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General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
USC Dornsife 8-30 National 54 39
YouGov 8-29 National 47 41
Morning Consult 8-29 National 50 44
Morning Consult 8-29 National 52 42
USC Dornsife 8-29 National 52 40
Emerson College 8-28 Massachusetts 69 30
Trafalgar Group 8-28 Michigan 45 46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-28 National 48 38
Franklin & Marshall College 8-27 Pennsylvania 49 42
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-26 National 47 38
Ipsos 8-26 National 44 37
Benenson Strategy Group 8-26 National 50 39
Rasmussen Reports 8-26 National 46 45
YouGov 8-26 National 50 41
Roanoke College 8-26 Virginia 53 39
Ipsos 8-26 National 47 40
Change Research 8-26 Wisconsin 49 44
Change Research 8-26 Arizona 49 47
Change Research 8-26 Michigan 50 44
Change Research 8-26 Florida 49 46
Change Research 8-26 National 51 43
Change Research 8-26 North Carolina 48 47
Change Research 8-26 Pennsylvania 49 46
Trafalgar Group 8-25 Wisconsin 45 46
Public Policy Polling 8-25 Delaware 58 37
Public Policy Polling 8-25 New York 63 32
Public Policy Polling 8-25 Florida 48 44
Morning Consult 8-24 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 42
Morning Consult 8-24 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 42
Léger 8-24 National 49 40
Morning Consult 8-24 National 52 42
Morning Consult 8-24 North Carolina 49 46
Public Policy Polling 8-24 Texas 48 47
Trafalgar Group 8-24 Louisiana 37 54
YouGov 8-24 National 50 39
TargetSmart 8-24 Ohio 47 46
YouGov 8-23 National 52 42
Morning Consult 8-22 National 52 43
Morning Consult 8-22 National 51 43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-22 National 49 39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Pennsylvania 48 41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Florida 49 41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 North Carolina 44 46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Michigan 50 38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Wisconsin 49 39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-21 Arizona 47 38
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-21 National 46 38
Civiqs 8-21 Wisconsin 51 45
Civiqs 8-21 Pennsylvania 51 44
Civiqs 8-21 Michigan 49 46
Civiqs 8-21 Ohio 47 47
DKC Analytics 8-21 New Jersey 52 33
Saint Anselm College 8-20 New Hampshire 51 43
Muhlenberg College 8-20 Pennsylvania 49 45
Global Strategy Group 8-20 Texas 47 45
Echelon Insights 8-20 National 51 38
Echelon Insights 8-20 National 53 39
Data for Progress 8-20 National 50 41
Morning Consult 8-20 National 47 36
Morning Consult 8-20 National 49 39
Trafalgar Group 8-19 Minnesota 46 46
Ipsos 8-19 National 48 40
Ipsos 8-19 National 45 36
ALG Research 8-19 Louisiana 43 50
Rasmussen Reports 8-19 National 48 44
YouGov 8-19 National 50 40
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-18 National 45 39
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Wisconsin 47 47
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Florida 49 49
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Pennsylvania 50 46
OnMessage Inc. 8-18 Arizona 48 51
GQR Research (GQRR) 8-18 Michigan 52 43
Léger 8-17 National 51 35
Morning Consult 8-17 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 43
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-17 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-17 Wisconsin 49 43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-17 National 48 40
Landmark Communications 8-17 Georgia 44 47
YouGov 8-17 National 49 38
YouGov 8-17 National 50 41
YouGov 8-17 Texas 40 47
ABC News 8-17 National 54 44
ABC News 8-17 National 53 41
ABC News 8-17 National 53 41
SSRS 8-16 National 50 46
YouGov 8-16 National 52 42
East Carolina University 8-16 North Carolina 46 46
NBC News 8-16 National 50 41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by _mr0 to politics [link] [comments]

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
Quinnipiac University 9-3 Florida 48 45
Quinnipiac University 9-3 Pennsylvania 52 44
Monmouth University 9-3 North Carolina 48 46
Monmouth University 9-3 North Carolina 47 45
Monmouth University 9-3 North Carolina 48 46
Rasmussen Reports 9-3 Pennsylvania 47 48
Harper Polling 9-3 Minnesota 48 45
USC Dornsife 9-3 National 50 42
USC Dornsife 9-3 National 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 53 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 40
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 40
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 46
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 40
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 46
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Fox News 9-2 Wisconsin 49 41
Fox News 9-2 North Carolina 49 45
Fox News 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Fox News 9-2 North Carolina 50 46
Fox News 9-2 Arizona 49 40
Fox News 9-2 Arizona 49 39
Ipsos 9-2 National 43 38
SSRS 9-2 National 51 43
Harris Insights & Analytics 9-2 National 46 40
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 National 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 44
Morning Consult 9-2 National 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 43
Quinnipiac University 9-2 National 52 42
Qriously 9-2 National 46 41
Opinium 9-2 Florida 50 43
Opinium 9-2 Wisconsin 53 39
IBD 9-2 National 49 41
YouGov 9-2 National 51 40
Rasmussen Reports 9-2 National 48 45
Monmouth University 9-2 Pennsylvania 49 46
Monmouth University 9-2 Pennsylvania 49 45
Monmouth University 9-2 Pennsylvania 48 47
Suffolk University 9-2 National 46 41
Ipsos 9-2 National 47 40
USC Dornsife 9-2 National 51 42
USC Dornsife 9-2 National 51 41
Opinium 9-2 National 53 39
Suffolk University 9-2 National 49 43
Selzer & Co. 9-2 National 49 41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 9-1 National 49 40
Landmark Communications 9-1 Georgia 40 47
East Carolina University 9-1 North Carolina 46 48
Public Policy Polling 9-1 Michigan 48 44
Expedition Strategies 9-1 Montana 44 48
University of Nevada, Las Vegas 9-1 Nevada 44 38
Morning Consult 9-1 National 52 43
Morning Consult 9-1 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-1 Texas 47 48
Morning Consult 9-1 Florida 49 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Pennsylvania 49 45
Morning Consult 9-1 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-1 North Carolina 49 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Ohio 45 50
Morning Consult 9-1 Minnesota 50 43
Morning Consult 9-1 Florida 50 45
Morning Consult 9-1 Georgia 49 46
Morning Consult 9-1 Michigan 50 44
Morning Consult 9-1 Georgia 46 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Colorado 51 41
Morning Consult 9-1 Wisconsin 52 43
Morning Consult 9-1 Michigan 52 42
Morning Consult 9-1 Arizona 52 42
Morning Consult 9-1 Colorado 51 41
Morning Consult 9-1 Texas 46 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Minnesota 50 42
Morning Consult 9-1 Ohio 45 49
Morning Consult 9-1 North Carolina 49 46
Morning Consult 9-1 Pennsylvania 50 44
Morning Consult 9-1 Arizona 45 47
USC Dornsife 9-1 National 51 41
USC Dornsife 9-1 National 51 41
Léger 9-1 National 49 42
AtlasIntel 9-1 National 49 46
Emerson College 8-31 National 51 48
RMG Research 8-31 National 48 44
Global Strategy Group 8-31 Pennsylvania 53 43
Global Strategy Group 8-31 Pennsylvania 50 42
Public Policy Polling 8-31 Georgia 47 46
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-31 National 47 38
GQR Research (GQRR) 8-31 Pennsylvania 52 43
Trafalgar Group 8-31 Missouri 41 51
USC Dornsife 8-31 National 53 40
USC Dornsife 8-31 National 52 40
John Zogby Strategies 8-30 National 45 42
John Zogby Strategies 8-30 National 48 42
USC Dornsife 8-30 National 54 39
USC Dornsife 8-30 National 53 39

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by TheUnknownStitcher to politics [link] [comments]

