learned how to hate.
Time until summit: 13 hours, 59 minutes, 26 seconds
‘Azrael?’ Barachiel asked, knocking on the door. The redhead was in the middle of disassembling her guns, each piece meticulously laid out. Hunter 13 sat across from her, doing the same with his sniper rifle. Even in light, the alien’s heavy grey ballistics cloak seemed to be hazy and indistinct.
 
‘Barachiel,’ she replied. For once she wasn’t wearing her sunglasses, leaving her inhuman red eyes uncovered.
 
‘Message from the dead drop point. Remus is concerned for Alia’s safety, and, more importantly, we have a problem,’ Barachiel said, dropping a bundle of folders on one of the few clear places on the table. ‘Lillian Yansa and Elias Malik seem to know that Remus is cooperating with us. They know Remus used to be an agent. As such, they have Alia under constant watch. If you still intend on risking life and limb for Remus, you should be aware.’
 
Azrael frowned, clearing a space in front of her to look at the folders Barachiel brought. ‘I do so intend,’ she replied. ‘Anything else?’
 
‘I decided to pull Yansa and Elias’s files from the Filter backups, along with a few of their allies,’ Barachiel said, pointing out a few bundles of paper. ‘They are a few days out of date, but should be good enough. Beyond that, nothing much. I listened to Remus’s recording of the conversation and it sounds like generic threats from someone who found a tidbit of power and let it go to their head. Remus was insistent you hear the recording, but I don’t think it is anything serious. Feel free to ask Dumah for his opinion, he should be back already.’
 
‘They finally killed Dumah?’ Azrael asked, flipping through the reports. ‘Odd. He should’ve come see me by now, to discuss what we are going to do about the Filter.’
 
‘Could have been a bad resurrection and he’s still curled up in a ball somewhere,’ Barachiel shrugged. ‘It happened to Adriel when you and Kushiel killed him all those times, and it sounds like Dumah was tortured quite thoroughly.’
 
It happened to all of them one time or another. For Barachiel it had been when he had tried out what he thought was an inoculation against a bioweapon. Turns out it reacted differently to humans than it did to rats, and for the next three bodies it felt as though his skin was burning.
 
‘Could be,’ Azrael said, putting a hand to her ear. ‘Cassiel, can you check if Dumah resurrected recently?’ She turned her attention back to Barachiel. ‘You said you had a recording.’
 
‘Nothing much to hear, unless you want to get upset at the state of our opsec with the Filter in enemy hands,’ he said, passing her the memory card.
 
‘At the very least it will be something interesting to listen to when working,’ she said pulling out a pair of headsets, while putting her finger to her ear again. ‘What? Are you sure? Check the status of the Europa relay station. It could have been damaged, or Dumah’s upload may have gotten bounced to the wrong location and he’s in limbo while a clone is grown. Just get a memory stack trace.’
 
She slipped the chip into a small player and tapped the speed up button a few times before getting back to work. She didn’t explicitly dismiss him, and, having nothing else to do, Barachiel hovered awkwardly while Hunter 13 and Azrael continued their methodical work. Even in the bright light, Barachiel found it difficult to focus on the Oualan. What extra tech were those aliens slipping into the weave of their ballistics cloaks?
 
‘Barachiel,’ Azrael said, tearing the headsets off with wide eyes and a shaking voice. ‘In the storage closet there is an AED. Get it.’
 
‘What’s the issue?’ Barachiel asked, as he searched.
 
Azrael didn’t answer him as she unbuttoned her shirt, her hands uncharacteristically shaky. ‘Time is short and we don’t have the supplies I want, so we’re going to have bootleg this. Barachiel, the AED settings password is “LaLiPatriots”, one word, camel case. Increase the voltage from 3000 to 5000 and disable the safeties. There’s a paper in the box, give it to me. Don’t look at it too long. Hunter 13, you are going to be delivering the shock.’
 
‘I am unfamiliar with human medical devices,’ the Hunter said. ‘It is possible that I may misuse and it would be fatal.’
 
Sure enough, there was a page with a complicated pictogram drawn on it nestled between the paddles and a tube of gel. Messy writing under the pictogram read “force rebase to all branches” with a series other, smaller pictograms underneath.
 
‘Why would I hesitate?’ Barachiel said, angry at the implication.
Continued
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Corona Virus Update and NBA Final Numbers

Corona Virus Update and NBA Final Numbers

https://preview.redd.it/ei2wfmcnktq41.jpg?width=1073&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=53276e70d8496c70a0b85a001c1539afda0878be

Hello everyone!!
First I would like to say thank you for reading and I hope everyone is staying safe and doing their part to reduce the impact on our healthcare system by locking yourself in. It's nice to see most of society working together(well not right next to each other XD) to do their part in limiting the spread and impact on our society as a whole. It will be a great feeling at the end of the summer when everyone is healthy and the NFL is back! If you live in NJ, I hope you are spending your extra free time online, playing poker, preferably at WSOP, PARTY or Stars..... specifically at the games I play.
Hehe :D

Anyway, I haven't written anything about sports betting since I posted the last NBA article on I think March 11th. That was quite an ironic day for me with sports betting and this article. I had posted about missing a bit of time due to poker and March 11th, through the rest of the month, was going to be a time of re-dedication to the NBA season and tweaking my algo. That post did very well with the singles going 5-3 (+11.26u) before the night games were postponed.
I was half way to setting up my whiteboards and plastering my walls with plasterboard to saturate myself with NBA data and finish the season with the Lakers, on the highest of notes...Then...Gobert..then.. night games postponed...then ...season postponed... :(

Here's how that last post finished up:
Last Post Recap:
Singles (5-3, +11.26u): Fantastic boost here. The Philly odds boosts were a nice hit)
Parlay (0-3, -4u) Lost all three here, the MIA ml really hurt :X
BBDLS (0-1, -1u) Go big or go home!