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 16, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
This is likely to be one of the last clear snapshots of polling until at least mid-September. Historically speaking, the party conventions impart a statistically significant 'bump' in candidates' poll numbers. This convention bounce averages around 5 points for candidates (though some candidates have far surpassed this number), but the trend of high bounces has seen a decline in recent elections. With increased coverage of each party during their respective conventions (DNC: August 17-20, RNC: August 24-27), and this year's conventions taking place in a mostly-remote setting, it is hard to predict how large or any impact on the polls will be.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
NBC News 8-16 National 50 41
SurveyUSA 8-15 Connecticut 52 32
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 8-14 California 61 25
Data for Progress 8-14 National 51 41
Data for Progress 8-14 National 52 39
YouGov 8-14 Massachusetts 61 28
Global Strategy Group 8-14 National 52 42
Marist College 8-14 National 53 42
Fox News 8-13 National 49 42
Léger 8-13 National 46 --
Léger 8-13 National 47 39
Pew Research Center 8-13 National 53 45
Morning Consult 8-13 National 51 42
Morning Consult 8-13 National 50 43
Morning Consult 8-13 National 50 43
Harper Polling 8-13 North Carolina 45 44
Morning Consult 8-13 National 51 43
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 8-13 Mississippi 43 53
SurveyUSA 8-13 California 56 28
Rasmussen Reports 8-13 Wisconsin 55 42
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-12 National 44 40
Ipsos 8-12 National 47 38
Ipsos 8-12 National 43 37
Ipsos 8-12 National 56 43
Ipsos 8-12 National 58 42
SurveyUSA 8-12 Kansas 41 48
YouGov Blue 8-12 National 51 45
Rasmussen Reports 8-12 National 49 43
Critical Insights 8-12 Maine 45 38
YouGov 8-12 National 49 39
Morning Consult 8-12 National 49 40
Change Research 8-12 National 50 44
Change Research 8-12 Wisconsin 47 43
Change Research 8-12 North Carolina 47 48
Change Research 8-12 Arizona 45 44
Change Research 8-12 Florida 50 44
Change Research 8-12 Michigan 48 43
Change Research 8-12 Pennsylvania 48 44
MassINC Polling Group 8-12 Massachusetts 63 27
Emerson College 8-11 Pennsylvania 53 46
Emerson College 8-11 North Carolina 49 50
Emerson College 8-11 Arizona 53 46
Critical Insights 8-11 Maine 44 36
Critical Insights 8-11 Maine CD-2 39 38
Critical Insights 8-11 Maine CD-1 49 33
Marquette University Law School 8-11 Wisconsin 50 45
Marquette University Law School 8-11 Wisconsin 50 46
Monmouth University 8-11 National 52 39
Monmouth University 8-11 National 51 41
Emerson College 8-11 Minnesota 51 49
SurveyUSA 8-11 Georgia 46 44
Public Policy Polling 8-10 North Carolina 49 46
Rasmussen Reports 8-10 North Carolina 47 48
HIT Strategies 8-10 North Carolina 47 37
HIT Strategies 8-10 Georgia 44 40
Trafalgar Group 8-10 Arizona 44 46
RMG Research 8-10 National 45 37
RMG Research 8-10 Maine 50 39
Georgetown University (Battleground) 8-10 National 53 39
OH Predictive Insights 8-10 Arizona 49 45
Strategies 360 8-10 Nebraska CD-1 46 48
YouGov 8-10 Wisconsin 49 43
YouGov 8-10 Michigan 47 43
YouGov 8-10 Pennsylvania 50 41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by TheUnknownStitcher to politics [link] [comments]

Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin Bosses SL1 Tier List - Who is Objectively Worst? [Very Long Post with Naughty Language]