Final Season Numbers:
Today's Singles (Overall Total:(8-13, +3.21U)
Basic Parlay (0-5, -5.5U):
BIG BOY DADDY LONG SHOT PARLAY (0-2, -2.1U)
Teaser (0-0, 0u)

Overall this NBA season we went: 8-20, -4.39u. This nets us our first losing ROI in the 4 seasons of doing this @ -15.68% I know that number looks bad, but we have to take into account that this is an extremely small sample size. 28 Bets is sometimes what we have bet in a single article in previous seasons and past data has shown that my Parlay and BBDLS bets are more long term plays.
All in all, it sucks to have my first -ROI but this season definitely has an asterisk next to it due to the small sample size so I can't be too critical of myself on this one.

In other news, looking back over my post history I realized I never summarized my NFL post season bets and final ROI on the NFL season. This is a shame, especially since my SuperBowl post ABSOLUTELY KILLED IT! I think I have been overwhelmed with the amount of poker I have been playing this year, leaving me a little distracted here.
So! Keep an eye out for a summary post of the NFL post season and total season numbers. It will be short and sweet and I may just include all the numbers from all the seasons just to have them all in one place.

I will be taking the full month of April to be playing all of the wonderful online tournament series that will be running in NJ in April. I want to thank everyone for following along and if you're curious to see how I make a living, show some love and let me know in the comments and maybe I'll finally take the time figure out how to get a Twitch stream running. :D

Stay healthy!
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submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

How to Win at Sports Betting

Want to understand the best information on how to win at sports betting? Just a single amount of time in the US leading professional sports history features a team had an excellent year old. Nobody is really flawless. The purpose is that losses will happen in sports betting. The most useful sports bettors on earth infrequently acquire more than 55 percent of their full time. Winning in sports gambling is not hard. Period. There’s a reason sports betting is this a profitable company that’s currently becoming popular in most locations. With that said, a few sports bettors do triumph and acquire plenty of dollars! It is from hopeless for a successful sports bettor. However, as clear, with no correct knowledge and techniques, it won’t happen. These fundamentals, in sequence, if grant the novice sports bettor an opportunity to develop into successful.
Keeping up a solid grasp on bankroll direction is readily in comparison to the real-life experience of purchasing a brand-new vehicle. When an individual would like to get a brand-new car, he needs to get in the dealership using a notion of just how far he wants to pay and how far he could pay off. On average, both of these are different amounts. However, the purpose is he wants to get into the dealership using a budget. Do you know what happens when he does not? Inevitably, he will go from this automobile having a half-smile on his head, because he’ll have a new vehicle for nearly double as far as he wanted to invest. It pays to have a budget in place.
The specific same is said for sports betting; bankroll direction is vital. To begin with, specify a spending budget. When a business budget is not put, it could on occasion be almost inevitable to pay more cash than could be afforded. Self-control is almost always a significant secret of sports betting, and establishing funding may be a lifesaver.
Together with establishing funding, actually managing that funding is essential. Evidently, falling half of their cover an elongated time period using a single underdog to mad a popular probably isn’t the smartest option. Can it cover off? Sure. But more times than not, this underdog will definitely lose, and also all of the amount of money budgeted to make use of will probably undoubtedly be lost with that. It’s a recognized belief with each bet, merely a small number of their allocated budget needs to really be wagered. Such a thing in 1 to 5% of their funding each bet is okay.
Placing an Excellent Betting Portfolio
Placing a good Sports Betting portfolio could be trying for players that are new. Quite often, inexperienced bettors find one particular match that they enjoy and also put much of this budgeted money about it. When just a single bet is in drama, fortune and other things can play a massive roll in the end result. But if five or even five distinct kinds of wagers come in drama (notably with various matches), the bettor is quite a bit more inclined to acquire true outcomes while in the long run.
Some reason new bettors may fight to set a diverse gaming portfolio is that it is not simple to achieve that. That isn’t always the situation. It all will take is dispersing the budgeted money from unique bets in distinct locations.
Some experts may provide certain proportions of funding which ought to really be wagered on different bet types. Every bet is only a bit different. Having said this, every bet involves something besides the bettor. Obviously, it could be smart to bet that a greater proportion of funding onto a superior profit/low hazard prospect. Obviously, it could be unwise to even bet that a sizable proportion of funding at a really low profit/high hazard prospect. Thus, some times more of a bettor’s funding is going to be spent on one area instead of a second. A second week, it may be reverse osmosis the alternative way.
No matter a bettor’s profile needs to contain a wholesome mixture of these stakes: contrary to the spread, money line, oveunder, futures, props, and also certainly will comprise parlays and teasers. Using a diverse portfolio of stakes, the bettor is a great deal more inclined for authentic, quality outcomes as opposed to changing everything to a bet.
Finding stakes with a fantastic possibility to acquire money is something different which can be rough for players. There really are a number of things to remember while trying to find and considering a bet.
Understand the value and return on investment
Have a look at additional articles on Betting Pros regarding the potential value and return on investment to get the complete comprehension of exactly what those 2 things are. On the web calculators and tools provide bettors using easy tools to make use of to provide help. A fast-online search, together with the input of a couple of amounts, is it requires. Evidently, a bettor wishes to own high numbers as you possibly can for the two of these amounts. Ranked EV and ROI on possible stakes might help new betters find potentially excellent investments.
Search for value selections, maybe not winners
That one could seem just a bit funny. But, consider this way. 1 bettor could acquire nine out often stakes, with precisely the exact same quantity of money added to each individual bet, and lose money. Still, another better could acquire one out often stakes, with precisely the exact same sum of money added to each individual bet again, and also win funds. Sports gambling is an all-around value. Though the very first bettor comes with a 90% success rate, everybody else would preferably be the 2nd bettor and acquire money. When a bettor knows EV and ROI, appreciate selections can more readily be seen.