Many moons have there been since this accursed, low-level wanderer sat by the OneBro bonfire and spun a yarn about the objective baddery of Dark Souls bosses, and now he has returned.
So following my somewhat successful (I think...Relatively) post ranking DS1 bosses by objective badness here is the follow up. All bosses, from DS2:SotFS, ranked, objectively, by objective badness as rated by the Board of Official Objective Baddery (BOOB), in ascending order, 1 being least objectively bad and eightmillionandtwelve being most objectively bad. *
So put on your reading glasses, strap in, relax and prepare for a long list because mathematicians are still unsure as to whether to classify the number of bosses in Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin as an infinity.
\Note: For clarity it should be specified early that there is little objective about any of this, it's a bit. Go with the bit.*
1. Dragonrider – He usually throws himself off the ledge in embarrassment at the fact that you can slay him with about ten taps of a rotting hardware store hammer. He’s also built like Brock Lesnar’s fatter, more muscular uncle, and wearing heavy armour, making you wonder about the enormous strength of the dragons he used to ride.
2. Old Iron King – He can’t navigate doorways. You can avoid all but one attack by using the best shield in the game – ‘The Threshold’. Given that he’s supposed to be a Great Lord on par with DS1s Gwyn he’s a massive disappointment and easy as piss. That hole in the ground on the back wall of the arena probably accounts for more deaths.
3. The Last Giant – Then who and/or what the fuck is Yhorm? Or does ‘Time is convoluted’ just mean you can ret-con bollocks? Either way he beats Iron King because you can’t just stand under a lintel and not get hit. He also pulls him arm off to beat you with it and that’s pretty metal, but he does die from you tickling his feet, so possibly not so much.
4. Skeleton Lords – Do you remember The Catacombs-Tomb of Giants from DS1? It’s that - the boss fight, which weirdly makes it easier. A bunch of skeletons come at you and you grind them to bonedust with a mace whilst running in circles.
5. Prowling Magus and Congregation – Do you remember that gank in DS1 on the way to the Gargoyles? It’s that – the boss fight! Scholar is absolutely chock full of standard enemy ganks that are all harder than this, or the previous entry.
6. Covetous Demon – Ever wanted to fight Jabba the Hutt’s sperm in a windmill that is apparently milling depleted uranium into a toxic poison powder? Who hasn’t, right!? Well now’s your chance and he’s about as agile as you expect. His main attacks are being fat and fucking stupid, the second one is more effective.
7. Flexile Sentry – The boss that looks cooler than it is effective. Carrying four amazing weapons and somehow finding no way to make up for the fact that its weird conjoined middle is there for an attacking.
8. Demon of Song – Froggy’d be lower if not for the fact than he can hit quite hard, especially at SL1. Otherwise, Damon of Snog is a roll and a few stabs away from being trivial. His strong love of face-hiding turtleneck sweaters is also a saving grace.
9. The Pursuer – He’s ‘Baby’s First Training Fight’, let’s be honest. Probably the first of the non-trivial bosses on this list but also at the bottom because even if you don’t take the route of parry-ballista-ballista, he’s just parry-smash-roll-hit-roll-hit-parry-smash. If you had trouble with him on your first regular playthrough, an SL1 of this guy will make you ashamed of your past self!
10. Royal Rat Vanguard – The last of the non-troubling ganks, but it’s still a shit-ton of rats. That’s what this fight is. It’s a room full of rats. Kill some rats and a special rat with a hairstyle comes out and that rat has more HP than the other rats, presumably because of his cool hair, and gets a red bar. You can tear through them all with a rapier and chomp on some gems if you find yourself in trouble because they don’t do a lot of damage.
11. Executioner’s Conjoined Horse – The chariot is not a boss, I refuse to acknowledge it as such. There are some skeletons and there’s a horse, that’s the boss. That said, it can and will hurt you if you’re not careful. Bow-cheese doesn’t even make this trivial because it takes ages, but it’s still relatively simple.
12. Dragonriders – No I said “…riders”! It’s plural! Second verse very similar to the first but with an echo that carries a bow and arrow. That can make this fight tricky until you realise Mr. Bow and Arrow is wearing eggshell armour, cracks with a light tap, and once you’ve taken one out, the rest is as easy as beating a Dragonrider. So far three of them have been spotted, no dragons with them. What the hell are they riding? That’s like meeting up with Lewis Hamilton in the post-fossil fuel future and calling him ‘Cardriver’.
13. Ruin Sentinels – This lower-mid pack gets tough. I put the ruin sentinels here because they’re not bad, but they do have some tricky range and jumps. Add in the fact that they are a bit of a gank, and they can prove troublesome. They get shredded by the mace, though, and if you can get some lightning lube on it they’re stripped of HP quick.
14. Mytha, the Baneful Queen – Poison mistress and head-carrying Medusa rip-off, this is a boss you can be forgiven for summoning for because Jester Thomas is a straight-up SuperBro. Even if you don’t summon, though, the poison moat is more annoying than she is. With few, if any, non-telegraphed attacks the most annoying of which is her crazy-range spear thrust. You’ll take her out in no-time, even at SL1.
15. Old Dragonslayer – If you try to take him on when you can first reach him he falls about here on the list. Go back with a further upgraded mace and you’ll grind his meat faster than Maneater Mildred with a hankering for Ornstein Pie. It’s fake Ornstein, with less oomph and less impressive moves.
16. Scorpioness Najka – Is it Naj-ka, is it Nay-ka or is it Na-ka? Who knows!? All I know is attack while her stingers are underground, except when the rest of her is. She gets a few points of objective baddery for soul spears, the range of her thrust, and definitely that rangey tail whip. They will all hurt at SL1. Of the arachnid waifus she’s no Quelaag.
17. The Rotten – Another disappointing Great Lord, but at least he’s not stumped by a door. He’s basically Mildred, Nito and Quelag rolled up and smoked. This lava-surrounded, butcher knife wielding amalgam of dead junk is so easy he is often bonfire asceticked (I’m verbing it. That and the verb ‘to verb’ are getting verbed) to get early access to Drangleic Castle. Beat him four times and you’ve got the souls to proceed.
18. Belfry Gargoyles – It’s the Belfry Gargoyles from DS1, only more of them. Just like how Dark Souls II is basically Dark Souls but more of them. This is a real pain in the perineum. The gargoyles go down relatively quickly, but a tricky moveset and the fact that there can be 4 of them out at once means you can, and will, get swamped.
19. Smelter Demon – If this were based on personal experience he’d be in the single digits. My first ever DS2 run Smelter was a nightmare, so I had a feeling of dread when I came back for him at SL1. Only when I got there it wasn’t a snorting, orange-glowing, bull-headed demon wielding a frightening sword. It was a small ginger tabby kitten with tickle-scratchy claws. That said - heavy weapon, awkward moveset and an obnoxious AoE effect on his body. Definitely in the realm of bullshit.
20. Giant Lord – It is tough to know where to put this one. He can be as easy as tickle his tootsies until he falls. Every now and then, though, you’ll have a hard time. He is one of those DS2 bosses for whom the run up is more frustrating than he is. Smelty above is just the same.
21. The Duke’s Dear Freja – What happens when you have a spider for a pet and feed it growth hormones and magical pebbles? Freja. At SL1, being accidentally in the way of its leg moving can kill you. At the same time, it’s so pattern based that the most annoying aspect of the fight becomes managing the smaller spiders when you’d rather be two handing your weapon instead of carrying a torch.
22. Aldia, Scholar of the First Sin – He’s a fire tree. Since when were trees scholars? They’re made of wood, how do they cope being permanently on fire? What is the first sin? Is it lust? So many questions and yet, no answers. Why? Because as far as big challenges at the end of the main story go, he isn’t one. Basically just don’t walk into his fire and you’re fine.
23. Guardian Dragon – 22 to 25 is a quadrilogy that, for me, are interchangeable and I place them in the order I do based upon my own experience. Guardian Dragon is exactly the same guy you have to beat to get to Old Dragonslayer just as an actual boss. The annoying fire-breaths stop this being a trivial fight but to me the least objectively bad of this group.
24. Velstadt, the Royal Aegis – He carries a giant metal acorn on a stick with a bell in it. That scares the hell out of me, and it should because he has a couple of annoying swings that can hit you in weird places. That said, he also spends a decent amount of time doing stuff you can just walk around, while stabbing him. It seems inefficient.
25. The Lost Sinner – Dark room, fast moves and a distinct lack of ADP boosting gear before doing this fight make it a real tough point. Anyone used to fighting her earlier will have a distinct advantage but otherwise she is a challenge. Rumour has it she spends all her time in darkness so you can’t see how hot she is, rawr!
26. Looking Glass Knight – Absolutely not the worst of this quadrilogy by any subjective measure but objectively it’s a minor gank and a pain in the dick. Any time there are multiple targets it increases chaos and decreases predictability, thus making it more objectively bad for the SL1 player. That’s what happens here. I, subjectively, would put Guardian Dragon at 25. Objectively, though, Guardian Dragon doesn’t randomly summon a potential human player halfway through the boss fight just to fuck with you.
27. Vendrick – I suppose he can fall somewhere between “Objectively as hard as cellular respiration” and “I’d rather masturbate with rusty nails!” depending on your Giant Souls but his moveset is sluggish and predictable and he’s deliberately intended to be a grim spectre of a potential final boss, so he’s not so bullshit unless you get caught on the tip of that 320 degree swing.
28. Elana, the Squalid Queen – I’ll level with you, this might be here because of subjective reasons but I am not going back to re-do this part just to find it if I’m gud, flukey or plain lucky. Basically I didn’t find Pooshandra all that tough or bullshit, especially if you don’t get a Velshidt summon. It took me around a handful of tries and I was expecting more from a DLC boss.
29. Nashandra’s Curse Orbs – Nashandra herself is an utter disappointment as a final boss. To make up for her shortcomings as a challenging fight the developers decided they should surround her in a circle of orbs that can curse you. Curse in DS2 works by just being damage. They’re take-care-ofable but they caused me a decent amount of trouble.
30. Sir Alonne – One of my criteria for objective baddery is enjoyability. This should put Sir Alonne lower down this list but for one thing. He has a sword thrust that turns the middle of his blade into a vacuum cleaner that sucks you onto it even if you’re thousands of miles away. That is objectively bad. Alonne is an excellent fight, a fantastic tussle but that one little thing ruins it.
31. Fume Knight – Very similar to Sir Alonne. In my experience a very satisfying fight, a two-way tussle where you have to learn when is safe and when is not safe to stab. Honestly, stick by his side, learn your roll timing and you can pretty much stab away! Definitely high up the objective baddery for his magic swords that hit you with the air trail behind them as if you just got run over by a monster truck, though.
32. Ancient Dragon – Objectively bad because it’s like fighting a brick wall that sometimes drops a brick down on you that knocks you out. It is the easiest method for the hardest fight in the game and a true test of patience. Tickle his toes and he’ll (eventually, sometime next century) fall.
33. Sinh the Schleepy Dragon – He’s so sweet. He got a little sick, so he took a nap and then he’s grouchy when you wake him up. Not too tanky to seem like a chore at SL1, but has a few juggernaut-hits and sometimes he decides to rack up the frequent flier miles rather than fight.
34. Blue Smelter Demon – Same as the orange one except for two things, magic passive AoE and delayed hits. Nowhere near as bad as I remembered from my levelled run on the SL1, though. A bit of a disappointment actually.
35. Royal Rat Authority – Yeah, this objectively bad. One of the worst damn bosses in all Soulsborne. A decent aim on an upgraded bow will turn this fight from ridiculous gank twattery into mere hitbox hell. It’s not even a rat! Have you seen a rat that looks like that!? It’s a damn mangey mutt gank!
36. Lud and Zallen – Perhaps a surprise but despite the difficulty of the snowcats, these two are HP scaled to suit their gank and the time in which you may have to deal with two at once is minimal because you’ll either kill or be killed. They’re bad, but they’re not that bad.
37. Throne Watcher and Throne Defender – The real final boss of Scholar. Nashandra is less worrying than her curse orbs and Aldia is only as effective as you are actually stupid. These two, though – wow, what a shitty gimmick for the SL1. Requiring you not only manage your health, your stamina, any buffs you may have but also manage their HPs so you can kill them within about 15-20 seconds of each other to prevent the rez. If you refuse to use Brightbugs through your run these are the guys who will waver your conviction.
38. Darklurker – Half of this fight is like slapping an infant. There’s a danger you might get slapped back, but you’ll probably stop it, or it won’t hurt and you can just keep on slappin’. Then Darklurker decides to split into two and at that point you’re entirely at the mercy of your own capacity to actually split your vision and keep a conscious eye on two things at once, as well as multitasking by controlling a virtual avatar avoiding the things the two things you are watching are doing. This fight is so objectively bad it turned me into a pyromancer! Not kidding, this was the fight where I learned that DS2 has possibly the richest assortment of paths you can take as an SL1 character and I went full pyro build for him. Trying to get in close to one, watch the other and get stabs, slashes or smashes in did not work, but dancing around and dropping Flame Swathes? That changed the game for me.
39. The Shulva Sanctum Super Squad – aka The Gank Squad, aka Cerah the Old Explorer, Ancient Soldier Varg and the Afflicted Graverobber. It takes a lot to be considered objectively worse than this in my opinion. A lot. How a fight against three cosplayers is more tedious than giving a giant dressed as a dragon a mani-pedi is beyond me. How a fight against three pseudo-PvPers is more irritating than a poison dograt gank is beyond me. If you were to ask for my subjective worst, here it is. You want the subjective baddery, the subjective bullshit, this fight has it all. Try and take them on fairly and you’ll last seconds before a dragon tooth squashes you so your options are cheese or Benny Hill and neither of those feel in any way satisfying. You can’t even make fun of this fight, it’s like being invaded by a squad of ten year olds who think they’re being clever. Everybody loses in the end. Are they, objectively, the worst though?
40. Burnt Ivory King – You thought that previous gank was bad? How about a gank that makes you do more of a DLC to make it even remotely tolerable, and even then it will still throw a curveball at you for that gank by making your army of buddies about as potent as a fart in a hurricane! Add to that the fact that those buddies sacrifice themselves to make the gank stop and then act like total tools as the real boss comes out and does that boss have a weapon with lingering hitboxes? That bane of SL1? YOU BET HE DOES! Put a bonfire between the gank and the King and you’ve got a fan of this setup, as it is it’s objectively bad for SL1, SL100 or even SL-damn-1000! It’s a needless annoyance that at SL1 becomes a literal barrier. I said to my partner, who was watching as I did this fight, that once I got passed the gangwar section I’d have the boss beat within five attempts. It took me two. It took me many, many more than that to hold off a bunch of immolated imbeciles and stop my own Sid-from-Ice-Age’s in armour from dancing around in circles as they got whacked. Dull structure that ruins a good fight.
41. Aava the King’s Jank – It’s paws are actually twice the size they appear on screen and they are made of a special type of rubber that stretches physically without doing so visually. Combine that with a tongue made up of inescapable black holes and you have, objectively, the worst fight for SL1 in Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin.
My DS1 and DS3 lists for objective baddery have a tendency towards ranking via difficulty but DS2 really bucks that trend by ruining its bosses with –ank factors. Jank and Gank. Sometimes you can see what they were going for, but it was executed badly, sometimes you’re just left scratching your head and sometimes it is apparent that the Souls community shot itself in the foot with all its elitist nonsense and ‘git gud’ attitudes. There is a definite element in Scholar that while in other DS game you rage and call objective baddery because of the way fights are deliberately designed (e.g. Friede – who is still, objectively, the worst designed SL1 boss but only because she was never ‘designed’ with that in mind) but in DS2 a lot of the most objectively bad bosses are there because of accidents of design. Aava is number 1 not because of difficulty, length, moveset or anything like that. It’s because she’s a Dark Souls 3 speed boss in a Dark Souls 2 paced game with hitboxes that are nothing remotely like the limbs being used to hit and a grab attack that can literally suck you in from distance. Sir Alonne has a vacuum blade that ruins a fight that I would otherwise put somewhere 1-10 on the list because of how damn enjoyable it is, even if it is difficult!
With that said I thoroughly enjoyed every boss challenge on my scholar all-bosses run, but there were things that were objectively bad that I raged against and hated.
Welcome to the true most objectively bad bosses in Dark Souls II: Scholar of the First Sin – Environment Edition!
1. Huntsman’s Copse – This area killed my CoC challenge. My SL1 run was paused here for a very long time and only after a couple of hours of perseverance on returning did I realise I still had CoC on. The bridge approach to Executioner’s Chariot is a pain in the arse when one of those dark whip guys can knock you down so easily, and those narrow runs up to the bonelords are a thrown dagger to the dick.
2. Iron Keep/Run to Smelter Demon – Apparently Alonne knights have the anime power of doubling the speed and framerate of your game when running at you from far away, and there’re TONS of them. Think you can dodge and make it to that fogdoor? So did I, THEN I TOOK AN ARROW TO THE EVERYTHING! One of the most frustrating design elements for the SL1 runner is the ability to get stunlocked out of entering a damn door! Add in an uninspired design that feels most ‘gamey’ of all DS2s environments and it’s…it’s not good.
3. Shrine of Amana – Really? This is a shrine? A shrine to what? I reckon the only reason they think it’s a shrine is because every adventurer who goes there is like “HOLY FUCKING SHIT WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THIS PLACE!?” It’s a lake of dickbags, some of whom angrily throw magic at your face, some of whom are weird priests and what the hell even is a milfanito? A tiny Spanish milf!? Get outta here.
4. Black Gulch – Oh so you like exploring? Screw you, here’s a crossfire of poison spit, a potential Dark Spirit Forlorn hotspot with creepy hand monsters that jump out of the puddles you run by. It’d be higher up if it was more a marathon than a sprint.
5. Iron Passage – More like back passage.
6. Dark Chasm – How about we make you use a resource to repeat an area we filled with deliberately bullshit enemies so you can face that tough boss. How about we make that area about as visually inspired as “shit cave” too, while we’re at it.
7. Memory of the Old Iron King – You might not remember this area because the human brain has a great capacity for selective amnesia when it comes to traumatic events so my apologies for reminding you it’s that bit where Alonne Knights violate you in all your holes (including lachrymal ducts) whilst giant salamanders shoot fire so you can try and make it to a boss.
8. Majula – IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY, YOU CAN SEE THE WATER, BUT YOU CAN’T GET TO THE GOD DAMN BEACH!
9. Undead Crypt – One reason…DING DING, DING DING, DING DING, DING DING.
10. The Frigid Outskirts – Absolutely, positively, objectively the worst thing in any souls game ever. If I wanted to spend my time running away from giant, death-dealing horse-deer hybrids in a snowy hellhole I’d stick on my moosebait suit and move to fucking Sweden! Yeah you can carry a big stick and some repair powders so that you can fail to the boss and do it all over again. The worst.