Possess a Very Long memory
Possessing a brief memory is just one of those utter worst qualities a sports bettor could possess. The NFL always provides flawless examples; teams may smash it 1 week, simply to get defeated the following week. A very long memory helps players to see potential wagers at which odds-makers might have been only a touch too short while.
Bet at the Right time
In the early stages, chances are unchanged and fresh by any people's trends. Sports-books have a tendency to wish to maintain things as much as you can for themselves, even though, and significant money towards one side or the other may induce odds-makers to make alterations. Clearly this is sometimes grounds to bet early until the likelihood vary, however it may be rationale to bet overdue, too. When a bettor finds odds apparently skewing too much in 1 direction through the entire time in front of a match, this also can be considered a perfect chance to battle upon. Betting premature or catching opportunities are just two of those better days to bet.
Research Recommendations
Research is essential in sports gambling. That might seem obvious, in the current modern world, people desire results using as little effort as you possibly can. Sports gambling is simply like everything else on the planet. When your bettor works hard, he or she’s got a higher likelihood of succeeding. Sports gambling research may incorporate anything from looking into stats and watching matches, to calculating return on investment. To simplify all of it, break down the research into two distinct types: sports comprehension and amounts comprehension.
The particular “sport” side of playing sports gambling is most likely what many casual fans like. This may include things like watching games, researching numbers, observation player and team trends, etc. For sports bettors, this can be valuable to concentrate on a single game, since the time that it requires to achieve so research for numerous sports might be overwhelming. For an effective sports bettor, have a fantastic knowledge base of this game. Put at the time that it will take to think about yourself as an “expert” at this match. It’s going to probably pay off.
The amounts side of this search for sports gambling may be more stressful. Assessing different game outlines, calculating EV and ROI, and finding amazing values might be much more important compared to sports knowledge, yet. Actually, locating the most effective odds from various sportsbooks are also the difference between losing and winning a bet. Find an Excellent value, locate the best chances for this bet, and wager off.
submitted by ofagames to u/ofagames [link] [comments]

Sports Betting Online - The Things You Must Keep In Mind When Playing

If you're just How to calculate a parlay?, there are several things that you simply must essentially confine mind. Your knowledge will function your tool in ensuring that some time , effort and money spent thereon are going to be productive.
Implement Good Money Management
It applies not just in sports betting, but in all pastimes you perform that involves wagering money. Money management will help in guarding your bankroll and in keeping you away from bankruptcy. Betting all your money is never a smart decision and it will also not help you in being a successful long term player. Spend only what is okay for you to lose in case it is not your lucky day to play.
Look And Shop Around
Odds offered in online sports betting differ from one sports book to another. Therefore, shopping around will be very helpful in finding which one offers the best odds and the best deals.
Pay Attention To Underdogs
Not because a player or a team is the crowd's favorite, it already means that it will always win the game. Underdogs, too, can have the edge over the favorites depending on how the game is played. Do not underestimate the capability of underdogs.
Know The Bets You Can Make
There are many sorts of bets which will be made when wagering money in online sports betting. Knowing what bets you'll make is additionally another important knowledge that you simply got to obtain. Below are a number of the bets utilized in sports betting.
Single or Straight Bet is the most common and the simplest bet that you can make. This means that you will bet on who will win at a particular game.
Point Spread allows betting on the winner from selections made equal through appropriate allocations to the losing team. Essentially, you will wager on certain points by which the winning team will defeat the underdog.
The Moneyline sets up the probabilities for every team; yet is inversely related to what could have been the point spread.
Total Bet refers to the sum of the points earned by the two teams, inclusive of the scores they earned during overtimes.
Over or Under bet also involves the sum of the scores made by the two teams. However, in wagering, you'll back whether the sum is over or under the entire amount indicated by the chances maker.
Accumulator Or Parlay is a multiple bet. You can make numerous selections at a time on quite two games with the intention of pressing the winnings of the primary to the succeeding wins. To win the parlay, you need to win each selection. For tie, cancelled or postponed games, the parlay will be automatically lowered by just one selection. The double parlay can turn into a straight kind of bet; the triple parlay can become a double. If you win a parlay; it can definitely yield enormous money.
The teaser bet is similar to a parlay; except that you have an alternative to add/subtract points from one or several spread bets.
submitted by tignomimli to u/tignomimli [link] [comments]