Scholar is a weird one. I can see the faults in the game, but I'll also defend it. DS3 was such a rehash of DS1 that was itself very derivative of Demon's Souls that the amount of things 2 does different is worthy of applause in my book. That said, it's a difficult second album and it hits a lot of bum notes. The environments thing is not just a bit, it truly has some of the worst environmental design not just for SL1, but in general, of any soulsborne title. Some of those environments are a legitimate chore and the reason I would recommend savescumming to anyone doing all bosses. What's sad is I think if they had had a visionary behind the game who could tell them what to cut, what to highlight, what to emphasise and what to minimise DS2 had some major potential.

That's that, then. DS3 to go and then I suppose I'll have to do some kind of overall top objectively bad Souls moments or something. For now, peace, love and bonfires.
submitted by mercer88 to onebros [link] [comments]

How to Survive Camping: Senior Camp Rule #8 - don't make us throw you down the hill

I run a private campground. While I’m not safe, life has at least been better now that Jessie is dead. Again. The horse-eater has been quiet so I’m not too worried about its presence on my land yet. I mean, it’s a problem, but it’s not an urgent problem. I’ve been able to relax a little and enjoy the holiday weekend. The old sheriff even invited me out to his place to shoot off some confiscated fireworks and if you're like wow, dick move there, yes, that's the sort of company I keep.
Anyway, if you’re new here, you should really start at the beginning, and if you’re totally lost, this might help.
We have people that have been camping here for a long time, especially for our big events. I’m not sure where the senior camp stands in relation to the entire campsite during these events, but I believe they are one of the oldest in their area. Their seniority isn’t just age, however. Some of our problematic camps have been here for a while, after all, and that’s resulted in an unfortunate tendency to think they’re above the rules.
Not the rules. The other rules, like digging a proper fire pit or what time we close check-in for the evening. You know, the ones that just annoy me instead of anything supernatural.
The senior camp may argue with me every year about the incline at the front of their camp, but for a long time that was about it. Not causing trouble and following the rules is not enough to warrant being placed next to the thing in the dark, however. That sort of proximity to something so dangerous requires an understanding of the unnatural, a sense of the larger patterns, more than what I lay out in my rules.
I moved them to their current location shortly after I took over as the manager. Their area was growing crowded as camp sizes grew and I needed to either move someone out (which would make people unhappy) or move a camp into the area next to the thing in the dark’s lair. It’s a nice spot. There’s shade from the trees for most of the day, but it’s still open enough for a breeze and close enough to the road for easy unloading. We’ve had people try to move into that space without permission in the past, with predictable results. Most of the nearby camps were content to stay in their assigned land as a result, but I knew it would be an issue if I started moving people around without utilizing that land at all. We get enough new campers in a season that someone would cause trouble.
I contacted the senior camp’s land representative and asked if they’d be interested in moving to a better location. Still in the same area, I said, just a bit over. Next to where the thing in the dark lived. And I explained what that was.
Their representative was quiet for a bit and then said they’d talk it over. A few days later they got back to me and said they’d agreed. It’d keep other people out of that space and besides, it was a really nice spot.
And it wasn’t like they had no experience with unnatural things.
For a long time, they were unremarkable from any other returning camp. Then, during my freshman year of college, something happened to change that.
We have transient things pass through our land. The ancient creatures come and go as they please, of course. There are lesser creatures that are able to leave, however. I think there is something about their nature that allows this. Perhaps they roam as a rule and thus cannot be bound to one location. Or perhaps their hunting grounds are larger than my campsite and they can pass through boundaries easier. The one in particular that came to the campground that year was the sort that attached itself to one person in particular, until they were dead, and then moved on to another.
I think that is why it could come and go. It didn’t hunt in a particular area. It hunted people with no regard to where they were located.
To merely call it an incubus would be inaccurate, but that is a good starting place. It is called a lidérc. It is drawn to those who have recently lost their spouse or lover, a devil taking on the form of the lost beloved. It sneaks into the victim’s room while they sleep, removes the one boot that it wears on its human foot and sets it by the door, and then sits on the person’s chest and drinks their life away.
They do this until their victim is wasted away to death and then find another.
Similar to an incubus then, in that it causes nightmares and the feeling of suffocation at night. Different in its powers, in the victims it seeks, and its appearance. Keen readers may notice that I specified singular when I said it removed its boot from its human foot. What, then, is the other?
Lidérc are shapeshifters. They have association with one animal in particular.
The chicken.
Their other foot is a chicken foot.
The inhuman world has always been a little weird.
This is only one form of the lidérc. The other can be created. Don’t try this. It is a useful thing but… it will destroy you unless you are clever enough to escape doom, and in my experience, none of us are nearly as clever as we believe we are.
The summer of my freshman year was when the lidérc came to our land. Someone in the senior camp broke up with her boyfriend within the first two days of their two-week trip. Bad timing, I know, but I guess when you’re done, you’re done. Now, at the time the senior camp was up against the hill. They’re still close to the hill, but it wasn’t as handy as it was at their old spot. My campground isn’t in a mountainous location, but we’ve got some variable terrain and there’s a few areas where the hills are especially steep.
The children with ice wagons will rope themselves to the wagon like oxen with two pulling in front, two pushing from the back, and two stabilizing on either side to get up this hill. Seriously, tip them, they work hard.
One of my parent’s staff at the time responded to reports of a commotion in the area one night. They took a golf cart (we only had a handful of four-wheelers at the time and the family used them) down that way to see what the problem was. They arrived just in time to find the boyfriend being forcibly ejected from the campsite. Her campmates were carrying his stuff out of the camp and dumping it on the road.
When he tried to re-enter their area despite this subtle clue that he wasn’t welcome, they threw his belongings down the hill.
The camp employee decided not to intervene in what was clearly a properly handled domestic dispute and left.
Near the end of their trip, the camp representative stopped in to drop off their “yes we cleaned up after ourselves and filled the fire pit back in” paperwork. (I only require it for the big events where we have a lot of people) They told us about what had happened after that break-up, thinking it was best if my parents knew about it in case the thing came back. They didn’t know what it was, but my father was able to identify it later once he had his books and notes.
The senior camp has perfected this particular story. I do not think they’ve embellished it as much as my uncle did to his stories. I think they just have a flair for telling it that they’ve honed through repetition. It’s a useful story, after all. It teaches camp newcomers one of their own, internal, rules.
I don’t remember the full text of the rule. Some stuff about trying to get along and resolving arguments, getting an intermediary if you have to, and not being a “flaming asshole”. I know how it ends, however.
Senior camp rule #8: Don’t make us throw you down the hill.
I’ll tell the story as I heard it when I was a freshman.
The boyfriend didn’t try to come back after spending most of the night picking his socks and underwear off of tree branches. Some other camp was dumb enough to take him in and the senior camp lost track of him after that, because who really cared? But a few days later, the lidérc showed up. No one realized anything was amiss, as it came late at night after everyone was asleep. The young lady was exhausted during the day and attributed it to not sleeping well at night. She had nightmares, she said, and it felt like she was suffocating. She hadn’t suffered from sleep paralysis in the past, so while this was worrisome, she wrote it off as being a result of a nasty break-up.
As the days passed, she grew steadily weaker. Her campmates noticed and began to theorize what the problem could be. Stress, perhaps, and suggested she take more naps. Maybe she was having a bout of anemia and someone drove into town to buy red meat and vitamins. Finally, near the end of the trip, she was so lethargic she could barely rouse herself during the day and fell asleep in the middle of dinner.
Her campmates decided she should go home early and contact her doctor. They’d break down her tent and pack up for her in the morning. She’d go to bed early that night and get enough sleep to make the long drive home. Then, once she was out of earshot, the camp agreed to take turns periodically checking in on her through the night.
They didn’t know what was happening. They just felt that something was amiss. Some of the people in the nearby tents were having nightmares too, after all, of a dark presence that settled over them and made it feel like they were being crushed under the weight of their own blankets. They didn’t have the sort of knowledge my family does, but we have all heard stories, and the sense of being prey for something dark and terrible is etched into the human subconscious. None of them wanted to admit it out-loud, but they felt the unease of being hunted.
The lidérc didn’t come until the 2 AM shift. The person that took that shift usually got back to camp around that time, so it was no issue for her to check in on their campmate before going to bed herself. She arrived back to their camp just in time to see a large black chicken approaching the tent. She paused where she was, bemused by the absurdity of the situation. A chicken. There was farmland nearby, so perhaps it’d wandered off and made its way here. Should she catch it? Try to get it home in the morning?
Then the chicken stopped at the front of her campmates tent and its body began to grow. Its torso swelled, its head inflated like a balloon, and the feathers rippled and melted together and became clothing. Its skin grew pale and smooth and its comb deepened to crimson-black and became hair. It was a man, dressed in plain clothing and wearing a single cowboy boot on one foot.
Its other foot was still that of a chicken. The claws gleamed in the moonlight.
The camper crouched down between the tents. She was well hidden from view, but still she trembled in fear, for even where she stood she could feel the malice coming off this creature. An aura that gripped at her throat and made her blood run cold, nearly paralyzing her in fear. She felt her heart would simply stop if it turned its gaze on her, so she could only watch helplessly as it quietly unzipped the tent and crawled inside, pausing only to remove its one human boot and set it just outside the tent.
She didn’t know what it was, other than it was something unnatural, and surely to blame for her friend’s growing weakness.
This was before smartphones. There was no way for her to quickly google “chicken footed monster” and hope the search results provided a solution for her predicament. She didn’t dare wait until morning to go searching for answers, either, as her campmate’s growing weakness suddenly had an explanation and she wasn’t sure if the young woman would survive until the dawn.
She decided to create a distraction and then hopefully wake her friend up and get her out of there before the lidérc came back. Carefully, she stole over to the tent. The tent flap had been only half-zipped back up, leaving a slit barely wide enough for her to see the lidérc kneeling on the young woman’s chest. His hands were around her neck and her skin was pale and sweat beaded on her forehead as she tossed and turned weakly, struggling to breathe.
The sight of her friend’s suffering strengthened her resolve. She crept close, trembling with fear. It felt like she was pushing through a cold fog, one that repulsed her and crawled along her skin, making her nerves scream that she should run, she should flee, she should abandon her friend to her fate and save herself.
Then, she stretched out one hand, and carefully grabbed hold of the cowboy boot and dragged it towards her.
If an unnatural thing leaves behind anything, assume it’s important to them. That’s just how these things work.
She retreated as quickly as she dared and hurried over to the edge of the hill. The road was close by and to either side were trees, the underbrush rife with thickets and poison ivy.
“Hey asshole!” she yelled at the top of her lungs, waking up most of her nearby campmates. “I got your fucking boot!”
Then she yeeted the boot down the hill.
God I love that word.
The lidérc burst out of the tent and his eyes blazed like fire in the darkness. His hands were curled like claws and he dug his chicken foot into the earth, scoring it deep. Then his gaze fixed first on the hill where his boot had been thrown and then snapped to the camper.
She realized she’d miscalculated. As her fellow campers stirred, sleepy and confused, she realized that the creature wasn’t going to go after his boot first.
It was going to go after her.
She turned and ran. Down the road, veering off at the bottom and into the woods, aiming for some thick trees that grew in a cluster. She dove behind them as the lidérc came stalking down the hill, walking with a limp as it dragged its human foot behind it. The gravel cracked under its claws as it clutched at the dirt and stones.
“Where are you?” it hissed. “Come out and help me find my boot. And then once it is found, I’ll tear your heart out and eat it.”
Its words were spoken in a low voice, beguiling. The camper’s legs stirred before her mind could realize what was happening, stretching to rise, to bring her out of her hiding spot. Entranced by the lidérc’s request. She clasped her hands onto the tree she hid behind, digging her fingers into the rough bark, the muscles in her arms straining to hold the rest of her body still.
The lidérc paused. Only a few feet away now, his back half-turned towards her. There was a soft sound, the inhalation of air. He was trying to catch her scent. Hunting her out. She remained where she was, heart pounding so loudly she felt he’d be able to hear it soon enough.
Then the sound of a vehicle’s engine hummed from the top of the hill. Headlights flooded the road, painfully bright in the darkness, and one of the camp staff golf carts turned down the nearby road.
The lidérc let out a soft cry of surprise - and anger - and his body collapsed in on itself in an instant. Gone was the human frame, gone was the clothing, and gone was the bare human foot. In its place stood a small black chicken that quickly trotted away through the underbrush, flapping its wings and squawking with dismay.
The golf cart drew to a stop.
“Did I hear… a chicken?” the driver said to himself in confusion.
Only then did the camper rise from her camping spot. She waved to get his attention.
“Sure was,” she said. “It went that way. I was trying to catch it as I thought it belonged to a local farm.”
“Well damn. Probably does. I’ll see if I can round it up.”
The camper didn’t know what became of the lidérc after the camp employee left, but they like to tell the story that it spent the entire night being chased by people on golf carts, intent on corralling and dragging it back to some random farm, until they finally cornered it near dawn and carry it off by its legs to dump in a random chicken coop. The truth is that the employee radioed in to keep an eye out for a chicken and no one saw it and assumed it eventually found its way home on its own. Or was eaten by something unnatural.
It’s awfully hard to see a black chicken in the dark.
The camp stayed up the rest of the night, after their campmate told them what had happened. A handful took flashlights and went searching along the hill until they found the boot. The lidérc thankfully wasn’t willing to confront a group of people. The young lady was able to get a full night’s rest and went home the next morning. When she came back the next year, they set watch for the first few nights until they were convinced that the lidérc wasn’t coming back. My father stopped by as well, to tell them what he’d found out from his research and assure them that the theft of its boot was enough to keep it from ever returning.
Then, after my parents died and I took over, I realized that they had the instincts, the cooperation, and the willingness to deal with these unnatural things. I offered them the campsite closest to the thing in the dark and they accepted.
I wouldn’t say I’m friends with them. I check in periodically to make sure everything is okay and then I have to hear about how the incline at the front of their camp isn’t actually campable (it is) or complaints about their neighbors, but honestly, that’s a small price to pay for having someone competent taking up that plot of land and keeping people out of it.
As for the lidérc… I think it’s still out there. It’s never been seen again on our land. There were a few sightings from the locals after it vanished, but it didn’t seem to be hunting anyone. It was searching.
Trying to find its boot, limping through the fields, leaving behind a trail of footprints with one bare foot and one foot being the imprint of a chicken.
I know where the boot is hidden. One of the senior campers took the boot home with them and buried it in the backyard. My campground is an eight hour drive for him. I don’t think the lidérc is going to be finding his boot anytime soon.
I’m a campground manager. I feel it’s important to elaborate on the senior campers this time because I’ve asked for their help. You see, if I’m going to rescue and/or stop the lady in chains, I need to know how. Cutting off the chains is a risky endeavor and I’d like to know it’ll even work before I try. For a while I’ve been at a loss, but then I thought back on my previous rescue attempts and realized there was a source of help I haven’t consulted yet.
The dancers.
The senior camp is going to help secure their aid. It’s not without a price, however. They demanded that I mark that damn incline at the front of their camp as ‘uncampable land’ and I grudgingly had to agree. I’m sure it’ll cause problems when I tell their neighboring camp that they’re getting shifted a handful of yards, but the senior camp really is my best bet for this. They’ve got a great cook who also brews and she’s “got 10 kegs and can run 4 taps” and they’ve got enough manpower to man the bar and then some.
That’s right. I’ve asked the senior camp to throw the dancers a party. [x]
Read the full list of rules.
Visit the campground’s website.
submitted by fainting--goat to nosleep [link] [comments]

2020 Offseason Review: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Division: NFC South (7-9 2nd in the Division)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich
Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles

Intro: Let me Get Something off my Chest

A couple of months ago, I wrote the Buccaneers 32 Teams/32 Days Post. Looking back a it, I’m sticking to my guns on most of my analysis. There’s just…one….little….thing….we need to talk about. Regarding Jameis’s pending free agent status, I said:
There's also the question of QB. Jameis is also a UFA and I'd say there's a...40% chance we re-sign him. So who replaces him, and would an aging veteran QB like Brady or Rivers really be a marked improvement?
[Sneezes in Boston accent]
The answer is yes, Fencing Coach, you fawkin dumbass!
Did you really think that Jameis Winston was a bettah option than Tawm Fawkin’ Brady 6-time supah bowl champion and enemy of Rawjuh Fawkin’ Goodell? You were fawkin’ wrong!
Admit to the good people of Aw/NFL that you wuh just another paht of the fake news media that tried to say Tawm Bwady deflated the footballs and that Bill Belichick used the video cameras for the SpyGates!
And who would have evah guessed that we’d end up with Gronk! What a yeeyah! What an offseason you fawkin’ pessimist! We got the GOAT! Get ya Covid immunity TB12 pills and shove ‘em up yuh asshole!
[Snaps out of it]
Okay, now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, let’s get serious for a moment. This is the final Hail Mary of the underwhelming Jason Licht era, and aggressive moves were made this offseason, because the excuses have finally run out.
Since taking over the team in 2014, Jason Licht is on his third head coach (to be fair, Lovie Smith was not his choice) and only has a 34-62 (.35) record to show for, 0 playoff appearances, and only one winning season.
Meanwhile, a select list of his GM peers hired since include:
Big moves were made this offseason at the Quarterback position, bringing in a certain 6th round pick out of Michigan to compete with the ethereal and legendary Blaine Gabbert. Jameis was shown the door. And the result is about a case of beer’s worth of cap space and little depth across the roster. Buckle your Bucs, this is going to be a helluvah ride.

Top Offseason Stories

The Tompa Bay Gronkeneers: The biggest news of the offseason was giving Tom Brady a 2 yeaar, $50M contract (fully guaranteed). I won’t be blind to the fact that Tom Brady is 43 years old and clearly on the decline. But Tom Brady on the decline doesn’t have to carry the team on his back when he has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and Oterius Jabari Howard to throw to. Not to mention, people will be sleeping on the Buccaneer defense. They shouldn’t be (more on that later).
Had Jameis Winston cut his 2019 turnovers in half, the Buccaneers would have been a playoff team and he would have been in the MVP discussion. Of course, if my mother had wheels, she’d be a bicycle. The real value of the Brady deal will be in his accuracy and more conservative approach to quarterbacking. Let’s exclude Tom Brady’s rookie year and his 2008 season cut short by injury, and Tom Brady has averaged ~10 interceptions. In five seasons, Jameis averaged ~18 interceptions per season (and dozens more fumbles).
Numbers aside, Brady’s value will come in the swagger he brings to the locker room. The 2019 Bruce Arians signing brought in a coach with a track record of winning. Brady’s window is obviously short…very short. But the ride should be fun while it lasts.
Then of course, there’s Rob Gronkowski, one of football’s most beloved meatheads. One year post retirement, Gronk put the cleats back on and chose to follow Brady to Tampa (in exchange for a 4th and the Patriots’ 7th round pick). With OJ Howard and Cameron Brate already on the roster, the Gronkowski trade was a luxury move, but will give Brady his favorite all-time target in an offense largely unfamiliar to him.
Jason Licht’s approach of building from the outside-in has often worked to his detriment for a team that has always excelled at receiving skill position players…but little else. The Tompa Bay Gronkeneers will be fun to watch. Let’s hope Brady can capture lightning in a bottle.
The Jameis Winston Cult of Personality Ends: When Jameis Winston first entered the league, I declared that his ceiling was Brett Favre and his floor was Jay Cutler. Five seasons in and I feel like he got a quarter of the way past Cutler. So how will I remember Jameis? For those of you who were old enough to watch the Jerry Springer show and see a big reveal that Cletus’s wife was cheating on him with the next door neighbor, it sure was entertaining for everyone watching, except for Cletus himself. For five years, Bucs fans were Cletus. Fans of the NFL marveled at his “eating W’s” meme while many of us cringed in embarrassment. You saw 5,000 yards and 30 TD’s. We saw 30 INT’s and 6 more fumbles.
The worst part of the Jameis Winston era wasn’t the embarrassment on-field, but the divisiveness he generated off the field. Post-game discussion threads on Buccaneers were riddled with personal attacks should anyone have dared mentioned that perhaps we would have won the football game had he not thrown 18,000 picks. But the worst of all? The discussion that came from his third sexual assault allegation (no, this is not a typo. People forget there were two allegations at FSU). Three allegations were not enough to keep a large contingency of the fan base from defending him, justifying his actions, and of course the classic Redditor “she was just in it for the money” trope.
Jameis Winston signed with the Saints this offseason, becoming a division rival’s embarrassment. I still believe he has an on-field future in the league. Perhaps, for now, the comments section will allow for smoother sailing. Perhaps not.

2020 Outlook

Hard to believe that I’m now in Year 6 of writing these offseason reviews for Tampa, and outside of 2017 where I was wildly off on predicting our record, I’ve managed to fall within one victory/loss in each of the other four. The past two seasons, I’ve predicted our exact record. While Covid delays could impact the 2020 season itself, I predict the Tom Brady Bucs will go 10-6, win the wild card, and lose in the Divisional round.
Year My Prediction Actual
2015 7-9 6-10
2016 10-6 9-7
2017 10-6 5-11
2018 5-11 5-11
2019 7-9 7-9
2020 10-6 ???

Things I Like About the Bucs in 2020

Things That Scare me About the Bucs in 2020:

2020 Draft Analysis

Round/Pick Player Analysis
Round 1, #13 Overall Tristan Wirfs (RT – Iowa) Admittedly, I always struggle with evaluating OL positions. I thought Chance Warmack, Robert Gallery, and Jason Smith were generational talents. They were far from that. So take what I have to say with a grain of salt, and listen to people like Barian_Fostate who did an excellent breakdown of Wirfs and Jedrick Wills, with the evaluation noting some glaring flaws in Wirfs’ footwork and hand technique. There’s no denying that Wirfs’ athletic ability is deity level batshit. At 6’5, 320 pounds, he ran a 4.86 forty at the Combine, had a 36.5” vertical, and a 10’1 broad jump. Not to mention, the kid can straight up jump out of a pool and casually hang clean 500 pounds. I wanted to watch how Wirfs performed against some of his incoming peers in the NFL, so I watched his matchup against Pedophilia State University to see how he’d fare against Yetur Gross-Matos, 2nd round pick of the Panthers and future division opponent. The results were…underwhelming. YGM brought constant pressure throughout the game, and seemed to have Wirfs beat from his first step onward, but in the same game, his ability in the run game was eye opening (Example). But then you had cases of sheer lack of awareness on blitzes and also stunts that showed deep areas of weakness for Wirfs. One way or another, this was a necessary pick, and even if he doesn’t pan out at RT, Wirfs’ athleticism and gifted abilities in the run game will make him a long-term key part of the Bucs and a potential Guard candidate.
Round 2, #45 Overall Antoine Winfield Jr. (S – Minnesota) Antoine Winfield Jr.’s entrance into the league was a “you’re an old man” moment for us Redditors in our 30’s who grew up watching his “Hall of Very Good” father. This was a pretty pick. While Winfield is of course a safety, the very first thing that stood out to me watching his tape was his pass rush ability. Yes, his pass rush ability. The first couple of clips I put on of Winfield had him perfectly timing a snap from the box and immediately in the backfield by the time the QB had the ball in his hands. The second thing that stood out was his nose for the ball, particularly in clutch situations. As Joe Theismann simply stated: “big players make big plays,” and that couldn’t have been more true of Winfield, who had big time game saving interceptions against both Fresno State and Penn State. Winfield was my favorite pick of the Buccaneers draft class, and what he lacks in size he makes up for in speed and an excellent nose for the ball. Keep an eye out for this one.
Round 3, #76 Overall Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – Vanderbilt) Ke’Shawn Vaughn was one of the harder players to scout from this Buccaneer class, simply because it looked like he would have been better off with an offensive line of obese, beefy toddlers than whatever Vanderbilt rolled out for him. Nearly every snap I viewed of him, he rarely had a clean hole and was hit in the backfield the moment he touched the ball. Like, seriously, what is this? Vaughn’s biggest strengths to me showed up on tape with designed outside runs. Between the tackles, he showed little elusiveness, and a similar issue I saw with former Buccaneer pick Jeremy McNichol is that Vaughn tended to make multiple cuts before turning upfield. Not a good thing. Unlike a glaring weakness I saw in McNichols’ complete inability to block, it’s an area where Vaughn succeeded with flying colors. This, along with his adequate pass catching abilities (28 receptions for 270 yards in 2019) will make him a valuable 3rd down back in the beginning of his career (assuming RoJo is anointed the feature back). There are some traits in a RB that can’t be coached, like vision. There are other things like running upright with high pad level, a weakness I frequently saw with Vaughn that can be taught. Vaughn crosses me as a valuable utility player who may get looks as a feature back should RoJo continue to struggle. The value was there with his 3rd round selection, but expectations for his upside should be kept in check.
Round 5, #161 Overall Tyler Johnson (WR – Minnesota) A lot of the Buccaneers crew is pretty high on the Tyler Johnson pick. Pro Football Focus (PFF) had him top 50 on their big board and a Round 2 grade. I just don’t see it. Not at all, in fact. For a guy who stands at a mere 6’1 and is expected to play slot receiver, his speed and separation stand out as glaring weaknesses on tape. What I do like however, is his footwork coming off the line. Most of the time he’d beat his receivers within the first 5-7 yards off the line, but when it came to the deep ball I didn’t see a lot of “wow” factor. Tyler Johnson, I think, will be a reserve WR, which is exactly what you want from a 5th round pick. But I don’t see him as the massive steal many other fans did.
Round 6, #194 Overall Khalil Davis (DT – Nebraska) Played alongside his twin brother Carlos at Nebraska (who went one round later to the Steelers). I watched Davis’s game against Wisconsin and he looked to me like he’d fit best as a backup 5-tech. Not particularly explosive with a slow first step, and there were numerous occasions when he did penetrate the backfield but had terrible angles on the RB. Mind you, he was playing against Jonathan Taylor and a stalwart OL, but you want to see flashes of brilliance, even against good competition. Did not see anything that made me say: “this guy’s going to make our final roster.”
Round 7, #241 Overall Chapelle Russell (LB – Temple) I was able to find little tape of Russell, but one area where I do trust Jason Licht is in his ability to scout LB’s. I’m not going to pretend I know anything about Russell. I don’t.
Round 7, #245 Overall Raymond Calais (RB – Louisiana Lafayette) Calais’s best shot to make the roster will likely be as a return man, where he excelled at Louisiana Lafayette. Based on the limited tape I saw of him, I saw flashes of Felix Jones for his ability to get big gains off of draw plays in the shotgun. Obviously a longshot to make the roster.