Personal review from a gacha semi-noob (Warning: Spoilers and FGO comparisons)

I've been playing this game for a few months now (since towards the end of February), making this the second gacha game that has managed to hold my attention for more than a couple of days. I think I've reached a point where I'm comfortable writing down my thoughts on E7, and so I'll be writing this as a sort of informal, subjective review. FGO having been my first gacha game, and the one I have the most experience with, a lot of this is going to involve directly comparing the two, hence the title. If you hate that game you're perfectly free to, but if you're only going to be replying to this to say "FGO is trash" and/or some variation thereof...well let's face it, if that's all you have to say me telling you to save your energy ain't gonna stop you, so just consider yourselves preemptively fed and ignored past this point. Moving on then, this is gonna be a long one.
Edit: I'll be adding little edits to each section as people point out stuff I missed.
The Story
Let's start with the least clear cut of my thoughts. I enjoyed the story; the characters were likable, Ras, Arky, and Meru have decent chemistry, the plot flows well enough without pointlessly piddling about, leaving that to the optional sidequests.
Unfortunately, it's also, for the most part, rather uninteresting and unimaginative. The setting consists of a bunch of tropes that have been done a thousand times (classic kingdom, merchant desert town, elf forest, etc) without any unique twists to them. World building is practically non-existent. The sidequests, which could've been used to keep expand on the setting without interrupting Ras' journey, are instead wasted on a bunch of pointless little character plots that tell us almost nothing. A lot of them feel like a bunch of teasers for future content, which is all well and good except I don't think those are quite as important as telling us more about the world we're actually in.
And the main story itself is pretty basic. Ras' fairly unique origin is hardly brought up, aside from constantly pointing out how he's not really human, which really just kinda justifies him having all the personality of a baked potato and about half the flavor. He's one doomed hometown away from changing his title from 'Heir of the Covenant' to 'The Chosen One', and really, would anything about the story change? The other unique aspect to the story is the world getting reset every time he fails and Diche’s power weakening as it goes on. All this ends up being used for is to explain why a couple of characters turned traitor and artificially raise the stakes. Other than that, it’s just a straightforward ‘chosen one saves the world with his pet and waifu while collecting allies along the way’. We get pretty much no exploration of most of the characters we meet either. The heirs, plus Mercedes, are the only ones that get their little character arcs, and they were exactly stellar. All in all, as I said, I did enjoy it. It was fun and entertaining and had it’s epic moments, and I did at least grow attached to Meru, which let me sympathize with Ras’ later quest to restore her. But it’s not really something I’ll be thinking about for a long time after I finished it, and I think that’s a shame.
Another problem is that a lot of the characters are just complete unknowns. Many of them are only known from the little sidequests, and those can be pretty hit-or-miss in terms of introducing anyone. I mean, could anyone tell me who Ken is? That’s not a rhetorical question, I still have no idea who this guy is. I pulled him when rolling for Charles and barely use him, cause I have no real interest in using someone if I know nothing about their character.
All that said, comparing it to this point in its lifetime, the writing of FGO’s early chapters ranged from just decent to absolute dumptser fire, and the only reason I stuck with it was the promise of significant improvements in the future. Not that another game having the same flaw is much of a justification, but gacha games have ongoing stories, so we can always hope for better. I feel like perhaps E7’s biggest failing was on focusing on too grand a scale for its release story. Something a bit more personal, with less, more developed characters, would’ve served it better. And I know the writers can do that, as they’ve managed it in a couple of the side stories. As a personal point, I also wish there was some sort of in story reason as to why the characters are joining us, and some more personal interactions with them. Stuff like FGO’s bond lines and interludes, or GBF’s Fate Episodes. Right now, once you pull a unit it feels like there’s no real reward for using them a lot. It would also help alleviate the ‘I have no idea who this person is’ problem I mentioned before.
TL;DR Decently enjoyable, could be a lot better. Needs to do a better job of characterization. Early enough that there’s plenty of hope for improvement.
The Sidestories/Events
One hell of a mixed bag here. I started playing during the ‘So the Roses May Bloom’ event and it left a fantastic first impression. I felt like this game took a lot less time to learn something FGO took ages to; not ever story node needs some random battle. It was interesting, well written, and above all exactly what I feel a story in a gacha event should be; something that makes me love and want the characters regardless of how good or bad they are gameplay wise. To date I still want Bellona really badly thanks to that event. After that we had Charles’ side story, which I also really liked. It too expanded on the political goings-on of Ezara, while doing a great job at properly expanding on Charles and making me want to roll him. Sure, it was significantly smaller, but I figured it was just on account of being a relatively minor event meant to introduce one character. Unfortunately, that’s where the good impressions stopped. Cermia, Krau, and Haste’s (Haste’s was a little better than the former too, but not much) side stories where just little adventures that only gave us some surface level characterization about those characters. And they all followed the same general progression. Nevermind having story nodes without battles, apparently the standard is having plenty of random combat nodes without any story or purpose whatsoever. They’re not even meant for farming, because the farming node is always the final one anyways. I had hope the GG collab, being a relatively major event, would have more effort put into it. But ultimately it was just an excuse plot to have a few GG characters dropped into Orbis to save the day and maybe set up some future plot with Kayron.
On a more hopeful note, the lousy side stories don’t change the fact that the good ones exist. As I mentioned, it’s still relatively (and hopefully) early in the game’s lifespan. The character side stories feel like they’re longer versions of the trial quests FGO uses when it introduces a new character without a proper event or story chapter, but the Roses event felt miles beyond any of the early events, and still above most of the later ones until the recent CCC collab. Maybe in the future the great ones can outnumber the lousy ones, and can have some more interesting mechanics than just reaching and farming the hell out of the final node.
TL;DR There’s been one amazing one, some great ones, and some shit ones. Same gimmick on all of them is boring. Jury’s out on whether they’ll keep getting better or worse.
Gameplay
This is the shining star of this game. The units have unique and varied kits, and building different teams is really fun. I’m of the opinion that people often underestimate the strategic depth you can get in some of the harder fights in FGO, but at the end of the day it’s still mostly a matter of pairing a DPS with the best supports you can and adjusting for whatever gimmicks the fight involves. On the other hand, taking into account the potential builds, speed and CR manipulation, a variety of buffs and debuffs, it all makes combat super fun. That aside, the idea of hunting specific boss monsters is great in theory, and I’d kill for FGO to have a series of always-available, increasingly difficult challenge battles like the abyss. The labyrinths could be better, they’re ultimately just a series of corridors where you fight the same enemies over and over again until the bosses. But I do like the concept, and the morale system makes it so you have an added layer to consider when building your team. Personally, I think they should at least take advantage of how simplistic the labyrinth designs are to introduce new ones in fairly short periods. With different combinations of enemies and bosses to make you really have to constantly consider your teams each time. Unfortunately, talking about using a variety of teams does bring me to the downside.