Schedule Predictions

Week Opponent Prediction Analysis
Week 1 @Saints 27-24 Bucs (1-0) Bucs pass rush finds a way to get to Brees. Fun fact: this will be the oldest matchup of QB’s ever in NFL history…until the Bucs play the Saints again in week 9.
Week 2 Panthers 34-20 Bucs (2-0) Panthers are no doubt in rebuild mode right now. In the past two matchups, Bucs run game has managed to stifle Christian McAffrey. Keep an eye on rookie Yetur Gross-Matos. I think he’ll have a more immediate impact than even 1st round pick Derrick Brown.
Week 3 @Broncos 37-28 Bucs (3-0) Always a challenge to play at Mile High on the road, but I think the Bucs defense will manage to shut down a young and budding Broncos offense. On a Broncos note, I’ll never understand Jeudy being the 2nd WR off the board (let alone the 2nd Bama receiver taken). Best route runner I’ve seen enter the league since OBJ.
Week 4 Chargers 28-21 Chargers (3-1) No, I’m not too high on Justin Herbert, but when the Bucs play a rookie QB, I’m usually prone to pick the other team. For some reason, no matter the Head Coach and/or defensive coordinator, the Bucs crumple into fetal position against rookies.
Week 5 @Bears 31-13 Bucs (4-1) If Foles’ performance against the Bucs last year is any indication, they have his number. Pray that Mitch Trubisky doesn’t start. In his last outing against Tampa, he threw 6 TD’s. He did that as a rookie, mind you. Remember what I said about Bucs against rookie QB’s?
Week 6 Packers 28-24 Packers (4-2) Rumors of Aaron Rodgers’ demise are greatly exaggerated. It’s a team that’s just complete enough on both sides of the ball that I find it surprising so many are writing them off.
Week 7 @Raiders 34-31 Bucs (5-2) Here’s another team that is starting to form well under the cracker Mike Mayock. Raiders will be as good as Carr is in Gruden’s offense, and while he improved somewhat in Chucky’s offense by the end of year 2, this is a team at the tipping point between playoffs and an outright QB replacement.
Week 8 @Giants 37-17 Bucs (6-2) Though rookie Daniel Jones (sense a trend here?) shredded the Bucs with gusto last year, Bucs run defense should be able to neutralize Saquon, and despite a good rookie showing, I don’t have much faith in the long term prospects of Daniel Jones.
Week 9 Saints 20-17 Saints (6-3) Can usually count on the Saints and Bucs to split the division series. And once again, the oldest QB matchup ever. Put on some episodes of MASH. Get your Bingo cards ready. It’s geriatric QB time.
Week 10 @Panthers 41-21 Bucs (7-3) Will there be a season by this point? I don’t know. But I still like the Bucs to sweep the series with the Panthers this season.
Week 11 LA Rams 24-17 Rams (7-4) Rams offense is all of a sudden looking less like the powerhouse it was from a few years ago, but their defense is still nasty. Aaron Donald will make any QB poop their pants, including Tom Brady. This will be a violent defensive battle and I think the Rams will take the edge.
Week 12 Chiefs 37-27 Chiefs (7-5) For years on NFL going back to his time at Texas Tech, I told you all to get on board the Mahomes canoe. Love seeing him already building his Madden legacy. I’m just not going to bet against him right now.
Week 13 Bye N/A I have no way of confirming this, but I’m fairly certain during the bye week Bruce Arians clears out his office and runs an illegal cockfighting ring with his assistant coaches. You can’t convince me I’m wrong.
Week 14 Vikings 31-28 Bucs (8-5) Vikings remain a balanced team on offense and defense and the Zim Zamm still can’t be flim flammed. Close game here that will be a defensive battle with a few big time plays on offense sprinkled in.
Week 15 Falcons 34-27 Falcons (8-6) I’m glad to see Raheem Morris back in a DC position after seeing him work his way back up the coaching ranks. Always one of my favorite Buccaneer coaches despite his (many) flaws. I pick the Falcons in our first matchup because of one man and only one man: Julio Jones. Jones has now played a full 16 games in his career against Tampa, coming up with a staggering 116 catches for 1,841 yards and 11 TD’s. That’s cruelty.
Week 16 Lions 41-14 Bucs (9-6) I have a feeling by this point in the season, Fat Patricia will be one of the first Head Coaches fired and the Lions will be staffed by Interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell. The Bucs will be playing a team with a wounded ego ready to be put down like Old Yeller.
Week 17 Falcons 28-3 Bucs (10-6) Bucs fight hard to squeak into the playoffs, their first appearance since 2007.
Final Projection: Bucs win wild card, lose in the Divisional Round

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Offense

QB- Tom Brady: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 4,438 yards, 67.1% completion percentage, 33 TD’s, 13 INT’s
WR1 – Mike Evans: At only 26 years old, Mike Evans already sits at 128th all-time on the career receiving yards list, and has a chance to pass [checks notes] Michael Crabtree on the all-time list this season. In every season in the league, Evans has surpassed 1,000 yards and has become a hallmark of consistency, even with the suspect supporting cast around him. Having an accurate QB for the first time in his career will be a huge benefits to Evans. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 70 receptions, 1,213 yards, 6 TD’s
WR2 – Chris Godwin: Godwin had a brilliant breakout last season, earning 2nd Team All-Pro honors (that probably would have been 1st team had his season not been cut short by injury). While Evans might be the bigger threat, Godwin is among the most complete receivers in the league. A fantastic route runner with sure hands—and perhaps his most overlooked quality is his blocking. Find me a WR who does it better right now. You won’t. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 77 receptions, 1,387 yards, 7 TD’s
RB – Ronald Jones: RB is one of the few positions where fans can reasonably expect instant production from a player when he transitions from the college ranks to the pros. As a rookie, RoJo was a mega dud who could barely find the field in the Koetter era. He took a huge step forward in year 2 (724 yards, 4.2 ypc) but still often disappeared in games and lacked the pass protection skills that are so necessary in Arians’ offense. RoJo will have Vaughn to take off some of his workload, but I still see RoJo as one of the weakest links on an otherwise complete offense. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 808 Rushing yards (4.2 YPC), 5 TD’s
TE – Rob Gronkowski: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 41 receptions, 614 yards, 6 TD’s
LT – Donovan Smith: Donovan Smith provides as much protection as Jeffrey Epstein’s guards when he was on suicide watch. While Tom Brady tends to release the ball far faster than Winston, the Arians offense designed for Brady better be getting the ball out fast. 43 year old QB’s aren’t meant to take the kinds of hits Winston did. Let’s hope that Tristan Wirfs is able to prove himself a viable option on the left side. We’ll be able to get out of Donovan Smith’s contract after this season with no cap ramifications. On a side note, there’s a decent change Donovan Smith will opt out of his contract due to Covid concerns. And I wouldn’t blame him one bit.
LG – Ali Marpet: Marpet continues to be the most reliable piece of our OL. Like Lavonte, a continually unheralded player who you can rely on to go toe-to-toe with the league’s best interior DL while manhandling the dregs of the NFL. I thought last season would be Marpet’s shot at a 2nd Team All-Pro, but he was passed over once again. Love Marpet.
C – Ryan Jensen: Jensen’s first year with the team was free agent bust material. He seemed to thrive more in the Arians offense and we saw marked improvement in all facets of his game last year. Overpaid for his value? Definitely. Living up more and more to the contract we gave him? Yup.
RG – Alex Cappa: When Jason Licht rolled the dice on small school Humboldt State product Alex Cappa, he may have been expecting the next Ali Marpet. In his first full season as a starter, there were things to be encouraged by and I’m a little more bullish on Cappa than most of the fan base. Though he allowed 31 pressures on 562 pass snaps (roughly 6% pressure rate), I saw Cappa’s confidence growing as the season went on. His third season will tell us what his true ceiling in this league is. Right now, his floor isn’t Garrett Gilkey, but his ceiling ain’t Earl Grey.
RT – Tristan Wirfs: See above analysis.