The problematic issue comes when you start getting a good variety of units. How many of you have nat 5s that you haven’t touched due to lacking gear? It seems to be pretty common advice for new players to focus on just a core team for most of the early and mid game, until you can auto Wyvern 10/11 and possible Golem hunts so as to more easily get gear for new units. I was fully prepared to follow that advice...until I rolled Lidica and realized I didn’t want to not use her or give up on Silk. And then I rolled Charles but didn’t want to stop using Ceci. You see where this is going? And so I ended up spreading my gear too thinly, and while I might have progressed faster if I had just focused, I can’t help the feeling that I would’ve gotten frustrated and bored if I did. The best part about this game is, in my opinion, all the potential team combinations you can make. Which you can’t really play around with for most of the game. Even in endgame, you end up potentially sacrificing many ‘just decent’ pieces of gear because your stat rolls might all end up on the one flat stat it had. Or worse, you have to get rid of it because you maxed it and most of your rolls did, in fact, turn out shit.
The endgame grind, getting the absolute best gear for arena or the higher abyss levels or whatever, isn’t that big of a problem. But I think there needs to be more mid-game content, and more ways to quickly get new characters to a decently usable state. Thinking back to the event we just had in FGO, I was lucky to summon the featured servant pretty early on. She’s by no means maxed, I certainly won’t be using her in any challenge quests any time soon. But I was able to get her into a useful state pretty much as soon as I got her and really enjoyed using her during the event. And it made me really look forward to when I do max her out, even if it’ll probably take months to get all the materials. On the other hand, I got lucky with Baiken, went all the way to 121 for Dizzy, and got all copies of Sol, and they’ll all be collecting dust for ages while most of the event was spent just setting my strongest team on auto-battle.
Expanding on my idea of introducing new labyrinths, I think that could be a way to fix the problem. Introduce a new, limited time labyrinth every one or two weeks, with a reward of at least one decent piece of gear with guaranteed stats. That way people can feel like they’ve made some genuine, if small, bit of progress every week no matter how badly RNGesus shits on them that week. And the surplus of gear would encourage people to try out more units, and by extension make rolling the gacha more attractive.
TL;DR Fantastic gameplay with some great ideas, held back by how hard it is to try out a variety of characters.
The Gacha
Ok so, aside from the aforementioned problem of new units collecting dust for a while, this one is going to be a lot more personal. I like gambling, I’m not ashamed of that. I was the kid on the playground who’d bet pocket change and toys on UNO games, who learned several varieties of poker before high school, and the only time I’ve ever enjoyed watching a sport besides baseball is when I’ve got some money on one of the teams. Naturally, whaling in a gacha game isn’t exactly a big jump for me.
Except that rolling in E7 isn’t any fun. You know the likely results too soon. If the game let’s you skip the whole animation, it’s a nat 3 unit or artifact. If the book turns gold, it’s a nat 4. When one of the twins appears (and so far as I can tell, they always appear, even when the book doesn’t start out as gold), it’s a nat 5. And you can always tell if it’s a unit or artifact depending on the twin. And with limited units, you know exactly what the unit is going to be, too. I know a lot of people like the fact that limiteds are guaranteed, I did say this one would be a lot more personal, but I don’t see the point when we already have a decent pity system in place for them. Would a little more uncertainty really be that bad? Make the twins only rarely show up, don’t immediately reveal which unit you roll when you do, make me wait and suck my breath in when I see a gold book. Let me skip all the animations if I keep tapping so that I have a reason not to do so. I know this isn’t as important to all, or even most of you. But I know there must be at least a couple of people that would enjoy a little more excitement with each roll of the dice.
P.S. Edit: Don't you hate it when you carefully write out a long reddit post on a separate document, and end up forgetting something anyways? There's a slight issue with the imprints as well. While it's all well and good that the game doesn't make you feel too underpowered for not rolling dupes, it also makes rolling dupes more painful. Having just 1 or 2 dupes of a unit is practically useless, which makes pulling dupes extra painful. In FGO, a single dupe can give you a pretty major bump in power for that unit's noble phantasm (basically their ultimate skill), so even when you a servant you already had, you generally think 'well, at least X will be stronger now.'
TL;DR This game’s gacha doesn’t scratch my gambling itch
Monetization
Here’s the part I find the most disturbing about this game. Gacha monetization is all well and good. It’s, at its heart, gambling. And while some people can’t handle that, I believe I’ve made it clear that I enjoy it. But this game seem to try and muddy the waters around the value of what you’re spending vs what you’re getting. There’s no direct way to buy only regular bookmarks. The regular price, that is to say the price available no matter how much you spend, is $100 for the skystone equivalent of 40 summons. That makes the monthly summon packs seem more valuable, even though you only get 4 more summons. Then there’s moonlight summons, which take 120 regular summons to get. Going by the rates, this is more than you’d need on average per nat 5 covenant unit, and there’s plenty of trash you can roll there to make it definitely not worth it. But it does make it seem more generous when a pack includes a few galaxy bookmarks, it artificially raises the value of a pack. Going further, there’s the Mystic summons. Conveniently, these require ten times the bookmarks of each of the previous summons, for a featured unit with lower odds than your standard rate up. Oh, but doesn’t a pack with 700 bookmarks seem like so much? And for a much higher chance to roll a specific ML unit than you’d get with the regular ML summon. Nevermind that, at 50 bookmarks per summon, if you buy all the packs that $570 for only 72 pulls. For $500 you could get 220 regular summons, are mystic summons really that much more valuable? Sure, the packs include skystones, but that’s just there to make them seem fairer. They know damn well nobody is buying mystic packs for the skystones. FGO gets you 55 summons for $80, with no ridiculous separate seperate category of servants that you need a special currency for and no bullshit limited packs to look nice compared to the even more ridiculous regular prices. And that’s not getting into leif packs, and mola packs, and the awful gear packs and blatant mystic power creep. Every part of this game’s cash shop is designed to devalue your money by making horrible options seem less horrible by comparison. Other gachas use standard casino practices; colorful lights, excitement, etc; to make the gacha more pleasing and encourage you to spend money that way. This game is basically going full scam artist.
Edit: This game does give a fair amount more premium resources than FGO, which I did forget to mention. Back when I started playing, I even considered this to more than even out the terrible pack prices and make the game more generous than FGO. However, my opinion slowly changed as I saw the problems inherent in the whole ML and Mystic summon system. All in all, it definitely gives you more free rolls if you're F2P, but the manipulative nature of the shop is still a major problem for those of us who would be willing to spend more money.
TL:DR The game’s a giant psychological trap that makes you devalue your own cash.
Looking just at the game, I have a lot of hope for the future. But looking at the business practices, I can’t help but dread it, and a little side of me hopes it fails for them.
submitted by Draguss to EpicSeven [link] [comments]