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Defense

EDGE – Sack Ferret: The Sack Ferret was brought on a 1 year, $4 million deal last season. I predicted he’d be a 5.5 sack guy and then probably hit free agency again. Just like we all expected, he went off and led the league in sacks with 19.5 (more than his previous five years in the league combined) and earned himself the franchise tag. Barrett has quickly become a fan favorite, and while I don’t see him replicating his majestic 2019 season, I still think he’ll be the same terror he’s been off the edge. Probably wrong projected stats: 12.5 sacks.
0-Tech - Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea: Running on the Buccaneers in 2019 was damn near impossible, so much so that the team only allowed 73.8 rushing yards per game. That success started up front with Vita Vea, who has quickly emerged as the league’s top 0-tech. Unfortunately, like his forefathers in Vince Wilfork and Casey Hampton, he’s likely to spend his career as a valuable defensive cog who receives few to no career accolades due to the “unsexiness” of being a two-gap space eating defender. So NFL, here’s a homework assignment for you. Watch Vea on All-22 if you have some time while on Covid lockdown. You will see one of the most absurdly athletic big men in the league who is your definition of immovable object. His progress last year was a joy to watch and he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite players. Oh, and he’s the best TE on the Bucs. By far. Probably wrong projected stats: 2.5 sacks, 2 receiving TD’s.
5-Tech – Ndamukong Suh: We brought Suh back on another 1 year deal. No, he’s not the player he once was (he’s even refrained from curbstomping genitals in Tampa…so far), but his attitude he sets on the field has been a welcome change compared to the namby-pamby milquetoasts on our DL from the past. Suh’s value will come mostly in the run game. His sack producing days are long gone. Probably wrong projected stats: 3.5 sacks.
EDGE – Jason Pierre-Paul: It’s [checks notes] August, and Jason Pierre-Paul hasn’t had an offseason accident. Praise the football Gods. Despite starting in only 8 games last year due to a serious auto accident, JPP managed 8.5 sacks. At 31, father time hasn’t quite caught up with him yet. Probably wrong projected stats: 9.5 sacks.
ILB – Lavonte David: The good part of Lavonte David bouncing inside last season to Will is that he no longer got grouped in the same bucket as sack-producing 3-4 OLB’s who beat him out for All-Pro nods nearly every year. Even at 30, Lavonte only seems to be getting better, and his instincts and smarts continue to essential to the defense. Though Lavonte is one half of the Mike tandem and has been one of the league’s best LB’s’ for all of 8 seasons, I don’t think he’s going to be the centerpiece stud. Keep Devin White’s name at the forefront of your mind, which leads me to... Probably wrong projected stats: 3.5 sacks, 3 INT’s
ILB – Devin “Get Live 45” White: If you’ve read any of my posts here for the last 5+ years, you would see I don’t take a blind homer approach with player evaluation. Not once have I predicted a Buccaneer would win the MVP award, nor have I predicted a Buccaneer would win DPOY. In fact, only once have I ever predicted we’d be a playoff team. Now that preamble is done, let me say it outright: Devin White is going to win Defensive Player of the Year in Year 2. What? Mikes never win, you say. And you’d be mostly correct. In fact, Vegas odds don’t even have Devin White listed in their top 10. Here’s what I saw from Devin White in the last half of his rookie season: an absolutely insane nose for forcing the fumble, excellent pass rush abilities, and smarts that put him in the backfield often before the RB even had the ball in his hands. I saw enough from him to believe his leap in year 2 is going to be similar to that of Luke Kuechly’s where he won DPOY in his second year in the league. Wherever the ball is, Devin White will be there. You’re going to see one of the league’s dominant defensive enforcers for a long, long time. Probably wrong projected stats: 6.0 sacks, 5 INT’s, 6 FF’s.
FS – Antoine Winfield Jr.: See above analysis. I think we’re also going to see Justin Evans get cut Probably wrong projected stats: 2.0 sacks, 2 INT’s
SS – Jordan Whitehead: Jordan White is the most underrated player on the Buccaneers defense, in my eyes. No, not Lavonte, because people talk about how underrated he is all the time to the point he’s not so underrated anymore. Whitehead’s mistakes went down drastically last year and he has a knack for being where the football is. Really like him and could see some big plays from him this season. Probably wrong projected stats: 1.0 sacks, 3 INT’s
CB – Carlton Davis: Bruce Arians doesn’t give empty praise, but he recently called Carlton Davis a top ten CB in the league, an assessment I’m inclined to agree with. He was battle tested big time in year 2, getting targeted 105 times and only allowing 52.4% of those balls thrown his way to be completed. He was able to shadow the best, and his 18 pass breakups are indicative of a guy with great awareness. And the funny thing is, he’s not even the CB I’m highest on with this roster. Probably wrong projected stats: 4 INT’s
CB – Jamel Dean: For a guy who came in as a 3rd round rookie, Dean exceeded expectations and then some. His first game as a starter came against the Seahawks, there’s no sugarcoating it—he got owned. But what I saw was a guy who stayed stride for stride with his receiver with little help over the top. By the end of his rookie season, he was looking like a shutdown corner. This is the CB I’m most excited for in 2020. Kid’s got a bright future. Probably wrong projected stats: 3 INT’s
CB – Sean Murphy-Bunting: When I’m wrong, I admit I’m helluh wrong, and with Murphy-Bunting, I was helluh wrong. Yes, it’s been only one season and things could still go south, but I was baffled when we passed on Greedy Williams in favor of SMB.

Non-Buccaneer Predictions for the Season

  1. My 2018 breakout player prediction was Patrick Mahomes. Last year, it was Joshua Jacobs and Corey Davis (oops). This year, you need to watch J.K. Dobbins (rookie, Baltimore), N’Keal Harry (2nd year, NE). Perhaps not a true breakout, but I think Calvin Ridley will surpass 1,000 yards and become an even bigger complement to Julio Jones.
  2. MVP will go to Russ Wilson. DPOY will go to Devin White (and if you’ve been reading these posts long enough you know I don’t usually go the homer approach). OPOY will go to Patrick Mahomes. COTY will go to Cliff Kingsbury.
  3. The NFC Championship will be played between the 49ers and the Cowboys. The Cowboys will win. The AFC Championship will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots. The Chiefs will win. The Chiefs will repeat in the Super Bowl, defeating the Cowboys.
  4. Last year I wrote: “Sam Darnold isn’t going to amount to much as an NFL QB. Not this year, and probably not ever.” I’ll repeat it this year too. But let me add one guy to that list: Tua Tagovailoa.
  5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t the superstar you think he is. I think his career will wind up like Joseph Addai’s: a guy who had a few flash in the pan seasons but never among the top backs. That’s not a bad thing, I would just cool expectations on him.
  6. The teams with the highest potential to land a top 5 pick, in no particular order: Lions, Jaguars, the Washington Football team (I feel like an idiot even typing that), Bears, Jets. Dark Horse: Eagles.
  7. Coaches who have the hottest seats: Fat Patricia, Dan Quinn, Adam Gase, Doug Marrone, Bill O’Brien (as coach and GM).

Shoutouts

Shoutouts to my fellow mods on Buccaneers and NFL. It's a pleasure working with you all every day and shooting the shit with dank memes. And of course, much love to platypusofdeath who puts an insane amount of work into this series every year. Thank you for all you do.
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BELMONT PARK FREE HORSE RACING PICKS - (6-27-20) Free Horse Racing Picks and Predictions for 5/19/2020 Horse Racing Picks and Predictions  Gulfstream Park Race #8  Friday, May 8 Horse Racing Betting Tips & Guide from Bettor.com - YouTube Horse Race Betting system  Prediction system  Query at+ ...

Click here (or view the right sidebar) for the description of the icons on the prediction form. You can also see the class of the last race run by looking at "Prev Race:" on my tip sheet. This is simply a quick indication of the track, class, and finish position of the horse in his last race (e.g. 3/7 means the horse finished third out of 7 ... Horse Racing is the bread and butter of the sports betting world and here at Bet & Skill we have a whole team dedicated to making you the biggest profit. We pride ourselves on our horse racing predictions and you’ll find each and every one on this very page. Find here our horse racing betting tips for today and tomorrow! Horse Racing Betting Tips. 1X2, Under/Over 2.5 goals, HT/FT tips, Both to score.Sportus thousands of betting tips added daily across 13 sports. Free mathematical Horse Racing/Horse Racing predictions and tips to help you to choose the best picks for you. Here are all of our Horse Racing betting tips for today and tonight. Match odds (1X2). Read the latest horse racing tips from Betfair experts. Best Horse Racing Tips Best Horse Racing Odds Browse Betting Offers Horse Racing Tips for free, today’s best advice & predictions from the OLBG horse racing tipsters. See which bets they recommend and learn why. Today’s horse racing tips from all countries and courses are listed on this page. Racing predictions at OLBG are available from 9 countries and over 150 courses.

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BELMONT PARK FREE HORSE RACING PICKS - (6-27-20)

http://horse-racing.bettor.com Online Horse Racing Betting Tips, techniques, odds, picks, line and How to bet for Horse Races Fans Gulfstream Park daily horse racing picks and predictions for Friday, May 8, 2020 from Howard Barish, courtesy of our friends over at GamingToday! About Gaming Today GamingToday is the nation’s ... Easiest method of horse racing betting you've ever come across! NFL Picks and Predictions for Week 14 (NFL Picks Against the Spread - NFL Odds from Vegas) - Duration: 4:06. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 10,738 views 4:06 bettingexpert is the social network for sports betting. Subscribers must be 18+. On this channel, you will find daily tips videos from our community of prove...

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