AMA with TRONbet Team Today - If you missed it - HERE IT IS !

AMA With TRONBET SOON
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Is the new Sportbet book an in-house game or a partner Dapp?
TRONBET SOON:
Sports betting is both, a part is in-house game and a part is from a partner. We will be working with one of the most renowned companies in this space to bring the best Sportsbook experience possible.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
SOON talked earlier about something really ‘BIG’. Does this refer to being listed on any exchange for example Binance?
TRONBET SOON:
For those who were with us from the beginning, I have always gone by the old saying ‘GO BIG OR GO HOME’ I'm not able to give you guys much news about what "going big" is at the moment. But what I can say is that I have never been so excited. Let's hope we can really make it BIG with the upcoming plans.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Will there be a new token for sports betting?
TRONBET SOON:
We have yet to decide on that, but as of right now I do not have intentions for it having a new token, as mining with sports betting will be quite different if it were to happen. We are looking at a few options including it just being part of ANTE.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Will streaming matches require vpn? Do you guys have all the rights to stream it?
TRONBET SOON:
I'm not able to answer the VPN question, Sorry. We are working with a partner to provide the streaming. The reason why I must add streaming is that there is a possibility of it bringing more users to the platform. But an immediate impact we will see is the time online on TRONbet will be increased significantly. This works well with our goal for providing ad spots for advertisers, and in-turn creating another revenue stream for ANTE
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
It was the plan to launch the RAKE for Poker today? Is this right, and how much percent will be the rake?
TRONBET SOON:
Rake was supposed to start today. But at the last minute we had to make a change to ensure that it helps to foster our BIG plans in the coming months. Therefore, we will be delaying it for a bit. Everything is ready at the push of a button. And the RAKE will only be 5%.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
What is the current Poker volume per day or week?
TRONBET SOON:
I need to look at the stats later - I don't have them right here in front of me. But the first 4 days when poker was released - there was over 20 million TRX in action
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
The plan of TRONbet is also launching non-casino games. Do you have any info on the development of non-casino games?
TRONBET SOON:
We have been working on it all along, I might be able to show some teasers later.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
How long do you expect the mining of ANTE will be possible, and already plans for after that?
TRONBET SOON:
Well I think the great Alexey has a very good website - if you haven't seen it, please check it out antescan.live It gives you all the information about the dividends, ante price etc. and an estimate as to when mining will be over. To answer your second question, the big plans coming up will more or less prepare everyone for this
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Do u have any plans to have binary options part on the TRONbet platform?
TRONBET SOON:
Something similar to binary options we did have. I think most of you heard of HXRO. We made a prototype of it but decided to hold off on releasing it
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Can you reveal any of the timeline for the upcoming big plans?
TRONBET SOON:
I can't give you an exact timeline, because with big plans there will always be unintentional circumstances. But the goal is Augustus / September.
Ivan TRONbet Admin: Are there plans to launch USDT Gambling on TRONbet?
TRONBET SOON:
Are we referring to OMNI or TRON-USDT?
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
TRON-USDT
TRONBET SOON:
We can launch it at any moment actually. But right now the volume is too low to launch it. We are already prepared and will release it when the right time comes
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Will there be LIVE support for the TRONbet platform on a later date?
TRONBET SOON:
We will have live support. I must apologize for the support over the past month or two. As we are going through some transition, and it's our first partner dapp, support has been backlogged. Please accept my sincerest apologies as I know a lot of you have been waiting very patiently.
We are working on expanding the support to better help current players and for new players to feel at home.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
How are you going to monetize MMORPG games? Will it be the same model so all benefit for the ANTE holders?
TRONBET SOON:
We are working on a whole new business model for games. As most of you who play games know that there has never been anything in the game space that has wealth redistribution at its core. Our goal is to have games where you can enjoy and wealth is distributed according to your actions in the game. For example, time online, monsters killed, PvP won etc.
Right now we have yet to decide on how it will work, whether it will be a combination of these things or what not. But when the time is right, I will definitely discuss with all of you for some feedback before we release it to the masses.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Are there any upcoming plans for LIVE
TRONBET SOON:
Yes, our plans for LIVE is as follows:
  1. We are working on providing free spins - the issue here is that it's too easy to create a new wallet and abuse the system - so we are finding a work around for that - this will help with marketing.
  2. We will be optimizing our slot selections and the goal is to have roughly 1000 slots by the end of the year.
  3. We will have daily events that will be on a fixed schedule. For example today is blackjack event, tmr is baccarat, day after is roulette - with slot events on going throughout the week.
  4. Alexey made an amazing UI for the live platform that we will be updating soon as well.
📷
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Are you going to have other ways to buy TRON faster on TRONbet? It now really takes long because most people need to use Binance to convert it.
TRONBET SOON:
I always have plans for this. The easy way will be to go through something like Changelly - but that also requires KYC. I have 2 thoughts here.
  1. The whole crypto/blockchain industry needs to grow together to make it easier to purchase trx.
  2. If we do this - there are some regulations and compliance issues that we have to overcome first.
So in the short-short term i don't think we can do this - but once we believe the platform is really ready for the masses then we will add this option for sure.
Ivan TRONbet Admin:
Any plans for lottery?
TRONBET SOON:
We were just discussing about lottery the other day - yes there are plans for this. but right now the main focus is completing the whole poker platform, completing the live platform, launching sportsbook, and..... the BIG plans coming up : )
Ivan TRONbet Admin: Can we have a clue on who will be the partner for sports betting?
TRONBET SOON:
When it's released - you will know. Ivan TRONbet Admin: If you're looking into games and MMORPG, are you considering supporting something else than only tokens on TRON mainnet? I'm thinking of something like ENJ, which is already monetizing games with item ownership and such
TRONBET SOON:
I think item ownership is just scratching the surface. Btw, ENJ is a great product. I think it's impossible at the current stage for a game (an actual game) to be fully on chain. We have been working with an idea of support many different cryptocurrencies, and depending which crypto you use or choose, that will be your "nation" or "clan" - so we have all out wars between different crypto supporters.
submitted by crika1 to Tronix [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)
https://preview.redd.it/6z3pm7zaa3v31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b4ba60258e70d1ea5457bcd2111b890f81fa60
Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u)
Parlay: 0-2 (-2u)
BBDLS: none
Teasers: none
Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games!

Early Games (1pm)

New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11))

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air.

L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries:
LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season.
CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints.
Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league.
In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions.
Note: Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years

Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: "
The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs.
Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu.

Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week)
Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P

NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report
For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:
  • Nigel Bradham (ankle, illness)
  • WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen)
  • OL Tim Jernigan (foot)
  • OL Jason Peters (knee)
  • RB Darren Sproles (quad)
  • CB Avonte Maddox (concussion)
The Bills have a list of questionables, but everyone seems to be a go.
Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here.

Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson.

Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable.
The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move.

Afternoon Games

Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout.

Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog.

Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4qlJE4DZsc

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air.

Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)
  • NYG +6.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYG ml (1u to win 2.5u)
  • Golden Tate 75+ Rec Yards (2u to win 2.3u)
  • Saquon 75+ Rush Yards (1u to win 1u)
  • Saquon 105.5+ Rush and Rec Yards (0u to win 3u)
  • Corey Davis 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • A.J. Brown 2.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.3u)
  • Phillip Lindsey 53.5 Rush Yards Over (0u to win 1u)
  • Phillip Lindsey to Score TD (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Chargers ml (1u to win 1.63u)
  • Chargers +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • Eckler 5.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Eckler 45.5 Rec Yards Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Hooper 58.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • NYJ +7 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYJ ml (1u to win 2.7u)
  • Gardener Minshew 239.5 Pass yards Under (0u to win 1u)
  • New England -10.05 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Kenny stills 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Aaron Jones 64.5 Rush Yards Over(0u to win 1u)
  • Aaron Jones 13.5 Rush Attempts (0u to win 2u)
  • Jamal Williams 21.5 Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)
  • Titans ml, Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml (1u to win 1.86u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Bills ml (1u to win 2u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Den +5.5 (1u to win 2.2u)
  • Jets +7, LAC +3.5, NYG +3.5, CAR +4.5, NE -8.5 (2.5u to win 72.2u) This has "parlay insurance" A promo on DK wherein if 4 out of 5 legs hit, I get a refund on my bet.
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5 (0u to win 117.7u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-6 (-5.19u)
  • Ten ml, NYG ml, DEN ml, LAC ml, NYJ +7, Buf ml, NO ml, Sea ml, Car +4.5, NE ml, GB ml, Mia ml (0u to win 5438.7u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5, SEA ml, Buf ml, Ten ml, Car +5.5 (0u to win 231.1u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-2 (-1u)
  • I put this in at the Ocean Casino, I will post in the comments if by some miracle all the 1 and 4 pm games hit. (0.5u to win 10000u)
Teasers: 5-11 (-11.18u)
  • I am putting in a teaser card at the Ocean when I head over there before the games today. I will post picks in the comments after I see the lines and place the bet.
Futures
  • NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
Notes for bets: So this week I drove to PA (I live in South Jersey) and I made new accounts on some websites in PA. Because of this I now have 45u in Free Bets that need to be used in the next 30 days. I will probably sprinkle them into my singles and take a 10u shot here or there on a parlay.

Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!
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Sports Betting 101: What is a Round Robin Parlay? - YouTube NFL Teaser Betting Explained - YouTube Is There Any Value in Betting 6-Point NFL Teasers? Sports Betting 101: How to Bet NFL Football Teasers ... Explaining NFL Teaser Bets - Sports Betting Basics and How-To Guides

Although a little more advanced than a normal moneyline or spread bet, NFL Teaser Betting is fairly popular at sportsbooks during the NFL season. Teaser bets account for over 15% of sportsbooks handles for NFL betting, and is continuously becoming more popular. Definition of a Teaser in Terms of Sports Betting. access_timePosted on September 10, 2020 September 10, 2020 by Liam. In the realm of sports betting a mystery permits you to include focuses your sides and either include or take away from the absolute focuses. They are extremely mainstream wagers in Las Vegas sports books and in the web based ... These days it seems every sport betting forum on the net is buzzing about “Wong Teasers” and “Teaser Betting Strategy”. I’ll be honest, as someone who’s made a steady profit each year since 1999 betting teasers, I wasn’t thrilled when “teaser strategy” became the betting forum topic. A teaser is another type of wager available to bet on sports. A Teaser is not a straight bet, but is more similar to a parlay, but comes with much different odds and odds of winning. Often under-utilized, the teaser can be a valued weapon in a bettor’s arsenal if they know how to use them correctly. Teaser Betting Definition, Tips & Advantages Sports betting just continues to be more and more prevalent, and more and more individuals are doing it. The problem for many is - they want to get involved with sports betting, but are not sure what they are doing, or how to do it.

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Sports Betting 101: What is a Round Robin Parlay? - YouTube

In this video I explain what NFL teaser betting is. I recommend watching the video, but here is a quick explanation of teaser betting. Basically with a tease... Sports Betting 101 and Betting Tips: Direct from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas host Kelly Stewart talks with sports betting expert Teddy Covers, to l... Teasers are a form of a parlay bet, with elements that are in your favor and others favor the sportsbooks. How to Bet NFL Football Teasers is the latest episode of our “Sports Betting 101 (Sports Betting Explained - Sports Betting How To) Series for the recreation... Winning sports betting picks, tips and strategies along with money management advice and a proven handicapping system are what we specialize in at ProfessionalGambler.org. We are easy to contact ...

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